Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Ok pet.

Gosh, I wish I was married to a doctor. I'd probably have a much more thorough grasp of epidemiology.

I would say 75-80% of experts in this field are predicting a pandemic.

And the replication rates and mortality rates are the same as the Spanish Flu in 1918 which killed more people than WW1 and WW2 combined.

I'm an optimist by nature, but independent experts (that is, those not associated with the Govt or WHO which both have a stake in ensuring that there is no panic) seem fairly sure that a pandemic is looming.

Obviously they can't be certain, but I think to ignore that is a little blinkered IMO.

That being said, no-one has to prepare. Just bear in mind that if you wait until it's obvious that you need to prepare, it will be too late as it's the exact same time the rest of the population will start to 'prepare' and at that stage it won't be 'preparing' it will quickly become 'panic buying'.

I will be sitting on my sofa drinking my gin stocks and being glad I'm not trying to fight for loo roll.

In Hong Kong today there was an armed robbery of toilet roll!

It's not the thought of getting the virus personally that worries me (even though I'm in an at risk group) but all the knock on effects to our healthcare system, schools, exams, small businesses (including my own). Also worried about my vulnerable friends and neighbour's.

Source: armed robbers steal toilet roll

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/world-asia-china-51527043

I was in Waitrose earlier and the loo roll shelves are almost bare. Not sure if that was in response to the armed robbery story!

I'm married to a doctor too and he is bricking it. In fact he's the one who is telling me to get more food in, reminding the children to wash their hands, and telling me to keep the car topped up with petrol.

I mean I know China's reducing confirmed case numbers seem positive on the face of it.

But even as an optimist I think - they're still getting 1500-2000 cases per day even when they have 760 million people under various levels of lockdown.

That is 10% of the world's population under various types of lockdown measures.

From a population perspective Hubei is just a little smaller than the UK (59 million).

So it's like everywhere in the UK is on full lockdown:

• no schools/colleges/uni
• all people with known symptoms have been taken into makeshift quarantine facilities
• other suspected cases are locked into their houses
• all funerals have stopped with bodies sent for immediate cremation
• only one person is allowed out every other day for food
• a mask must be worn in public at all times
• many (most?) of the factories and offices are closed unless

...and still have 1500+ new cases per day?

I know a lot of people are finding these reduced numbers comforting but they're actually pretty concerning to me.

I sort of don't really get how people look at that and go..."Oh, that seems fine"

Also the Westerdam cruise could be the next European 'spark'

Apparently all passengers passports were checked and it was confirmed that none had been in China in the previous 14 days.

The cruise disembarked from HK two weeks ago when the reported number of cases in HK was very low.

...and yet an American woman onboard (who originally tested negative) has tested positive?

It begs the question - where on earth did she catch it?

Either it must be from crew or from her time in HK(?), either way she must have caught it from someone who wasnt in China and was undiagnosed....?

Which then implies (as per the experts) there are significantly more cases out there 'in the wild' so to speak.

Also - we now have hundreds of passengers from that ship who have scattered back across the globe who could be infected (they may not be, but no-one knows)

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/17/coronavirus-uk-trying-contact-britons-left-cruise-ship-cambodia

EgonSpengler, that actually made me feel better. The NHS is obviously monitoring ALL patients who end up requiring major interventions for pneumonic type illnesses and are on the look out for internal community infections rather than just those from suspected regions of the world. I think that's the point at which we really need to start getting concerned... where Japan is now, basically.

@EagleVisionSquirrelWork 🤣

@wheresmymojo
I kind of wonder if here in the west we've become so anaesthetised to the harsh realities of life that it's easy for people to stay in denial about things like this. For centuries we've been comparatively safe from most of the terrible things that happen in poorer parts of the world. Now, for various reasons, the west is having to cope with things like uncontrollable fires, floods, extreme weather and now disease epidemics, and many of us just can't compute how to react. It's as though people's brains just say, no, that can't be happening, not to us.

@EagleVisionSquirrelWork it's called normalcy bias. Have a read of this article about it. This is exactly what is happening medium.com/@thomasdolphin/surrounded-by-fire-hoping-for-the-best-e7f07fa9d9c6

The Chinese CDC have published info on all cases to date.

Basically good news for all those under 50, pretty bad news for over 50s and getting progressively worse the older you get.

From the US CDC website these are the mortality stats (deaths/total estimated infections) by age band for the seasonal flu

Under 50: 0.02%
50-64: 0.05%
Over 65: 0.8%
Total: 0.1%

According to the data published on COVID today the same info:

Under 50: 0.2%
50-59: 1.3%
60-69: 3.6%
70-79: 8.0%
80+ 14.8%

I mean in one sense it's better this way than Spanish Flu which was (very unusually) worse for young adults, but obviously the mortality rates are very high for 60+

Of course apparently on MN we don't care about anyone over 60 (which people keep saying as though their own parents, uncles/aunts, work colleagues, etc are somehow going to be missed by the virus).

Yes to normalcy bias.

A similar thing has happened in the floods. I read one account today from someone who lived next to the river where there were severe flooding warnings issued by the EA. They were fully aware of the warnings. They went to bed and were shocked to find that their house had been flooded; with no sense of irony they went on to say they just didn't expect it (even though they'd said themselves there'd been severe flooding warnings for that river in that area).

PDF of the paper from China CDC can be viewed here

github.com/cmrivers/ncov/blob/master/COVID-19.pdf

The NHS is obviously monitoring ALL patients who end up requiring major interventions for pneumonic type illnesses and are on the look out for internal community infections rather than just those from suspected regions of the world. I think that's the point at which we really need to start getting concerned... where Japan is now, basically.

I haven't had chance to watch the CMO video yet but agreed that I didn't know this and it is reassuring.

It does mean though that because of the c. 2 week lag from infection to pneumonia onset we probably wouldn't expect to see any quite yet but perhaps in 1-2 weeks.

Still, better than I think a lot of countries have in place in terms of knowing when it is spreading in the community.

Thanks @ofwarren, that was an interesting read. I wonder if prepper types have some kind of protective factors in their psychological make-up, as I recognise myself as actively not conforming to some of the stereotypes criticised (for lack of a better word) in that piece - Iike, I always listen to safety announcements and I never ignore fire alarms, and I tend to set parameters for action. (But contrary to some of the accusations being bandied on the thread, I'm not a panicker or a conspiracy theorist, and I have a really good grasp of risk and statistical analysis.) Funnily, I have that book 'Unthinkable' that's mentioned but never got around to reading it. Am thinking I might dust it off for bedtime reading tonight...

When people say that they're probably going to be okay as they're not in one of the at-risk groups, I'm kinda giving them the benefit of the doubt and thinking maybe they mean that if they don't get seriously ill & require hospitalization it frees up beds for other people? Rather than saying it in an "I'm all right Jack" way?

Arse. Over 50. Mum over 80.

Closest other relies over 50 and have other medical issues. Friends mainly over 50, some well into 70s.

Kids have conditions/disabilities.

Many people with kids can have parents under 50, or not much over.

Diamond princess Americans have been on a plane with 14 confirmed cases. Hope they are isolated, treated recover, avoid catching it.

How can anyone look at the diamond princess and think, yeah it's ok... OK, OK, I know, normalcy bias

The other example of normalcy bias I've seen is in the videos of the 2004 Tsunami.

So many people are standing on the beach watching a gigantic wave heading towards them. You see people still standing there watching way after other people have screamed and run.

I've just watched David Abels most recent update and he's saying there's ambulances there again. I really really hope there's no more positive cases but usually when he sees the ambulance there's more positive people being taken off.

He's done the right thing turning comments off, the youtube community where absolute twats to him last night/yesterday.

I keep swinging from feeling slightly reassured to totally panicked