Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I'm not doing any negative measures. Holiday booked for July. Still blowing every spare penny doing up my house. I'm not one for not living in the moment. Today we are all good, life goes on. A fee friends loves have crumbled within a year from cancer, violent assault. Life is very short as it is

We are doing home improvement stuff still. But DH is desperate to go skiing at Easter and we’re not booking that. We’ll wait and see what the next couple of weeks bring.

@justdeckingthehalls1 is it anything to do with this rumour from last week? www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/st-peters-hospital-responds-coronavirus-17725012

Possibly. They say no confirmed cases but are ominously quiet on suspected ones.

I can't even find anything to confirm it's closed, let alone for what reason

I would not be on the save list either, nor would DD, and possibly Ds.

I may wander down to Wick's and get an extra fuck off expensive mask. Useful for DIY if not for virus. On the plus side the children are youngish and likely to do better.

The Church of England advice was given out at communion.

Also I am so glad others are puzzling the Chinese actions compared to the British actions.

I check the news every morning and evening and as time has gone on the story is becoming less and less prominent. As others have said, China’s actions are totally at odds with the narrative at play here in the UK.

twitter.com/Secret_Beijing/status/1229455897199431681

Dr John Macdonald's take on the current src="https://www.youtube-nocookie.com/embed/1SNvwumM05" frameborder="0" allow="accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture" allowfullscreen>E

I suspect the hard word has been put on the media.

It’s just making me more unsure which way to go... so I’m just holding tight for now.

‘Negative prepping’ a bit, yes. Agreed whole heartedly with my mum that she needs to leave it to see how things go re coming over for a holiday this year (to be fair that may not be strictly down to Cv🤣), not planning any holidays overseas this year (but again, to be fair, they tend to be a bit spur of the moment),not ordering the kitchen (again tbf that’s also ‘too much effort’ but also yes, holding back on some purchases & getting some paperwork in order)

I've linked to this as he is normally very cautious and a down to earth Northerner. He's definitely not prone to sensationalism . His conclusion is more than likely, we need to prepare for the possibility of major spread. Which is confirming most people's intuition on here.

I do find the lack of media coverage these last few days, very odd.

@teta. That’s pretty sobering

Good news update from WHO - Virus causes mild disease in four out of five people infected.

The head of the WHO said Chinese medical data shows that more than 80 percent of patients have mild symptoms and will recover, while 14 percent suffer from severe complications such as pneumonia, 5 percent are in critical condition and 2 percent die from the disease.

"It appears that COVID-19 is not as deadly as other coronaviruses, including SARS and MERS," Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told reporters in Geneva.

But has there been a lack of media coverage? The Guardian for one has had a daily live news feed dedicated to Coronavirus and there has been a huge amount in the press about the two cruise ships.

There isn't actually much to say about the UK at the moment. I'm sure the media will be all over it again as soon as another case is diagnosed here.

That's not good news, that's exactly the same news we have been looking at for weeks now but with a pretty bow on it.

@YoursTunbridgeWells Buy your DD some new shoes. And honestly review whether your attitude to this has become unhealthy.

It is good news - still horrendous for those in China but medically deemed a mild disease for most people, less serious compared to others and only one person in the UK still in hospital .

We’re currently on a skiing holiday enjoying friends and family. Have booked our next holiday. It’s not healthy to put your life on hold.

That isn’t good news at all. That’s a really high death rate and an unmanageable serious/ critical rate. Plus the replication rate is really high. And yes it’s exactly the same message we’ve had for the past couple of weeks

I'm not putting my life on hold.

You've just dressed the same shitty stats up and called it good news. It's exactly the same news.

I suppose it might be good news for you if you are confident you are going to be in the 'I'm alright Jack' 80%.

As I said it is really bad in China but why is a disaster in the UK. The NHS have done an excellent job and everyone has recovered, in some cases quicker than many viruses. The government’s quarantine plans have done their job in Arrowe Park and Milton Keynes.

Highly contagious, contagious without symptoms, one in five critical or dead. Doesn’t sound so good that way does it.

Jesus.

The concern is because phe think the best we can hope for is a delay in the outbreak in this country. But, you know this right?

Assuming you actually read some of the posts and you dont just periodically waltz onto the thread to play PollyAnna?

And this is why we prep. This Translated Weibo post that was shared on Reddit, absolutely broke my heart this morning. www.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/comments/f535md/a_family_of_four_in_wuhan_all_passed_away_due_to/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

I read the WHO reports and am married to a doctor. When the government and NHS update with changes to the current position, I’ll keep updated.

www.kaltura.com/index.php/extwidget/preview/partner_id/2012451/uiconf_id/32750761/entry_id/1_6qg432gr/embed/iframe?

The last 35 minutes of this (Chief medical officer and panel taking questions) is well worth the watch if you want a rational, balanced view on COVID 19 in the UK.