Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

That’s me fucked then

I’m overweight, so I’m doomed.

I’ll self medicate 🥃

Best order a few more bottles!

Well that’s grim. Still, I suppose it makes sense. I suspect they will prioritise working doctors/nurses first, as they can recover and keep helping others. God, I hope it doesn’t come to letting the elderly/sick die because of resource preservation

Did anyone catch Loose women today? I know it's not the most intelligent program sometimes but I do get 🤔 when China is in lockdown, cruise lines are on lockdown but uk TV media is very scoffing at what a non issue it is. After watching the yearly Hospital documentary about our strained NHS, even if it just a doubling in numbers of normal flu, that would cause alarm.

Conspiracy but I do wonder if it being dumbed down.

AmelieTaylor yes he’s a lovely one really! And yes, although he’s usually more up for a Brexit rant than a CV one, we generally can discuss current events and risks sensibly.

BrightonBB amazing! Can’t make it tonight but will have to find an excuse this week to “test out the recipe”

Emmabryant123 as PP have said, the 30-50% cancer risk is over a lifetime; estimates for 60% CV spread is much sooner. 1% deaths of 60% of 70M people is over 400,000 deaths potentially within the next year; not to mention we don’t know enough about long term affects of people recovering from the severe cases. I’m not panicking, and I hope it doesn’t get that bad; but equally I am perfectly capable of worrying about my cancer risk alongside prepping for the immediate CV risk.

for those worried about being prioritised (or not!) for treatment. That should be an absolute worst case scenario, fingers crossed the clever clogs at all the pharmaceutical companies are working on a vaccine as we speak.

I’ve just been to the dentist and for the first time in my memory the dentist wasn’t wearing a mask. I have a too big a phobia of dentists/ was in too much pain at the time to question it but I’m really worried now.

@Legoandloldolls I said something similar before. China are literally sealing people inside their buildings and we are being told not to panic. Our NHS won’t cope. Our hospitals are already full. And there are 5 ECMO units in the country so it’s going to be a postcode lottery as to whether you live near one, and a health lottery as to whether you get on one as yes they will prioritise those most likely to survive. If it takes hold here and people have it as severely as they have in China, it’s not going to be good.

@TeaBoots
Was the dentist wearing a visor instead?
www.dentalsky.com/disposables/face-visors.html
A lot of people wear them instead, they are actually supposed to be more effective.

AnnaMariaDreams no. Tbh I only noticed because (TMI sorry) the suction thing kept splashing in her face. Or my saliva which is even grosser. I don’t know what to do now. I just feel sure that I’m now going to catch something awful. I know I’m anxious but still she was essentially breathing in my mouth for an hour.

There is a shortage of masks - dentists are considering cancelling appointments.

fingers crossed the clever clogs at all the pharmaceutical companies are working on a vaccine as we speak

There's a vaccine already. It's at the animal testing stage atm. Amazingly fast but a long way to go yet.

Parker231 I would rather my appointment had been cancelled. Weirdly she was wearing google things but nothing covering her nose/ mouth.

I had a horrible dental abscess and it hurt like hell which must have distorted my thinking because normally I would have said something. My DH and my DS both have conditions which means they are more likely to be affected by any virus. So I feel doubly bad.

The World Health Organisation said this week it may be 18 months before a vaccine against the coronavirus is publicly available.

I’m hoping for good results from some of the many clinical trials they’re running at the moment.

TeaBoots without wishing to offend, the dentist masks are more to protect the Dentist from patients rather than the other way around - the dentist was more at risk than you were.

Parker231 ah I interpreted the vaccine estimates as estimates for complete coverage. I was hoping there would be enough available sooner to try and contain outbreak by tactically aiming at HCP and then other key high cluster areas to try and create a buffer. Maybe I’m being too optimistic, most unlike me!!

Dh has just come home from work saying they’ve marched a fellow employee off the premises 5 minutes after he arrived, because he’d been on holiday and refused to say where to. They’ve got strict work from home requirements as they have an office in China and when this all started up the company told all employees who have been traveling that way or just have any flu like symptoms they must work from home. Glad the company taking it seriously, maybe word from China has spooked the management. Can’t believe the bloke for turning up to work though!

Is it me or has the news gone a bit quieter on coronavirus updates?

Everyone knows about the cancer stats. I heard a advert today that made me morbidly chuckle that if you dont look after your heart, it might stop one day ( might = 1000% guaranteed for everyone)

It's the everyone being ill at the same time that worries me. Me and dh ill with four young kids who could also be ill all the same time. Even with a few days of noro virus it took a month to get back to normal life.

I had a eye test today and I'm sure I have never seen them disinfect every piece of equipment before.

It's the mixed messages I dont get. If it's no big deal they would be bringing back the cruise passengers. Maybe it would make them look like they taking it seriously. However doing that, contact tracing and saying it just flu is weird.

If someone said normal flu cases was going to double in the UK this winter then it would be a massive strain on the NHS. But this has fizzled to a non event.

I'm stocking up on wine either way

@Dennisreynoldsduster

Think you are right - Saturday Times headline during the day was 50% population to be infected; relegated much lower down the website by evening & since.

Most focus on cruise ship & Japan.

I don’t get the mixed messages either. On the one hand it’s not a big deal and we aren’t at risk and shouldn’t panic. On the other hand China is sealing people in buildings, disinfecting money and there are plans over here for people
To self quarantine if they show symptoms plus the government can forcibly quarantine people.
Which is it?! Serious or nothing to worry about?

With all rumours and rumblings in social media it’s hard to read between the lines and work out what’s actually going on.

I heard a government information advert today. To help stop the spread of Corona virus. It advised people to cough and sneeze into a tissue then put in a bin, and wash hands regularly then use hand sanitizing Gel afterwards. It was on the Radio and I only heard it once even though I had the Radio on quite a bit.

I'm in the public sector. We have that advice pinned up in "social spaces" and toilets in our office every year for the last three or four years.

Do we actually have a free press in this country? Could background threats have been made or even just appeals to press behind close doors not to spread panic? I really don't know. Unprecedented times probably mean unprecedented measures.

In a prep front = has anyone started negative prepping? In that I mean, not buying stuff, not booking holidays, not spending money where they normally would?

From me:

DD needs new school shoes as hers have been glued 3 times now and DS needs a PE jumper as he lost his. Neither item is available second hand despite a month of looking for both. I'm sorely tempted not to bother with either - after all school might be closed in a couple of weeks, they might get ill, I might die and so they'd be off for a while. OK so that's doom and gloom but there are any range of genuinely plausible reasons not to waste the £70 I would normally have spent to acquire these items by now.
I'd rather the money was spent on prepping, which could keep us alive or on some things to remember me by. (I remain convinced this virus will kill me.)

Holidays - absolute waste of time to book one - even if we are all still present and correct by summer time, god know what state the country will be in , or the world. If 60-80% of the world's population is to get this, then I can't see we can decide to travel now. May be if we've had it and survived I'd consider it - but then I've heard that you can be re-infected... so who knows?
However, some might say they'd travel anyway - if they felt the virus and it's consequences were inevitable - then they'd want to enjoy themselves as much as possible.

bellinisurge I realise its common advice.

But this is first time I've heard a public information advert specifically for the Corona virus on commercial Radio.

TBH I expected them to start a few weeks ago.

Has anybody got any relatives/friends/links to St Peters hospital in Surrey?

There's a rumour that the whole hospital has been shut down to visitors due to coronavirus, but I can't find any sources.

Would be concerning if it had. I've known the odd ward closure due to norovirus or other infectious disease but I can't think of any time I've seen an entire hospital close

Radio adverts have been on for a week or so now