Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

No objections from my oh but, again, they don't really like talking about it. One adult leaving the burden of 'horizon scanning' (good term) and planning entirely on the other creates quite a weight of responsibility for the one doing all the work, and doesn't feel quite fair. I suppose different people have different triggers for feeling they need to take action though, and if, by the time you have passed yours, your partner has already done lots of planning, then it's easy to go on avoiding thinking about it.

My DP thinks I’m silly for prepping, but he also thinks I’m silly for being more in charge of my finances than him. He hasn’t been out to the shed for a while though, so hasn’t seen the extent of it

MY DH has daily meetings about this ( I think I have mentioned before - NHS) and he says it is all fiiiiiine. Therefore he knows nothing of our preps!

@Dennisreynoldsduster no, it's very much unofficial.

DP knows that I prep, but probably not quite the scale! I don’t really Talk about Coronavirus except in a ‘jokey’ way, I leave the speculation and discussion to on here. I think I said on Thread 1 or 2 he did buy me a proper mask and spare filters without telling me until I mentioned it; so who knows - maybe he’s been squirrelling away more preps without my knowledge and we’ll be doubly prepared if SHTF!

On a food stock note - I found some garlic & rosemary focaccia bread mix in Aldi for 87p. Which is great because I bloody love focaccia um, I mean, because it only needs water and olive oil to make rather than worrying about having milk/yeast/butter etc. Ciabatta’s probably a good one to learn to make as well, given that olive oil stores much better.

I don't find these figures gigantically reassuring. It's great that there are relatively few cases amongst children. What that does mean though, that the 60% infected cases that experts are often quoted as saying, if this is true, mean that among adults, the overall eventual expected percentage infected could be higher.

Also they are still sticking at the c. 20% of cases being severe or critical.

Not reassuring at all

I'm holding on to the possibility that there are lots of very mild or asymptomatic cases which aren't counted in the figures.

@Dyrne. I still think your DP is a star for buying you a mask like his - it’s such a sweet thing to do & then not tell you as he knew it would worry you.

I think he’d be good to talk to. Practical but not panicked!

Plus you need to make sure at least one of you has bought the alcohol!

I'm sort of swaying towards the no news is good news philosophy.

Those figures are really worrying OYBBK No movement basically from the 20% we've been told about all along...

Those figures are scary. If they reckon that at least 60% of the population will catch it, then that is an awful deaths .

(I do wonder if the government are taking such limited measures as they are quite happy for some 'incidental' social cleansing to go on among those of us who can't afford private healthcare. It'll also mean they have something to blame the collapse of the NHS on).

Yes those figures are worrying. 1 in 20 people who catch it will require heavy duty medical care in order to survive

I find those figures quite reasurring .
2 per cent of cases potentially fatal.

Did you know 1 in 3 people get cancer . And only 1 out of 2 don't die from it .
Do you worry about that ? I would worry about that more

Of those eligible for extra help in hospital with covid19 ones of working age will be prioritised. My father ( retired doc in 80s) and sister ( current doc.) have already had that discussion. Essentially they have agreed that the elderly will not be supported and as my dad puts it sacrificed.

Dyrne - I saw that bread too and we made some this afternoon. It is delicious.

Not reassuring.

Was you supposed to put a link blackeyed? Its just blank

They're not reassuring statistics at all, especially given the 2 to 3 week disease trajectory, which means someone can go from being fine to being in ICU (or worse) with no opportunity to think about or discuss the diagnosis or treatment - which is completely unlike almost all other serious diseases.

But as a pp said, there must be a huge number of cases excluded from these statistics because of the mildness of the symptoms, which presumably are included in the statistical modelling of how many of us are likely to contract it sooner or later.

^ Did you know 1 in 3 people get cancer . And only 1 out of 2 don't die from it .
Do you worry about that ? I would worry about that more^

People don't all tend to get cancer at the same time though.
The death count will be probably be a lot higher when the hospitals are overwhelmed and unable to cope and other services are stretched because everyone is poorly due to the fact that there is no immunity to it in the population.

1 in 3 for cancer but that's during their entire lifespan.

Annual cancer deaths in the UK are around 165,000 per year. Scientists at Imperial College London's School of Public Health are saying that 60% of the population could contract covid which would represent 400,000 deaths based on a 1% death rate.

That's more than double the annual cancer deaths, so I'm not sure what your point is?

If you are not at all worried about the virus I don't know why you even bother reading these threads. You seem to pop up sporadically with dismissive comments.

God knows what meant. I think I was planning to put something in the middle. Been to the shop and got food now so maybe my brain will function. Put it down to a senior moment.

I’ve prepped as much as I can now, need to top up a few things but I think I’ll need to stay away from the threads for a bit now as my anxiety is sky rocketing :-/
It was making
Me feel a bit in control but I think now I’m nearly done I’m just seeing all these statistics and inwardly freaking out
The thread has been so useful though!

Did you know 1 in 3 people get cancer

OFGS. Not in the next year they won't.

Of those eligible for extra help in hospital with covid19 ones of working age will be prioritised. My father ( retired doc in 80s) and sister ( current doc.) have already had that discussion. Essentially they have agreed that the elderly will not be supported and as my dad puts it sacrificed.

I've heard this too from consultant relative half way across the world. I also heard anyone with underlying health issues will not be prioritised - whether child or adult. They will only help those with the best chance of survival. Also and obviously non emergency surgery will be cancelled along with all outpatients appointments. This won't just apply to virus patients - even patients being treated for other conditions would stop being supported if old or have a long and uncertain treatment plan.

That's me out and DS with asthma, DH won't be supported - he smokes. DF is over 70 - no help.

Ultimately imagine you have one ECMO machine and 30 people that need it urgently. You want to give it to the person who is likely to benefit the most from it - young and healthy and will likely need it for shortest period so the next person can benefit from the machine.

If it gets that bad, I know what I want them to do with me.