Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

If you guys had to travel to London via a main rail link then underground for about 3 hours- would you consider wearing a mask? I need to go at the end of next week- no way I can't go- I want to wear a mask but I don't want to look crazy!

Now I'm going to start sounding like an irrational conspiracy theorist. Given internet shutdown in China and now 'news' of gagging orders in the US, is it possible we're not being told what's going on? I can't help thinking that I don't trust govt aides to act altruistically.

Those poor people on the cruise ship. I would be going completely doolally by now. Very claustrophobic at the best of times, particularly in the inner cabins without natural light, but now that so many people have been taken ill they must feel like they're in some kind of death ship nightmare movie. No one seems to know why so many of them are going down with it. Some of them have been evacuated to the US now and apparently the UK government is 'gauging interest' in a UK evacuation - as if anyone's going to say no?!

I made the mistake of having a quick peep at the reddit preppers. They are a lot less calm than this thread. Some great ideas I hadn't considered like reusable cloth nappy kits and suture kits. But they are really planning for the apocalypse. They don't believe the government in the slightest. There are now several corona sub reddits with some accusing others of being run by the ccp. I'm trying to follow the mantra of 'prepped not panicked' so will avoid them now.

I’m sure it’s very stressful but they only have a couple of days to go now, by the time the government gets around to organising something, the quarantine will finished. If they were going to evacuate them they should have done it sooner.

One of the Americans said he’d rather wait out the remaining time in his cabin because the US was going to quarantine them for another 14 days when they got back.

Apparently the Americans were pretty much forced to leave, they were told if they didn’t they couldn’t say when they’d let them back in to the USA and they were put on the plane together with no testing. They were only going to test them when they got back to America.

Gorky, I think that too. I was very struck in the C4 documentary on Friday by how dire-sounding all the virologists and epidemiologists sounded, when you would expect that the research scientists would be the ones keeping a clear head and an open mind. It made me wonder why we aren't all under martial law tbh.

I think the bland reassurance tactic is being applied very widely too. For example, I have a family member who works very closely with PHE in an NHS role (not just for this, but anyway). They are being blase to a quite extraordinary degree about this - and this is a person who is normally quite dramatic imo about all sorts of other health matters. I know they would be honest with me even if it was confidential, so I assume they're being briefed that this is nothing to worry about, just like flu etc. Worrying.

Well, my sister's very worried as a senior consultant dealing with lots of really unwell patients with pneumonia. Particularly as many of the Chinese doctors became so ill with covid19 due to a high viral load. Those are the types of patients she sees.

@TipseyTorvey

Reddit definitely has a lot of what they call 'doomers' on there.

I try to filter anything I post on here from Reddit through whether it is evidence based, whether it's in line at least roughly with independent expert assessments, etc.

The only exception being I do post links to first hand accounts of things that seem reasonably legitimate from the details provided.

Russian woman who had been onboard the Diamond princess has now tested positive (after leaving the ship)

This is one of my main concerns - yes, people are being tested when they get back from China but so many people now have shown that you can have two or three negative tests and still develop CV.

Sorry for those working on the frontline, with family on the frontline and with underlying health issues yourselves or in the family.

I can only imagine how even the smallest risk of a pandemic must be understandably anxiety provoking

Interesting first hand account of being in one of the regions in China that only has a small number of cases (33, 20 recovered)

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/f56r59/personallexperiencefrommabritishhchinesein/

Re prepping and relationships, DH has always talked about prepping in a proper "hide in the bunker in the woods" way as he believes there will be a Zombie Apocalypse at some point . We have always had full cupboards and freezers (extra chest freezer) as he grew up without much food in the house so wants to feel secure - we are a big family too. Also I am prone to unplanned hospital stays/injuries (uncontrolled epilepsy) so like to be prepared for them so DH and DC have as little stress as possible. So to a certain extent we have always done it.

When I started my separate Proper Prepping Cupboards for this particular crisis (so medical supplies and enough food/drinks for two weeks) DH did scoff and also seemed to be annoyed that I was, in his words "stressing" and in my words "being realistic" We also had the "stop looking online, you're just going to worry yourself" conversations.

However. As the news has developed he has come round to my way of thinking. Plus I have discussed it more in terms of the backup cupboard so we never run out of anything. When he went to make Spag bol at the weekend and there were no tinned tomatoes, there were some in the Prepping Cupboards and he reluctantly admitted I WAS RIGHT it was a good idea.

I have also pointed out it's a good idea to stock up before the Brexit price rises and he is totally on board with that. So I recommend approaching it in that way.

Also, for scoffing eye rolling partners, perhaps you could hide something essential from normal cupboards and then produce one from the Prep Stash and save the day and make your point, hopefully without showing smugness

That sounds so manipulative

I've been reading about a newly married couple that has been on the princess diamond.
There just been flown back to the USA, sound like the cruise line has done everything in there power to make it comfortable for all the passengers.
I know they had a lot of issues with medication at the beginning.
They were letting people out deck by deck (with masks on and had to stand 2 metres from others that wasnt in there cabin) letting the people without no natural light have more time out, was also handing out vitamins to them.

Wondered who you were calling manipulative. .

Doh!

Also, for scoffing eye rolling partners, perhaps you could hide something essential from normal cupboards and then produce one from the Prep Stash and save the day

Evil genius!

My problem is that he's not scoffing - he's on board with the prepping - he just mentally can't cope with the thought of bad stuff happening.

I'm not a big prepper - I assume most of us will catch it at some point, and we should try and plan for that. DH thinks even buying a few extra tins of tomatoes is overreacting, and unfortunately I've had to ask him for more money (although everything I've bought is long-life and we will use up eventually!)

He doesn't know that I've hidden in my car a 12-pack of toilet rolls, 6 bottles of lucozade, 2 tins of salmon and a pack of antibacterial wipes. And some lindor eggs.

And that autocorrected to "2 TONS of salmon" which would have seen us through any kind of apocalypse 😃

My dh keeps seeking out all the good news stories - "oh look, the numbers are down", "oh look, it's fine, they say he phoned 111 as soon as he got off the plane and went straight to isolation", "oh look, they say everyone disembarking in Cambodia is fiiine".

I think there are going to be two cynics in this house before long.

It's a bit depressing that so many people's husbands are scoffing, arguing and having to be protected from thinking about worrying things. Not to mention having to be asked for money to buy extra shopping. Sorry to anyone who's having to cope with this nonsense as well as doing all the prepping for a family.

DH and kids think I’m a bit mad, but they let me get on with my quiet prepping. The worst prepped of my friends is the ones with the largest number of children, which I find rather worrying! I suppose it’s hard to prep if you’ve got 6+ mouths to feed, both money and space wise. I am prepared to mercy-run food to their doorstep if they get isolated.

The Sussex Uni student is negative. That would have been very good news last week, but as mojo says, it's starting to seem as though there may be an issue with false negatives, so perhaps just cautiously good news for now.

@GorkyMcPorky is that tweet a reliable source? If so that’s very worrying

454 cases on the cruise ship now, following the testing of over 1700 passengers. 70% are asymptomatic according to the japanese.
www.theguardian.com/world/japan