Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Do you find the big Berkey good? I've been put off because they don't get rid of micro plastics and the additional cost of fluoride filters, but do like the fact they are stand alone rather than built in.

I have topped up my Brexit stash and am feeling a lot better for it, not just because of coronavirus but because it makes me feel more organised.
It’s already paid off as we both came down with colds this weekend and although we aren’t bad, with two month old DS it’s been handy not to have to go out for anything.

I’ve got plenty of Milton wipes and disinfectant, antibacterial hand wash and sanitiser gel, dettol wipes and dettol laundry cleanser.
Both my freezers are full and I have a good selection of tins, herbs, pulses both in the cupboards and in my stash. Ditto toothpaste, soap.
Also got plenty of cold and flu meds, TCP, tyrozets, nasal sprays, paracetamol and ibuprofen and have a new first aid kit coming as ours is in a bit of a state.
Always have loads of nappies in for DS, same with wipes and cotton pads and back up nappy cream, and picked up a load more at the weekend in different sizes as I’m always paranoid about running out anyway.
I’m going to pick up some shampoo/conditioner/shower gel and deodorants from Lidl when I’m feeling better.

Going to get some candles and batteries when I go back out but feel like there are more things I’m missing!

Could potentially do with more tinned fruit and veg and meat for real emergencies as most of my
Tins are beans and soups with some veg...

Anyone got any suggestions of what else I should get?

As a long time lurker ((waves)), I have found this thread both informative and reassuring, so thank you.

I have been a prepper for 20+ years and lived self-sufficiently on a small-holding for 10+ years. If it helps, I can share with you my prepping. As with everything, there is a cost element to this and being financially prepared is an important part of prepping so I offer you options. The options are also there in case the SHTF as Preppers say! In a long-term scenario, if this did become a pandemic, it could possibly have a knock on effect on supplies such as water and electricity) if people are ill and not able to work.)

Being prepped is about being prepared, not panicking. In the population right now, around 10% of us will be quietly preparing (which is why we can feel so isolated in this), 80% will be looking around at the news, social media and each other, to see what everyone else is doing and then follow their lead. The final 10% will be panicking but not prepping.

So I will divide my suggestions up as follows:
• Important - buy now if you can, whilst others are still observing and supplies are still left.
• Options - meaning other suggestions if you have the money, storage room and inclination.
• SHTF - Options for if the Shit Hit The Fan, and there is a full blown pandemic and life as we know it changes.
Remember, if you prep as much as possible from the Important category, and cannot prep anymore due to space or finances, you will have still done more than 90% of the population.

WATER
• Important:

• Bottled water, 2 litres per person per day.

• Options:

• Water purification tablets. These are cheap & available at Amazon.
• Bleach (unperfumed) can be used to purify water.

• SHTF:

• WaterBOB. This sits inside your bath and you fill it up, giving you lots of extra water for washing and cleaning.
• Water carrier (foldable) in case you need to transport water from somewhere else.
• Water filtration system like Life Straws.

FOOD:
There are online prepping calculators that can help you decide what is “enough” to feed your family for a certain time. There have been many suggestions on here already, so these are additional options.
• Important:

• Manual can opener.
• Salt, sugar.
• Milk. Powdered and long life.
• Tins of fruit and vegetables your family likes to eat.
• Dried fruit (Yo-yo bears.)
• Wholewheat crackers/ tortillas (you can freeze them).
• Cooking essentials. Cooking oil, foil, clingfilm/ beeswax cover, bicarbonate of soda (can be used for heartburn, antibacterial mouthwash, deodorant and as a kitchen cleaner as well as for baking.)
• Fish. Tins of tuna, salmon and mackerel.

• Options:

• Cous cous.
• Porridge Oats.
• Pasta and pasta sauces.
• Tinned new potatoes.
• Rice. White rice keeps longer than brown.
• Stock cubes and gravy.
• Tinned tomatoes.
• Pudding. Rice pudding, custard.
• Peanut butter (if you don’t have an allergy.) Packed full of nutrients, energy boost and lasts for ages.
• Honey. Can be used as sweetener and for antibacterial and medicinal purposes.

• SHTF:

• Bread mixes, 2lb loaf tin or flour, yeast.
• Sprouter and seeds to sprout.
• Easy growing salad seeds e.g. lettuce, tomatoes.
• Vacuum packed food.
• Knife sharpener.
• BioLite Wood-burning camp kitchen.

PANDEMIC SUPPLIES:
• Important:

• Masks.
• Goggles.
• Disposable gloves.
• Strong black bin bags for waste disposal.
• Antibacterial wipes and hand gel.
• Disinfectant and bleach.
• Antibacterial laundry detergent.
• Tissues.
• Toilet paper.

• Options:

• Sponge scouters, kitchen cloths, washing up liquid, kitchen roll.
• Toiletries. Body wash, shampoo. Extra toothpaste and toothbrushes.
• Sanitary products. Moon Cup and reusable panty liners.
• Contact lens solution.
• Plastic dust sheets to create isolation room/ space.
• 3M protective coverall.
• Shoe covers.
• Ear plugs.

• SHTF:

• Paper napkins.
• Plastic cutlery to save water.
• Paper plates to save water.

MEDICINE:
• Important:

• Pain killers.
• Vitamins.
• Perscription medicine.
• Cold and flu remedies.
• Cough medicine.
• Diarrhoea medicine. Rehydration salts.
• First Aid Kit.
• Pocket sized book on family first aid.

• SHTF:

• Hayfever and allergy relief.
• Dental supplies. Antibacterial mouthwash, temporary tooth filling kit, clove oil for toothache.

OTHER:
• Important:

• Baby supplies.
• Cash. Combination of banknotes and change.
• Information. Photo of your children, emergency contact information (written down), paper and pens.
• Duct tape. Useful for so many things, including creating an isolation room if someone is ill.
• Pet supplies. Think about creating an emergency pet kit with pet food, water, pet first aid/ medicine, water bowl, blanket, toys. Keep inside it a copy of your vets contact details and any information about up to date vaccines. Maybe also keep a photo of you and your pet.
• Fire. Matches & lighters. Firelighters.
• Spare batteries.
• Torch.

• Options:

• Solar panel charger.
• Rechargeable batteries.
• Power Bank. Portable power charger.
• Candles.
• Hot water bottle.

• SHTF:

• Map of local area in case you need to find rivers, streams, ponds, lakes for water supplies.
• Blankets in case no heating. You can also buy emergency survival blankets cheaply.
• Fire striker to make fire.
• Fastenings like cable ties, parachute cord, string.
• Sewing kit. To repair clothing.
• Tool kit. Hammer, nails. Screwdriver, screws. Wrench. Pliers.
• Gardening. Spade, hoe, heirloom seeds.
• Books: SAS survival guide, wild food, herbal medicine.
• Full tank of petrol.

I have found the Nest Egg app a great way to keep tabs on my prepping supplies; you can list items in categories like the ones suggested and locations so you know where to find them. You can also add notes and expiry dates.

Also think about;
• Emergency Plan.
So everyone in your family knows what to do in case of emergency. Think about having a plan for work and home.
• Emergency Binder.
Folder containing copies of important personal information you can grab in case of emergency. Paperwork like insurance documents, marriage and birth certificates, NHS number, NI number, passport, bank account information etc. You can also add a copy of your Emergency Plan and checklists.

This is not a definitive list but I hope it is useful.

Thank you very much for this. For those who have never given this a thought, please note this is an excellent general prepper list. NOT a you-must-buy-all-this-or-won't-be-ready list. That comment was for the occasional flybys we get on here.

Bloodylove, well the reason it's my out there prep is because we don't use it It just takes up space in the kitchen but makes me feel more prepared - I lived in Africa for a while and we used one just like it (and the one time we didn't, came down with a nasty tummy bug). I didn't know it didn't take out microplastics, but if we were using it in a real SHTF scenario it would be with water from rain barrels, so presumably that wouldn't be an issue? In pandemic territory I would run tap water through it for our drinking water just to be on the safe side.

Thanks. Just what I needed. Good for gap filling.

Sorry just marking my place on the new thread!

Had an email overnight telling me that the N95 masks that I ordered via Amazon on the 28th of January have been dispatched. I ordered them on the basis that I'd be unlikely to ever actually receive them, and the expected delivery date was moved back a few times, so it was a pleasant surprise.

Does anyone who remembers the swine flu epidemic remember how long it took for it to become a big outbreak in this country? I know it's not the same virus but I'm just wondering how long it took to spread. What was the timeline like?

I was wondering that too ofwarren. I did have a google but struggled to find historical news articles.

If you do an advanced search on here you’ll find quite a few threads that make interesting reading.

@AvocadoOwl are they coming from China?

Haven't caught up from last night yet so apologies if already posted.

Cruise ship is now on 454 cases with 19 in a serious condition.

The diamond princess has its own line on the countries chart now. Spreading so rapidly.

@Effieray
Thank you so much for this.
I'm also a keen preppier but it had not occurred to me about the dental side of prepping or the bigger water storage.

I've amended my list and off shopping in a bit.

That's quite a substantial number in a serious condition. Wonder how serious is defined.

@wellididntseethatcoming I just checked and yes, from China.

I feel guilty that they've been sent out of China where they are needed most to be honest. Looking at the seller feedback a lot of orders were cancelled because their stock was donated to Chinese hospitals. Not sure why mine was shipped, hopefully mask supply issues there are improving or perhaps they need to keep some business going to survive. Too late to cancel it now either way. It's only a box of 10.

Can I ask how people find this is affecting your relationships? I have a DH who doesn't like thinking about bad stuff happening, whereas my response is to horizon scan and want to talk about it & how we should be responding. I don't think I'm catastrophising - it's more updates on things that are being reported, although I will admit to having gone down twitter rabbit holes with some of the videos coming out of China, but me doing any of that isn't welcome from his point of view. The combination doesn't work very well, so I end up feeling like I can't talk about things I want to talk about, and he feels like I'm constantly wanting to talk about depressing things. If I stop talking to him about it, which I could do, it will I think lead to me resenting the fact I can't have adult conversations with him about it and basically need to treat him like one of my children - he might be happier but I will have lost respect. On the other hand, if I'm depressing him just by being me and paying attention to this stuff, he's unhappy and that's not great either. I don't think it helps that this has come on top of three years of depressing Brexit news - politically we are on the same page there, but again, his approach is to ignore it as much as possible. Sorry, this isn't really prepping per se, but I don't know where else I could raise it. Not happy this morning...

You might find they don't arrive. I ordered mine from China (via Amazon) weeks ago and they still haven't arrived.

I've now got the reusable ones from wickes plus a spare set of filters each. They're also made in the UK and so supply might be easier.

14 of US citizens were found to have had it while they were being moved from the ship to the flight back to the USA.
They still let them on the flight as they were told they were positive for the coronavirus while been transferred.

My husband is quite similar wherearemychickens and I try not to really talk about it with him. He's happy with me prepping but doesn't want to talk about the virus at all. He gets visibly uptight if I mention it. He's a head in the sand type. I've no advice though, sorry.

Russian woman who had been onboard the Diamond princess has now tested positive (after leaving the ship).

Plus a Heathrow airport hotel has apparently been requisitioned to turn into a quarantine centre!

I'm fortunate with my dh. I can't quite work out whether he is incredibly tolerant or on the same page as me. While he won't proactively prep, he's very happy to help out and agrees with my assessments. I think sometimes I rabbit on too much, not in an over worrying way, but because I like to hyper analyse stuff once I get interested in something. Data makes my head feel happy.

DH is happy enough with my preps and has in fact added a couple of items himself but like a PP, I too can disappear into a Twitter rabbit hole and I haven't told him about what I've seen in there. I try to judge reliable sources.

Actually DH is less keen to go to London next weekend that me. I feel a bit reassured that things are developing very slowly and am now more inclined to just wait and see.