Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

KundaliniRising Thank you for the brilliant tips. I already use a lot of those herbs and foods, just as general healthy eating, but you've included some extra ideas for me to try. A lot of it tastes lovely too.

Like you, I have an underlying health condition. As you are, I'm trying to prepare for the possiblity of overwhelmed hospitals and limited access to treatment. Hopefully this won't happen but prepping is about hoping for the best whilst preparing for the worst.

I used to know a (medical) doctor who used natural remedies to complement modern medicine. He always emphasised it was complementary as opposed to alternative medicine. Many modern drugs are derived from nature.

Not so much on this thread but elsewhere. The dismissive attitudes towards older people and those who are immunocompromised is quite upsetting. Surely most people have at least one friend or family member in a more vulnerable group?

Givemeallthegin8- I have retrained myself to use the English term for press, but occasionally forget, much to the confusion of my English children! Likewise..scallions, yo-gurt and shamrock!

You are all so kind.
He’s vulnerable yes but has never agreed with the concept of prepping. As we live fairly remotely I keep a ‘snow box’ each year with enough basics for a week or so. So-before he was even ill this would get scoffed at.
Anyhow. We all have our own struggles don’t we.
Amazing tips for herbs, roots etc. 💚

WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles i love your hospital prep and grab bag essentials. I think i may have to pinch your list

This thread is so interesting, thank you. We were talking at work about the situation and a member of the team said that there is a very high death rate among elderly people who catch the new coronavirus. I asked him (22 years old) to define elderly. He said the over 50s

Anyway, luckily I don't have much prepping to do as I stockpiled ahead of Brexit but I have bought some long life oat milk, extra muesli, dried and tinned fruit.

@OhYouBadBadKitten agree with the denial, my otherwise very healthy husband caught swine flu likely from a flight from NY. When he went to our local health center (through back door, all doctor’s in protective clothing, like out of a film, and he was extremely sick for 2 months...out of curiosity several of our family members asked staff (doctors and nurses that were there) if they knew if anyone local had been infected they all denied it. Every time. Still don’t know why.

I have been talking to someone I know who is fairly high up in NHS management in a particular area. I feel more reassured that Covid19 is not out in our general population right now.

When did Brighton Steve have it?
When did his contacts have it?
When would their contacts be likely to get it?

If it had got out, ( mild case?) when would one see
a spike in pneumonia from others getting it?

( Waiting to breathe a sigh of relief)

@EducatingArti

Interesting. Can you please elaborate on that a little more?

Not really as I don't want to out my friend but they still think it is being contained in the UK ( for now)

My older dc's aunt is due to fly back from America next week and their grandma is wanting my dc to go mingle with them all for lunch, including their uncle who has a dc in a school in Bristol.

I know I'm probably being paranoid but my instinct is to say a definite no. Just not comfortable with all this unnecessary intermingling.

Someone mentioned using 70% alcohol hand gel. I tried to buy some today but 4 chemists and supermarkets were out of hand gel entirely.

I do have some old hand gel at home but one is 67.5% and the other doesn't give a percentage. Does anyone know what brands are 70% plus? And available?

I also did a bit of research and per this wiki page maybe 90% alcohol rubs are more effective against viruses'Hand sanitizer that contains at least 60 % alcohol or contains a "persistent antiseptic" should be used.

For health care settings like hospitals and clinics, optimum alcohol concentration to kill bacteria is 70% to 95%.

Alcohol rubs kill many different kinds of bacteria, including antibiotic resistant bacteria and TB bacteria. 90% alcohol rubs are highly flammable, but kill many kinds of viruses, including enveloped viruses such as the flu virus, the common cold virus, and HIV, though is notably ineffective against the rabies virus

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hand_sanitizer

I assume no hand gels are 90% alcohol so am now unsure if they are effective anyway?

@Choux try Lidl as the Cien one has 70% of alcohol ( as far as I was told). They had quite a few yesterday.

@Choux

I read the other day that 70% is enough and more isn’t necessarily better. That’s what I’ve bought.

You could get the sprays, but they can be very harsh on your hands

I’m balancing the fact that 70% should be plenty & I'm less likely to end up with my hands in shreds which would mean I was more likely to pick up bugs etc 🤷🏻‍♀️

I have the Clinell one which is 70%, nice to use, a mild smell and doesn’t feel too drying but I couldn’t get big containers if it, so I’ve ordered something else (can’t remember what at the minute!) I’ll report back when it arrives.

Ingot miniatures of Lacura hand gel from by the till. The opaque one is just over 70% and the transparent one is 60-something. Couldn't find standard sizes though.

I got

I was curious about a gold edition

So the Chinese are now taking bank notes out of circulation to disinfect them.

They must have spent millions trying to contain this.

Big 500ml in home bargains today for 99p. No alcohol percentage specified so I’m going to add surgical spirit.

I bought some big 500ml pump dispenser E45 lotion from Home Bargains for £4.49. They are on the worktop next to the sanitizer.

I have found topping up the hand sanitizer with surgical spirit made it quite drying as it's stripping the moisture out of my hands.

Hands are now ok. But it's taking 3-4 applications a day to maintain good skin.

I'm sanitising probably 10-15 times a day when out and about.
It's every time I touch a door handle, keypad, menu or shopping basket or anything that others are touching constantly.

Maintaining intact skin is important.

Handy thread, thank you.

Caught up on this thread having fallen down a rabbit hole on reddit prepping threads. Everyone far too quick to insist guns are absolutely vital so glad to come back here to a more UK centric discussion!

WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles morale is so important in shit situations and little touches can make all the difference.

OneOfTheGrundys I’m sorry your DH is being so resistant to you prepping. DP wavers between being grateful we have things stocked and gently making fun of me for “Doomsday Prepping”. I’ve kind of got him seeing it as basically my hobby - I am gracious enough to let him take up space with his bloody craft beer brewing kit; so the least he can do is tolerate my preps! ( that and I usually smuggle some of the more “out there” preps out of sight quickly!)

Just out of interest, what do you class as more out there prep items?

I confess I was swayed by Pinterest into making myself a couple of “survival boxes” complete with fishing line, flint strikers, button compasses etc. I then realised I’d get far more use and reliability out of just buying some cheap bic lighters. And I don’t even like fish

I had fun making the kits, though, and do like that I have them available.

Ah, okay, I will give you that one I think mine is probably a Big Berkey gravity ceramic water purifier thingy