Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Gothmummy, that’s why I have been so glad in the past that I have read these threads.

There’s a view that Preppers are some sort of tin hat conspiracy theory weirdos like you see on TV but it is just not true. The vast majority of us just want to make sure our families are ok in difficult times. This also takes the pressure off the community in the event of a problem, as we are not joining the panickers trying to stick up on bread when the supply chain is disrupted.

Glad you’re set up to cope with the flooding

I don't know if it'll help anyone but Superdrug have the large bottles of Defendol hand sanitizer (hosp grade) for £3.49. I bought a few earlier, as nowhere else seemed to have the large size of gel in stock.

My point was simply that none of your herby concoctions are going to cure you of the novel coronavirus or prevent you getting novel coronavirus. If anything you sound ignorant.

Herbal preparations have a big part in keeping healthy or in recovering from an illness.

Ginger, thyme, mallow, chamomile and linden are good for sore throat and help reduce the inflammation. Elderberry and ginger again help the immune system.
Many herbal remedies are now used in conventional medicine.

Ignorance indeed.

I don’t get people thinking that planning is stupid or alarmist. At the end of the day it’s stuff that you’ll use anyway. I’m planning for the scenario that we might be on lockdown for a few weeks and having to take care of myself should I be unwell. Picked up a few boxes of packet soup and lemsip today. Stock building up but if nothing happens I’m still glad I bothered.

Thank you lovely people .

For those that dont like to read the actual posts, we use conventional otc meds, which i stated on my post, (i also have to use strong perscription ones for my MS, which i did not state).

My background is psychiatry and psythotherapy. But since becoming ill and having dc i have turned to other less conventional sphere of training, so did my clinical herbology and hypnosis training (tied into meditation). I went deeper into the bushcraft world and became interested in the food that european hunter gathers used and how they lived. That partnered with the herbology triggered an interest in how we processed food so that it lasted through the lean times, fermentation, drying, salting and preserving. For me learning the old ways and how to use them in the modern age now has become a lifestyle choice. So a bit of this and a splash of that etc.

This pandemic that seems to be happening now i am treating at best as a dummy run for something more destructive in the future at worst a possible lock down similar to China were people can no longer go to hospital for treatment, that is reserved for the critical and even then there are conflicting reports of what is happening at ground level.

So yes i am preparing for a scenario where upon hospitals are not able to take in any more cases of possible cv19 victims. I can not just help myself to meds used for pneumonia or other complications, but i can make sure that if we contract it in a mild capacity that i can deal with the symptoms and promote a quick recovery.

@TreesSandSea and @BlackeyedSusan Thanks for your support! I feel vindicated! I think we (as a society) have got so used to everything being constantly available, 24 hour Tescos etc that we have lost the habit of stocking up "in case" and we can't imagine that any kind of emergency could happen that means we can't get what we want, whenever we want it. Extreme weather and new viruses are only going to get more likely I feel, so we need to regain the habit.

@KundaliniRising I think you are very sensible. My mum used to make rosehip syrup in the 1970s for colds. And Elderberry jelly, and elderflower cordial. I think her mum used to make it in the 2WW. Everything with extra vitamins might help to boost immunity and at at time like this I would be using everything that might help.

@KundaliniRising thanks for the info. Can I ask about elderberry potentially causing or worsening cytokines storms? It seems there is conflicting evidence on this and I’m not sure what would help cytokine storms.

DH is about to enter hospital for a transplant that will leave him seriously immuno compromised for months. He’s 42. I’ll be caring for him out of hospital. So glad to see that he has been written off as not worth saving by a certain ‘contributor’ to this thread. 🙄
We live in the countryside. If he’s in hospital in London and there is a serious outbreak there I shall not be visiting him. I’ll stay where I am and look after the kids. I cannot risk a visit then end up infecting them.
Meantime I’ll be stocking up my hens this half term holiday. Fresh eggs will be great if we end up not leaving the house much.
I’m losing sleep over it all. Genuinely.

Love someone saying they "don't mean to be rude" then immediately calling someone ignorant

Leaving the natural remedies aside (and I don't see the harm if they don't counteract with, and you don't refuse essential "conventional" meds) I wanted to post a terribly shallow suggestion for hospital go bags Please ignore the irony of my user name for the purposes of this post Also this obviously doesn't apply if you are very seriously ill, I'm
thinking more being monitored or well enough to moan about being a patient

One thing I hate is feeling "unwashed" and horrible, especially when you are lying in bed all day and night. I have had quite a few unexpected hospital visits recently and my way of prepping is to make sure I always have (this is embarrassing to type) nice nails including toenails and hair not too scraggy - to balance out the shallowness of my post this involves, for me, making sure my head is regularly shaved and not all stubbly I always like to have shaved legs simply because they feel nicer on the crispy hospital sheets.

In terms of bag contents, I also bring moisturiser and lip balm as the hospitals dry out my skin and lips. Nicer shower gel than I use at home cheers you up. Also I have nicer nightdresses and pyjamas than I actually use at home, plus my local hospital insists on slipper socks or grippy soled slippers (if you don't have any you are issued with horrific slipper socks like the 80s anti verucca ones! and bringing your own flip flops for the shower is also good).

I realise this sounds terribly shallow but in my defence I'm not allowed to close my cubicle curtains in hospital so I'm always aware of being looked at. Also last time a lovely consultant complimented me on my pretty toenails and it was the highlight of my stay, quite frankly

I know making sure your hair and nails are always nice for unexpected hospital trips sounds bizarre if not insane but it genuinely makes me feel better and having more luxury items with me cheers me up.

Hopefully it won't come to that for anyone anyway!

Oh @OneOfTheGrundys my post really does seem ridiculous directly after yours I hope it all goes well for your DH and perhaps the nicer toiletries and nightwear idea might be useful at least to make him feel a bit better (he probably won't care about his toenails!)

(I'm just awaiting a post on the AIBU CV thread deriding and mocking someone for prepping by painting their nails )

We are taking vitamin D in this family, as uk winters won’t supply enough of it. Anything to boost the old immune system.

From what i have read of cytokines storms and the use of elderberry, elderflower or echinacea, there has not been any conclusion as to a connection between these herbs and cytokines storms. I have not found a propper research paper on this.

Info on Cytokine Storms can be found here

No it’s important to do whatever you need to do WeBuilt... no apologies needed... he has everything packed pretty much already! Including a full range of chemo hats in several colours!

@WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles

I thoroughly agree with you. Feeling clean and presentable in an environment where you’re being scrutinised all the time makes perfect sense. Anything to boost morale is a good thing imho.

@OhYouBadBadKitten 🤗you know you’re FAR from disposable 🌷💕

@Fourteafalkout

I don’t know what you said that got deleted, but I have a feeling I’d agree with you!

@GothMummy had something deleted the other day. I don’t remember what it said, but I’m sure it was equally reasonable

I suggested a poster should see her GP & get some therapy the other week. In context, on a long thread, where she was really struggling & we had been chatting and she thanked me for the suggestions. I got deleted & told off as it ‘could be upsetting to be told you need help’🙄🙄🙄moderation has gone to hell.

Please don’t let the idiots upset you - they’re simply not worth it. Let them poke fun & act like ostriches 🤷🏻‍♀️ They’ll be the ones to suffer... and I won’t be sharing my soup!! 🤣

I am very confused about this whole thing ! One minute I think it’s all getting better and won’t spread and the next it seems it’s going to spread everywhere !

I have been looking at the testing in this country and the number of positives isn’t going up so does that mean the virus was contained or are we just still expecting to see lots more cases?

In regards to the advice for schools it does sound like the government are just preparing to have the virus run its course if it gets here- I’m pretty glad we already home educate at the moment but I have no idea at what point we would stop going to meet ups/ classes/ friends etc.

Argh! I wouldn’t say I’m worried about this at the moment but oh so confused!

@OneOfTheGrundys

I’m very sorry to hear about DH needing a transplant, but I’m glad he’s close to getting one when he needs it. We are familiar with the wait & the worry.

I should be telling you not to worry & not to lose sleep in a calm & reassuring way, but that’s like asking a fish not to swim even without Covd19 so I won’t. But I will be thinking if you all - keep us posted.

@WeBuiltCisCityOnSexistRoles 💅🏻

Whatever helps 😊

A shower with my own bathroom products was definitely a highlight after several days of not being allowed to shower

If it’s easy enough to do, doesn’t harm anyone else & makes you feel better where’s the harm? 🌷

Thank you x
As for DH. We’ve just had a massive argument about my prepping. 😞
He’s convinced it’s part of my anxiety condition (I have long standing, well managed depression) but I feel that as long as it’s not hurting anyone, and it helps me to feel better, what’s the harm? He went mad because I’d bought a load of tinned food and put it in the shed in a sealed box. Water too. And then a wind up radio.
So. If nothing comes to pass much we have extra chickens, tinned food and a radio we can use in the garden. I don’t get why it angers him so much.

@Makinganewthinghappen

You’re not alone

I have a 3 way split on which way I think it’ll go & my brain is bouncing all over the place 😩. I think it’s a good thing part of my brain can’t accept the possibility of an actual pandemic- it seems too ‘unreal’ just in a ‘movie’. It stops me really worrying.

OTOH the Govts response to it is worrying me. I thought they’d be more proactive given the head start China gave us. I feel they’ve squandered the opportunity (but I can see some of the difficulties of putting up better barriers) and I accept, not being privy to their information & decision making process I could be wrong about my response to their actions (or lack of). It just seems things they are doing are contradictory!

I’m just trying to be prepared at home focussing mostly on the event of feeling too ill to go out. (So easy food, beechams, lozenges, tissues etc & plenty of loo roll, disinfectant, dioraltye etc in case of D&V)

Plus upping the hand washing at home & 70% alcohol hand gel when out and about. But trying to be logical and reasonable with it You really notice how manly some people are and I run the risk of making my hands very sore if I go too mad (I’m using hand lotion, but even so)

I do wish restaurants etc would up their game though, some hand gel beside the keypads for paying & registering your number plate for parking would be a good start. It concerns me if places aren’t even making a show if doing that, what are their other hygiene practices like?!

As with most people, I can’t control my work environment very much, so all I can do is maintain my own hand hygiene and TRY to stop touching my face every 2 seconds 😖

@AmelieTaylor wow really, a deletion? That surprises me.... I always try so hard not to cause anyone any offence and would be very upset if I thought I had. Wonder what it was.

@OneoftheGrundys so sorry about your husband. That kind of puts my worries in to perspective. I wish you all well.

Not surprised by the advice to schools, we had a local CV panic last week that turned out to be unfounded but parents got very worried and the rumour mill went crazy. Best to avoid that kind of situation if possible.

@OneOfTheGrundys

I’m sorry. You have enough going on without arguing with DH too x

What was his response to ‘What harm is it doing?’

Do you think he really doesn’t see the need or do you think he might be lashing out a bit as he feels vulnerable?

@GothMummy

Yes, that’s why I noticed because you’re always so nice!

10/02/2020 22:59 GothMummy

Message deleted by MNHQ. Here's a link to our Talk Guidelines.

It was in the 3rd prep thread Just chatting about vaccines etc 🤷🏻‍♀️

I’m sure you didn’t say anything deletion worthy, just another example of moderation gone mad! Or maybe the accidentally hit the big red button, I’ve had that happen too!

OneoftheGrundys, i hope that all goes well for your dh, you both must be so worried. It is good that you have some food in your cupboards, you will be looking after him when he gets home. So having some food in will be very useful, especially at such a stressfull time.

@Notstrongandstable haha yes you are right