Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

DH and I had a discussion about everything this morning. He was in the "its just flu" camp but now understands why I have been following this closely.

We have two DCs in independent school (relevant because we don't get fined if they don't go to school). They're not in high risk categories but DS1 seems to have a weak immune system and picks up every virus out there. He's ill a lot. DFiL has cancer and DM has breathing issues and already uses a respirator.

At the point at which this looks like its spreading widely (although quite how we decide what the tipping point is I'm not sure) we will probably take the DCs out of school and they can be home schooled for a bit. I'm lucky in that I run a business from home and so its doable.

In the BBC Pandemic experiment they said that simply handwashing can reduce the spread and rate of infection by a third. They started off with one patient in a small town in the South and a replication rate of 1.8. Within 2 months most of the country was infected and there was thousands of deaths.

*were

@ofwarren

Just wondering what the guidelines for schools will be when the total number of confirmed goes over 100 and the gov stop testing...children who get symptoms (cough and fever??) will have to be isolated at home but there will be no confirmation that they have it one way or the other? So they will still be expecting kids to attend the schools will they. Makes little sense to me.

And in general, we won't know it's near us...(unless someone local is hospitalised with it then they will be tested and confirmed I'm presuming. )

So we will be in a situation where, unless numerous people in our locale start being hospitalised and confirmed with it, we won't know it's arrived at our doorstep.

And by the time that happens we will probably have already caught it from the asymptomatic spreaders. 🤷🏻‍♀️

(To be fair I suppose that is already somewhat the case -albeit with a lower risk or catching it at the moment - as they are now only testing people who have a connection to China anyway 🤷🏻‍♀️)

The thing is we don't know when that point will because we're at least two weeks behind the current picture.
I'm shocked by the advice re schools.

I know I'll probably be flamed for saying it but I can't help but think that the response would have been better under a labour govt.

That's just my opinion though. Influenced more by things like grenfell. Tories seem to be more bothered by business than people.

I feel like they are more worried about the economy than actually protecting the vulnerable. Not sure if brexit has anything to do with it either

If it goes over 100 and they stop testing I will seriously consider de registering the kids and homeschooling them as well @HasaDigaEebowai

@wellididntseethatcoming I agree, the Tories have always but business before everything...although I understand closing schools etc is a last resort because of the massive impact on parents working and thus the economy. (This makes me very wary of just following their guidelines/rules on attendance. It's with the economy in mind rather than individual wellbeing)

I think any government has to find a balance and that would be the same which ever party was in power. The country will struggle to recover if businesses are paralysed by high numbers of people off sick or self isolating before its strictly necessary. If they thought it was containable I suspect they'd be quarantining. IMO they know they can't stop it spreading now. The wording used by the WHO about China buying us extra time was pretty sobering.

Brexit May have had an effect in that Johnson is pinning a lot of hope on trade deals with China (not banning flights? - although I read that being a member of EU also prevented banning flights so who knows)

I'm also expecting to home school if we aren't going to be informed of cases. I go to college twice a week and my husband works from home so it's totally doable. My eldest is also in college so that troubles me. I can't expect him to leave his course. I'll happily sit in a face mask at college and will be scrupulous with hygiene but I can't expect a 17 year old will do that.

Surely if it goes over 100, they would change the advice for schools though?

We can't home school without prior permission and you need to either be a teacher or have a teacher who will closely supervise you. So for us, it's pointless to worry about it.

Keep on top of the laundry basket, so that we do at least have clean clothes. Work out what I'd do if the dog-walker couldn't come. Check prescription medications. What are the likely knock-on effects of supply disruptions from China/ other countries? I read somewhere that sanpro materials have been diverted into making face masks? What other stuff could there be a shortage of?

LIGHTHEARTED

Dd and I have come up with a movie plot, working title 'Lockdown'. We think it's going to be a blockbuster.

A cruise ship off the coast of Japan is put into quarantine. Our cast list so far comprises

Brad Pitt or Matt Damon for the hero, natch. He's working, going to join his family but isn't allowed on board. "I've got to save my kids!"
Winona Ryder as mum, she dies. We reckon she would do a great job of dying pathetically. "Somebody take care of my children."
Gillian Anderson as the WHO official. "We can't risk this spreading worldwide! "
Morgan Freeman as the US president "You can't detain american citizens illegally! We're bringing our people home."
Cary-Hiroyuki Tagawa as the Japanese minister. "That ship cannot dock here."
Kenneth Branagh as the captain "I have orders to scuttle the ship!"
John Boyega as second-in-command "Sir, people are dying!"
Sigourney Weaver as the scientist racing to find a cure "We don't have time to run clinical trials, we need this NOW"
Giovanni Ribsi as a religious nutter who is convinced it's a plague from God. He freaks out and throws overboard a small dog that he's convinced is spreading the virus. Then Matt (I dont think Brad is right for the role, although am willing to do a screen test) accidentally throws Giovanni over in a struggle.
Olivia Colman as a journalist "We have to let people know what's going on! "

Tbh we're not too sure about the plot, but DD is going to do the music and it will have a happy ending for most passengers (not Winona, we're going to kill her off pretty quickly if she doesn't stop whining)

END LIGHTHEARTED

Meantime, back in the real world - steam inhalations - remember Karvol went bust? I found a new thing in Boots called Klearvol - reckon this would be great for breathing and chests.

@Ibloodylovewomen

That’s interesting re the elderberry. I’d never heard that before so will go and look it up, thank you.

Elderberry cordial is our drink of choice, just because we like it.

Fantasiaa did you mean to sound so ignorant and rude?

I shared my medicinal prep because i thought that it may be of use to other people. I have reached the point where i feel that the best bet for my family is to do everything possible to keep ourselves healthy. If we come down with this virus i would like to do everything possible to recover from it. I have MS and i am immune compromised, my system has to be in a state of balence or i get really very ill. So a good natural diet with at least 10 portions of fruit and veg, seeds, nuts is needed. Trace elements and compounds found in herbs and spices are a valuable source of material for our bodies systems. Lots of sleep and lots of exercise, at least 2 hours a day of pushing my body to its limits. Meditation on a daily basis to bring any stress down. Being ready for what may happen next is important to me and my family. Dh and i will do all we can to ensure that we are ready.

So fuck off with your disparaging 'hippy' comment

mojo i am becoming increasingly perplexed by our goverment stance on this issue. Why did China use such a strong responce? There is a huge discrepancy between actions of both governmental sets.

I am however eternally greatful that the Chinese goverment responce has perhaps bought the rest of the world some time.

I do worry about those whom live in the developing parts of the world, they are the most nutritionaly deprived and impoverished of people. There are whole swathes of humanity that are massivly at risk.

What about those in the UK that rely on foodbacks. Child povety in the UK is sho king

I am struggling to understand the response or lack of from the government over this. China are literally sealing people’s doors shut. The UK are saying don’t panic and can’t even be bothered to test people. What’s going on?

What do you want the UK government to do? There is one case in the UK being treated in hospital and c100 in quarantine in Milton Keynes.

The advice re schools seems rather illogical.

We got a long letter from my daughter's college yesterday (independant SN college for 16 -25) which said that students should not attend if they feel unwell, along with guidance on good hygiene practices, what to do if you suspect you might have covid-19 and how to self-isolate. Sounded like there's a good chance there'll be some practical stuff on handwashing and hygiene added to the curriculum after half term. Very reassuring that they're taking it seriously, though I guess it makes sense since they likely have a high proportion of students (including my daughter) who would be high risk.

Hi just thought as some have D&V type symptoms, it's probably worth making sure to have plainer BRAT type foods in too as well as plenty of laundry powder (And rehydration sachets which have already been mentioned/squash/ice lollies etc)

@KundaliniRising
I wasn’t trying to be rude.
Nothing about what you shared is “medicinal prep”
My point was simply that none of your herby concoctions are going to cure you of the novel coronavirus or prevent you getting novel coronavirus. If anything you sound ignorant.

I fully get being anxious. There’s potential for this to be the next pandemic. However, if you think making herby conditions and mediating is somehow going to protect you...

There is no treatment for coronavirus so if people want to distract themselves with herbs and such like, it won't do any harm. But it probably won't do very much. There's certainly no evidence for it.

Re paracetamol upthread, I can't find any studies saying it prolongs illness. I found a small study saying that it doesn't shorten the duration of symptoms. Not the same thing!

(Reuters) - An American passenger from a cruise ship docked in Cambodia has tested positive for the new coronavirus a second time in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia said on Sunday, after the cruise operator sought further tests

mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN20A06Q?__twitter_impression=true

I can sort of see the governments logic to a certain extent in that soon every school could be closed due to suspected cases and I guess their logic is that schools can't close indefinitely.

BUT

I'm not feeling very reassured, given they say they will stop testing soon into the outbreak and given the high number of false negatives, those with children who are vulnerable will have no idea if they need to be keeping their kids off.

I guess the issue is that it looks likely that this will spread everywhere and therefore if you have a genetic makeup that makes you susceptible to it, you will get it, if not in this round, then another round.

It doesn't though seem as though they are even trying to slow it down though. Perhaps they've deemed the economic cost of slowing it down too high? Perhaps they are trying to get the inevitable outbreak to peak in the summer when pressures on hospital beds is lowest? (I realise I've wandered into the realm of conjecture and perhaps conspiracy theory there)

Anecdotally, I've had fewer and less severe colds this winter, the first winter I've started taking a daily zinc. It could be sheer coincidence.

There’s no treatment currently but there is supportive care.

Again, if someone suspects they have novel coronavirus they should call 111 to access this care as opposed to self-treating with herbs.

@Fantasiaa, the way you have communicated your views on @KundaliniRising's preps has been needlessly rude.

@ofwarren I read that as a second test on the same passenger.