Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I think with swine flu, people only felt the need to stay at home if they had full blown flu symptoms, which wasn't that useful as many people had mild flu symptoms.

As this virus presents itself often quite mildly, especially in the early stages - creeping up rather than the sudden unwellness that flu brings, will we be asked to stay at home with any respiratory symptoms?

Many/Most people would go into denial - people could be home for weeks and I can't imagine employers being happy with that. So there would be a huge amount of denial going on.

I remember when dd got swine flu. I think I've said this before on one of these threads, her school were in utter denial about it and I was even told by a school receptionist over the phone that it wouldn't be swine flu, despite dd having a formal diagnosis.

I don't wish to see lockdowns, but it sounds like the uk government as just expecting this to run and are going to allow it to run through naturally.

I'm a frontline HCP in the NHS, I'm seriously considering putting together a bag with toiletries and a change or two of underwear incase I get relocated or not allowed home if the shit well and truly hits the fan.

I know my family is well stocked and will be ok at home.

@KundaliniRising
I doubt anything you’ve made will “strengthen your immune system” or treat those who do get the coronavirus.

Sorry, but you sound a little “hippy”.

The best thing to do if anyone gets ill is to call 111. Not administer homemade remedies.

Taiwan has just reported its first death

Thanks for all the responses. Definitely something to think through. @preponderings your situation sounds really complicated!
We have the added complication of dc's Dad not living with us. How would they see him 😱

PHE issuing new guidelines for schools.

www.theguardian.com/world/2020/feb/16/headteachers-are-told-to-stay-calm-and-keep-schools-open

@penguin

I’d already have it packed in the car/at work. Well packed too. I’d want more than a couple of pairs of pants if I had to stay at work for a fortnight. Chargers etc as well as a lot more pants& clothes. Snacks, books etc.

I thought you were going to say ‘...seriously considering resigning or wearing a full on face mask/shield’ both would be understandable, especially given how under prepared the NHS appears to be in terms of protective masks/clothing.

So advice to schools is below. I think this basically confirms that the Govt will be taking a very relaxed approach.

"For those who are in contact with a suspected case in a childcare or educational setting, no restrictions or special control measures are required while laboratory test results for Covid-19 are awaited.
/info/2015/dec/08/daily-email-uk
“There is no need to close the setting or send other learners or staff home. Therefore, until the outcome of test results is known, there is no action that staff members need to take. People who test negative for Covid-19 will be advised individually about their return to education.”

She said it was helpful for schools to approach the virus like any other infectious disease. “Therefore, it is not advised that the whole school is notified that an individual is undergoing testing. Rather, communications to contacts would be circulated if a case is confirmed,” she added."

Death in Taiwan is a guy in his 60s with no known contact with other confirmed cases and no travel history.

Well the government response plays right into the chorus of 'it's just the flu', so what can you do?

I will not be seeing my dad who's in his 60s and has COPD if the rest of us are carrying on as normal.

@Sanblasamor

I guess depending on whether you & he are both single or not & how you get on, he could come & stay with you or there’s Skype/FaceTime etc.

A lot of people will be in the same position and many others also with older parents etc

Frankly I can’t see the UK Govt being willing or able to enforce any kind of lock down, so it’ll probably more a case if parents agreeing the best /safest option for their children. I pity people where the other parent will put their ‘rights’ above their children’s needs.

On the upside the numbers in China are slowing down...

But...

That is with radical action that just wouldn't be taken here.

I think all the signs are that they'll do contact tracing and 'containment' for a few more weeks and then will just let it run its course. I was hoping they would do something in the middle (school closures, cancellation of mass gatherings but no lockdown) so that the spread would be slower.

PS: Just had a notification pop up that the Taiwan guy had other health issues (Hep B & Diabetes)

I don’t understand the advice to schools - why bother isolating all those people with no symptoms who were flown back from China, and then keep schools open when someone is known to be being tested?

Jesus. With advice like that for schools, it’s pretty clear how these things spread so quickly 🤬

Reading about all the people currently rocking up at doctors and hospitals convinced they have Covid (despite not having travelled nor been in contact with someone known to be infected) it's not too surprising that the advice re schools seems lax. Presumably they anticipate a lot of negative tests and feel that stronger measures will result in vast numbers of unnecessary school closures which impact on parents working and so on.

I would be surprised if individual schools aren't closed in the event of someone genuinely being expected to get a positive result. Perhaps I am giving the government too much credit though!

Latest from school...

If it is the case that anyone at the College does develop symptoms of COVID-19, we will follow PHE guidance as to any steps we will need to take with regard to isolating affected pupils or closing the school

I think most parents will just assume the advice would be to isolate the pupil, test their closest friends/teachers & act from there No do jack shit and twiddle their fingers while the child merrily spreads it around the school.

I personally feel like we have been given an opportunity to protect our population from this, but the Govt have basically shrugged their shoulders. 🥺

I know they don’t want mass hysteria but personally I think people would be less worried if they felt the Govt was taking it seriously & doing more!

I’m really surprised about that school advice.

We live very rurally and it would be relatively easy to self isolate, whether that’s because one of us is ill or it starts up locally. I want to be ready to keep us away from the outside world for at least a month, if needed.

I’ve been a prepper for about 5 years, and in that time my stash has helped no end of times; snow (4 days stuck in), illness, months where we’ve been right for cash; water turned off; power cuts and being flooded out, when we knew exactly what to grab and where is was. Oh and running out of milk 😉

I am immune suppressed though have recently stopped my meds because I have a bad cold and am trying to recover!

I’m going to venture to the shops later to get some more bits and pieces - we have:

3-4 weeks of food for 5 of us
3 days of water plus purifying tabs for 2 weeks more
Paracetamol, lemsip, ibuprofen (enough for 2 weeks of all of us ill) thermometer
4 weeks of loo roll
Bleach, hand sanitizer, 5 masks, latex gloves (we use these anyway for various things)
I’m excited that I have also ordered a huge bag of pancake mix! Arriving tomorrow. Might get another as no doubt we’ll have to try it out
We have chickens so eggs every day
We have fuel etc
Home Ed type stuff for the kids if it comes to that

I need more -
Bin bags
Tissues
Hand soap
Paracetamol
Soup and things
Dog food

What else? Anyone think of anything in particular that might be useful?

TIA

I think the advice to schools just shows the government had given up trying to do much and are just taking a "qué sera sera" attitude.

In terms of making homemade potions and tinctures, I don't think any of the stuff listed will hurt plus the fruit, veg and vitamin c might help with general health, and the honey and lemon etc could help ease symptoms. Plus the placebo effect is real.

@TreesSandSea

Possibly some extra loo roll in case you get the D&V that some are getting with it.

Have you got additional laundry liquid?

& the essentials...
Coffee?
Wine?
Chocolate?

Those of you who were considering not putting their kids back in school at the end of half term of it continues to spread: given the relaxed advice of gov on attending school, what do you think you will do now?

I'm quite troubled by that new advice floatygoat. My son's school do already let me know about any illnesses because of his condition but I am going to go in next Monday and talk to both his school and my other son's nursery and tell them I NEED to know if there are suspected cases. They won't say no because I'm already informed about everything else.
My main worry now is that if people are not going to be tested and are just told to self isolate, how am I supposed to know when it's in the community? I'm currently informed of measles outbreaks and things like that but it doesn't look like I will know about coronavirus!

I’d want more than a couple of pairs of pants if I had to stay at work for a fortnight.

Good point. I could wash them, but I'd have nowhere to dry them. I just ordered a spare charging cable from Amazon and some cheap multipack socks and knickers from Sainsburys. I'd have ten days worth if I just binned them. I'd have to go commando after that, although if it were to get to that extreme, being knickerless would be the least of my worries!

Floaty- I live in Brighton. Kept them off on Weds but sent them back in Thu & Fri when we had more info. I'll be sending them back in until there's a confirmed case at school. What else can you do?
We got more info on the self idolaters and I deemed it low risk. There have been no more confirmed cases here. This may go on for a while and more confirmed cases are inevitable so I'm taking a business as usual approach, albeit with better hand hygiene!

pickupapenguin maybe some snacks would be good in your prep bag and sanpro? A power bank? B&M often have these reduces to a few £.
Hairbrush, toothbrush, wetwipes?
Anything to make life a bit more comfortable.