Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Piloting of COVID home testing in London to reduce ambulance use and people rocking up to hospitals

www.bmj.com/content/368/bmj.m621

More messaging from WHO that China's efforts have 'bought the world time'

To me this basically pretty much says they've accepted it will spread and China has just given us more time to prep our health services

apnews.com/a21d4e909743a094dc5cc0bd1c543a06

Do the online pharmacies where you can buy salbutamol inhalers from contact your GP to check your prescription or let them know you’ve bought some?

It is up to you whether or not you allow them to contact your GP. You have to fill in a form to show that your asthma is well-controlled. I guess if you lie, they are not liable if anything bad happens to you as a result of the extra Ventolin. I got some. Cheapest I have found is here: www.simpleonlinepharmacy.co.uk/online-doctor/asthma/ventolin-inhaler/

Oh dear. Shouldn't laugh really. But the 23.28 oops is such an enormous understatement.

Bit of a fuck up there.

Also, I don't think Tamiflu is actually particularly effective against coronaviruses, but you can absolutely find it online if you google.

Wasn't the Westerdam the one they would not let dock in several countries? Bet they are thinking.. we told you..

Japan has officially confirmed that they consider that they have a local epidemic now

The Ministry of Health, Labor, and Welfare has been maintaining the view that "there is no local epidemic in Japan". However, based on recent evidence of five cases that had no direct connection to China and no known source of infection, it has been determined that a local outbreak has begun.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/f4blag/japanndeclaresstateeoflocall_epidemics/

I've been lurking and finding these threads very informative.

I've started to put together some basics in case of needing to stay put at some point. But keep wondering about something, I live in a flat with 2 young children and so have no access to outdoor space without having to go through communal stairwell/lift used by all people from this block. So in the case that we had to stay in would I be better to go and stay at a relatives so that the children had access to a garden for getting time outside?

I reeeeeeally should be in bed.

Anyway...another 70 cases on the Diamond Princess so = 355 now!

Us too San. And an added complication is our washing machine is on cellar level in a washing room with everyone else's. Also the only place I can store food is in our cellar (which the neighbours can see into!).
I think all we can do is make sure the staircase is aired, avoid using the lift and make sure the Dc don't run their hands down the banisters. And only DH or me go out for washing, bringing food up etc.
I think I would plan on getting the Dc up at 5 and taking them for a run outside when there's no one around, or would that not be allowed?

I'm not sure I would want to decamp to the IL's. I'd have to share a room with the Dc for a start! All their toys and games and puzzles are here, all the books I could potentially use to home school them, computer etc. Tv to keep them quiet entertained . All our fitness things. I think I'd rather stay put. Plus MiL would go into massive stress overdrive if she had to host us for any length of time.

Personally I think staying in your own home with small DC, even without a Garden, would be preferable. It would be massively stressful enough without adding in ‘not being in your own home’

I’d open the windows as much as possible and allow small children to jump & play around on a mattress ‘on the floor’ (you don’t want to risk the actual bed getting broken) and play games like musical chairs and hide & seek playing in the bath too. I’d get in some ingredients for play doh, paint, bubbles, black board & chalks Anything that’s active/sensory. Ball pit balls good in a dry bath Pack of cards - even very small ones can play games with them. A new gamesome new books.

Some children’s vitamins

Then some fairly decent masks, disposable gloves etc for the adults to go out/to the basement.

Making sure both parents are spending some of their day doing activities with the kids will be important for everyone’s MH. Trying to make sure there’s not too much screen time for anyone, will help

If they’re not toddlers, see if you can think of a family project (paint a mural on a child’s wall, build a train track landscape, or a moonscape/city/farm with papier-mâché etc. For a train set/Lego/dolls etc.

Use home schooling web sites for inspiration.

But think about it now & get supplies in.

From WHO:

The WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus warned however that it was "impossible to predict which direction this epidemic will take".

"We ask all governments, companies, and news organisations to work with us to sound the appropriate level of alarm without fanning the flames of hysteria," he said, speaking at the Munich Security Conference.

"China has bought the world time. We don't know how much time."

I think this is being deliberately underplayed by the government and the media, and probably rightly so.

I am in exactly the same situation @Sanblasamor, and a relative has also made the same offer to us. I'm not sure what we would do but I think we would say yes although it would be inconvenient to be away from home. But that is also based partly on our location, which I think is particularly risky as we are in London near major transport hubs.

To be honest I'm more concerned that we could already have been exposed by the time it reaches that stage (if it does) and that we could then be a risk to my relative who has poor health.

Can I just ask for some advice. I'm not worried this is coronavirus but it's made me wonder how we would know if it was, seeing as we haven't had any contact with anybody as far as we know. So shouldn't have any reason to worry.

We're a family of 6. In the last 48 hours 3 of us became really unwell with about 12 hour gaps.
Realistically it probably started last week with a cough, but suddenly everybody described symptoms yesterday of not feeling able to breathe and having a tight chest, and then there was vomiting and a fever and everybody's felt better quite quickly.

Like I said I don't think it's coronavirus but how would one know if you hadn't been in contact with anybody? Could lots of people have already had it without knowing?

Getting a bit scary. Does anyone know if summer is likely to bring cases down? Give the world time to find a vaccine

That article in Taiwan news is very worrying

apple.news/ApSbatOr5RoGuKVd4wg5ayg

The baby was negative

Well I didn’t - there’s loads of things going round at the moment . I have 6 children and the last week or two there’s has been some kind of virus making the rounds through us all. Started with feeling sick and a cough then onto temp and general unwell feeling. But after a day or two of feeling fevery they got better. I think it’s just the time of year!!

It does show how difficult it’s going to be to track cases etc if it does become widespread here .

Assuming it isn’t already that is!

I think they are saying now that warmer temperatures are not going to kill it off. My hope was that it would die out by April. It’s been surviving and proliferating in the warmer temperatures in Japan etc.

We are in a flat. All our stuff is here. I could not fit anything in the car to get to somewhere else.

I have made a syrup to a) boost our immune systems and b) treat any cv19 bugs.

Dried rosehips,
Dried echinacea leaves,
Dried Icelandic moss,
Dried elderflowers, all of these were picked last year and dried.

Star anise (basis of tamiflu) also tastes nice,
Cinamon,
Nutmeg,
Tumeric,
Ginger,
Honey,
Dark brown molasses sugar, high in iron and other trace elements.

Rehydrated rose hips, put in big pan to simmer down and break up. Strained out all but the juice. Whizzed up the other herbs and added to the rosehip juice. Add spices, the star anais separately crushed up in a little bit of cloth tied with twine, honey, sugar, leave to simmer down for a day. Cool then bottle up, 1litre and 3 jam jars.

Tastes like covonia cough mixture, rather yummy.

I have lots more of the dried ingredients so that i can make more if needed.

We are also drinking 'curry tea shots', a tea spoon of tumeric and ginger in warm water. These are both adaptogenic herbs.

Also taking multivit and mineral, vit c, and vit d.

Fruit and veg intake is 10 potions a day as standered.

If illness occures then i will be making hot smoothies made from lemon, ginger, tumeric and honey.

Thyme tea, with peppermint and camamile (all of which are dried and ready) for coughs.

Feverfew tincture that i made last year if temp gets higher than 40oc.

Valerian tincture made last year, to aid restful sleep.

As well as stock of otc meds.

There's a full write up of the front page of the Telegraph on the link below.

Basically saying that if we get into 100+ cases people will just be told to self-isolate if they have symptoms.

So effectively dealing with it in the same way swine flu was dealt with - no lockdowns or measures like China has put in place.

https://www.reddit.com/r/ChinaFlu/comments/f4jz7e/exclusiveemillionstoobetolddstayatthome_if/

Givemeallthegin8 - I laughed when you said about storing milk in "the press". Are you from a rather rainy little country nearby?