Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

But excluding the cruise ship cases from Japan obvs!

With regards to emerging into a new population you wouldn't expect to see a doubling pattern at this point. Many of the cases are single cases that can be contained easily, while others are I guess to coin a phrase are superspreading events giving a false impression of an overall pattern.

Only when it is spreading freely could you expect to see a full picture emerge.

Has that calculation been made using the entire area of Australia, which is largely uninhabitable?

@ibloodylovewomen do you know what dose for the elderberry and whether tablets/capsules work? I found syrup on amazon but would need a lot of bottles at 60mls a day per person.

Japan only had 2 cases three weeks ago...both with direct links to Wuhan.

Now they have 53 excluding the cruise ship with several where they haven't been able to find out where they caught it and quite a few of local transmission.

Yes, the population density includes all of the country. I realise this is a blunt measure as the cities are densely populated however it's fair to say the UK is nothing like Oz in terms of spreading due to the vast distances between populated areas in Australia.

I'd potentially expect a bit less than Japan though as there is more Japan/China travel than UK/China travel so Japan will have had more 'sparks' to try and contain.

Will be interesting to see how it all unfolds.

Must be an exciting time to be an epidemiologist.

I am sitting here sneezing away and due to not working for the past two weeks and having depression (bipolar) I've only left the house a handful of times so that's a reminder of how easy things can be to catch (disclaimer: have not been doing extra hand washing, social distancing or disinfecting during that time)

Worth bearing in mind as well as Australia being so vast, they stopped flights from China and we haven't...so we are still importing the virus via direct travel from the 'hub' as it were.

Local TV reports in Japan are saying the latest 8 cases include taxi drivers who went to a taxi union party on a boat.

This is the kind of shit even the best epidemiologists can't predict...

The world would be much safer in a potential pandemic if everyone was an introvert...

Can anyone advise on this? I live alone, with three cats.

If I caught Covid 19 and was sent to hospital, what would happen to them as presumably house would be out of bounds for a while due to potential infection on surfaces etc.

So no one would be able either to come in and feed them, or take them to a cattery for me.

Do you have any friends, family or neighbours you could rely on?

If so, get a spare key cut for them (useful anyway if you live alone and lock yourself out).

If not, I am currently raising to the Cats Protection HQ that we might need to step in and help is such circumstances. I volunteer for them.

Take down a note of your local Cats Protection branch, they will do everything they can to help in those kind of circumstances.

Equally there are people like me in the community that would help if necessary so consider reaching out on local FB pages. You would want some way of checking out you had a decent person - for example if they could take a photo of their passport and send it to you or something similar.

When I go on holiday I use a cat sitter service rather than a cattery so that would be another option (she lets herself in twice a day with a key) as long as you could have a spare key hidden somewhere or put it in your hospital grab bag so it could be disinfected and handed over?

I see what you mean about not going in.

As a cat lover if someone in my community needed it, I would go in with a mask and latex gloves to get the cats and then do a full strip down in the porch.

Not sure how one disinfects a cat?

I guess I would have to wash them in the bath

This is actually being tackled in China. People are volunteering to help pets in this situation. I have no doubt that would be activated spontaneously here.

I thought I read that cats couldn’t carry it?

I’d go in & get someone’s cat & bring it home, but I’d buy new stuff for it, rather than bringing it ‘stuff’ from the house.

But that’s all just ‘gut feeling’ not based on any actual knowledge.

Words if I had a friend in need, I would probably be happy to nip round a friends house with some gloves, a mask and antibac; scrub down the front door handle, and nip in enough to put down some food. Not great for the cats in terms of emptying litter tray etc, but might be OK enough for the week they think it can survive on surfaces?

In terms of taking paracetamol vs letting the fever work it’s magic, I’m planning on taking paracetamol if both DP and I get it at the same time. I’d rather feel like shit for 2 weeks but be able to function enough to shove on some pasta/soup if needed; rather than be confined to bed for 1 week with a massively high fever that means no one gets fed or cared for.

On a prepping note, I’ve decided I’m going to take advantage of a weekend to myself trapped indoors to better organise the cupboards. I’ve been a bit lazy recently in terms of proper rotation and having stuff in sensible places; this Event has given me the kick up the bum needed to get my act together!

Not sure how one disinfects a cat

Forget gloves and a mask, I’d want full body armour before tackling that task!!!

Cats can't carry it, as in pass on the virus in the same way humans are but I can imagine their fur carries it like a "surface" does and it will be gone in 9 days.
It would be a case of someone wearing a mask and gloves to go in and feed and then after 9 days, removing them to take them elsewhere till the patient comes home.

I was in Homebase this morning (not cv related) and asked out of interest if they had any masks (meaning for decorating). The member of staff told me that they had sold out country-wide due to cv fears. I was quite surprised given the complacency of a lot of people.

Marking my place because I can't keep up

Thanks all. Yes I know people who would help out I think - it's a lot to ask though isn't it. Would mask and gloves be sufficient though? I was thinking the whole hazmat outfit and how unfeasible that would be.

All but one of the 9 CV patients in the UK have been discharged so that's good news!

@zen1

Although a lot of people are complacent I suspect there are plenty who are quietly prepping.

There will be plenty who follow this thread without commenting (I think studies show for every person who comments on a forum c. 100 people read it without commenting? Or it might be 10 which is quite a big difference!)

There's a UK Reddit Coronavirus sub now and I am a lurker on there - a few prepper type threads popping up on there. Plus a decent amount of UK users post on the global Coronavirus subs (again, I'm a lurker).

I shared a summary of why I'm concerned in a private group of closest ten friends and they're doing various levels of prepping from reasonably serious to just stocking a few extra tins.

That's brilliant news wheresmymojo! I wonder which patient is left?

Thread 4... Cool!

Need some prepping advice please! I always thought I wasn't a prepper but seeing the amount of stuff I actually have, I think I am a secret prepper!

1)Reusable batteries - I have an old charger but it's 12 years old. Have no idea if it actually works. Any recommendations for charger and resuable batteries plus normal batteries for backups? (Thought i had loads turns out the children used a huge box on the x-box controller.)

2. Some of my tins are Best Before June-Dec 2020. How rigidly do I need to stick to these dates? I recall eating some kidney beans that were over 10 years out of date as a child and I didn't die (they were nuked in a stew).

3. What sort of things are likely to sell out first in a panic situation or in case of china not manufacturing for a while?
   Want to make sure I have enough of those things plus anything that we buy semi-frequently but struggling to think of what right now!