Prepping for a pandemic...4

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a COVID pandemic.

General COVID Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. Experts estimate that, unchecked, it could infect 60% of the population.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment (compared to 0.01-0.1% for flu). This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of COVID

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).

Updates

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

I wonder which patient is left?
Probably the Uber patient?

Where do you get that info from anyway please @wheresmymojo ? I can’t see it on Worldometer.

Place marking x

wheresmymojo, I suspect you’re right regarding the ‘quiet’ preppers. I’ve not discussed it with any of my friends as they’d be . I have suggested to my parents that they get some extra stuff in (they are of the make-do-and-mend generation, so not averse to the idea. My DF has a life-limiting lung disease, so I’m particularly worried about him.

I’m trying to keep rational by telling myself that despite the horrendous loss of life in the Spanish Flu pandemic, none of my Grandad’s family (7 kids) or Grandma’s family (11 kids) succumbed to it, despite living in poor, cramped conditions in a built up area near a port.

@YoursTunbridgeWells

Power:
I would have a wind up torch or two, and radio. (Saves on batteries)
Power bank
Batteries and battery powered torches, lamps, head torch.

Cleaning:
Hand gel, (high alcohol content)
Soap
Dettol disinfectant and spray
Milton steriliser solution
Laundry liquid... Increase in washing outdoor clothes and towels?
Cleaning sponges, paintwork door handles etc
Shampoo etc

Sanpro, apparently from up thread

Food that is easy to heat up if poorly. ( Soup, baked beans batch cooking, frozen etc) or just add hot water (cup a soup, mug shots, cous cous sachets)

Food that keeps well but you would eat anyway, pasta, rice, tinned beans, (kidney,butter, cannelli as well as baked) Passata, tinned tomatoes and jars of sauce. Tinned and frozen veg. Tins of curry, chilli, stew, fish, meat etc if you eat them. ( See Brexit threads)

Vitamins and OTC meds.

Masks, gloves, goggles.

Entertainment, school resources ( two weeks quarantine or school closures)

It is a case of what happens if: schools close ( flooding, snow, infection)

You are ill, ( meds, easy cook food)

Self quarantine if you come into contact with an infected person, ( two to four weeks food and supplies of everything you normally use day to day) (or bloody chicken pox)

Power cuts... ( Snow, wind, lightning)

Water off ( leak, planned work)

Leaving house in emergency ( sick relative, flooding, fire WW2 bomb, remember that theatre that had to close the opening night of a play about the war? Where was that? )

Pet stuff if you have them?

high temperature is the way our bodies fight off infections. By us constantly reducing them down we often prolong illness
@Ibloodylovewomen have you got any evidence for this? Genuine question.

The USA have started testing some of the samples sent to their labs to test for ordinary flu, for CV19 as well (at random, not anyone they suspect of being at risk). It should give a good read on if the CV19 is out and about in the population but ‘undercover’ so to speak. I wonder if the UK are doing the same?

Also CNN.com have a good live update going on the topic. You click on it from the main page

High temperature is an immune response in that it makes the conditions slightly less optimal for reproduction of the pathogen.
One reason cold viruses mainly affect the respiratory tract is that this is at a slightly lower temperature than the rest of the body and is a more optimal temperature for cold virus replication.
However it is not the only way we fight off infection. We also produce antibodies that stop an infection reproducing and make more of a particular type of white blood cell that can surround a pathogen and digest it,!

@echobench it's worth just having a read around - there have been lots of studies on it, though like most things there's not a black and white answer, and some instances where it's good to reduce fever. I watched a Horizon programme a while ago about our obsession with Calpol in the UK, which started me looking into it.

We do use paracetamol in our house if we're just feeling terrible as it obviously helps with aches and sore throat etc, but I reach for it far less than we used to and it has been interesting to notice a decrease in the length of our colds etc. So I'm not saying it doesn't have it's place, but in a situation where I was faced with a new virus, I would try to avoid lowering fever unless I really felt it necessary.

@BlackeyedSusan Thank you so much. Actually I have most of that already and plans for lack of power and water. It's helpful just to see it and I can see the weaker points in my planning.

I noticed that the Aldi nearest me has put out extra wipes, tinned soup and lemsips. This time of year of course but I reckon quite a few people are quietly stocking up in case there’s a few weeks we all have to stay at home and everything shuts. I live alone and am healthy but personally didn’t realise how underprepared I was if I couldn’t just nip out to a shop. Even something as small as an extra lightbulb and stash of extra loo rolls, would be miserable to do without.

@YoursTunbridgeWells

Great. Post your list so I can find my weak points too.

Just been to our local Sainsbury's and they are almost totally out of hand gel- only the small carex limited edition ones left- I asked the sales woman nearby where the own brand/larger ones were and she indicated the empty shelves either side. She said they got a delivery last night and all had sold today! First sign I've seen of panic buying.

Sorry not read the full thread(s) but for my fellow asthma suffers I didn’t know if this had been shared you don’t need a prescription from your Dr to get your inhalers if you want to stock up. You can also get the from online pharmacies (I get mine from here onlinedoctor.superdrug.com/asthma-treatment.html) the more complex ones are expensive but two Salbutamol for £19 delivered isn’t bad. I already pay £18 for two prescriptions. I stocked up for Brexit and they came very quickly.

Also you can buy Antihistamines in bulk from Amazon £4.83 for 12 months supply. I guess a lot are made in China like other medicines so they might run low in stores?

Also remember extra bin bags. I read a Reddit thread about some some people who are self isolating saying they were having problems with waste disposal as they live in a flat. It also occurred to me that bin rounds might be interrupted I’d lots of people get ill. So have a think about where you could store waste.

Just been to our local Tesco express to grab coffee that I had forgot and the medicine aisle is decimated.
I spoke to the Manager as I know her and she said for the last few days, the medicines are disappearing as quick as she puts them out.
There was no paracetamol, ibuprofen, Calpol, nurofen, hand wash, hand gel, face wipes, lemsip etc. Thankfully I have lots of this stuff 😁

Good thing I got an extra back up bottle of Calpol and Neurofen for kids last week!

Checked our medical cabinet last night and thanks to DH being a bit of a medicine hoarder it turns out we got a lot of useful stuff in there including surgical spirit and various things for various ailments.

Brexit stash of meds has meant I have not had to worry too much about stocking up. I have done top ups but not needed to rush round lots of shops. That helps with reducing contacts.

Also, at the risk of being patronising, if you are one of those people who only uses their inhalers very infrequently, just check the expiry date on the cannister. My brother and my sister both had out of date ventolin when I told them to check it at Christmas. It's easily done and easily fixed.

I have stocked up on Calpol 6+. It is very good for older children and even has an adult dose on there. My teens have ASD and don’t like swallowing tablets, so a liquid paracetamol is ideal.

@FourTeaFallOut I don’t have to use mine that often. Checked it recently and found out it was from 2018 🤦🏻‍♀️ It’s worth checking them!

DH and I are buying 2 packets of supermarket brand meds every time we go in now so we have quite a lot now. Was chatting to a friend who works for a large corp and she said all her hong Kong colleagues are working from home but that they are really struggling because a) they all live in tiny apartments so if they have kids there is nowhere to go (thank goodness we have a garden) and B) they've all had to stop using video conferencing as the citywide broadband just was not set up for EVERYONE to be working from home at the same time.

Has anyone found any ‘long shelf life’ bake your own rolls? (No I don’t want to buy flour and make my own & I stupidly gave the bread maker away. It was sensible at the time so as not to tempt myself to eat bread (should low carb to control my diabetes) no freezer either.

From the BBC - Coronavirus: Eight of nine UK patients receiving treatment discharged

Amelie The best long shelf life 'ready to bake' loaves were from Costo. I think they had about 12 to 16 weeks on them. Long time since I had a Costo card, so I hope that is still the case.

"U.S. woman previously on Westerdam cruise ship tests positive for new coronavirus"
globalnews.ca/news/6555892/westerdam-cambodia-coronavirus-passenger/

She tested negative on the ship, but on arrival in Malaysia had symptoms and a test came up positive. Apparently her husband also has symptoms but tested negative.
The implications of that seem a bit worrying since presumably most of the passengers are on their way home to a whole host of countries or about to be.