Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

yes but there is flu going on....and this coronavirus now at the same time....2 different things!

so, if this does mutate....whats that likely to be?

Plantain I'm not having a go at you, but for me it helps to be prepared. Coronavirus can lead to pneumonia which I've had twice. For me that meant symptons of feeling really weak, not being able to get warm despite turning heating to 30c and putting a quilt over me, struggling to get enough air in and painful when I did. Last time I admitted defeat that I needed to go to doctor (I dread them like people dread the dentist). I hadn't had the energy to wash for four days and literally cried as I felt I couldn't see the doctor without doing so. My DH ran the bath, help me in and dried me.

Also if it does take off here, my DH will have an increased workload supporting people (not a doctor), so we need to stay strong for eachother, our family and others.

It helps me too ifonly. I panic LESS if I feel in control of the situation.
Normal flu season is bad enough with my ill child, so having coronavirus here too means I have to be extra vigilant.

The thing is it ISN'T necessarily worse than flu. The WHO are being cautious and taking it seriously because at the moment it's a relatively unknown entity. That doesn't mean it is going to turn out to be worse than flu, it just means it is new.

The daily mail don't help with their incessant naming of it as "the killer disease" or "the deadly disease".

twitter.com/VictoriaLIVE/status/1228269266308386816?s=19
‘Ambulances have to be completely cleaned and disinfected’

Saffron Cordery, from NHS Providers, says taking suspected coronavirus patients to hospital in ambulances is causing delays.

She says they should self-isolate and avoid public transport.

t.co/9Rb9SPoicV t.co/pM0cVy9c0r

The Mail link posted earlier says that the delegate to the bus conference was NOT London woman but they don't say who it was.

www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey-news/heathrow-live-coronavirus-passengers-isolation-17747621.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Heathrow live updates as passengers allegedly held in isolation due to coronavirus fears

More people die from the flu every year.

More people die of flu every year because more people are exposed to the flu virus every year. As a result, those who are elderly, the young and those with chronic illnesses are eligible for the vaccine to reduce the chance of infection. Death by flu stands around 0.02% nevertheless tens of thousands die from it on a good year.

Now, the coronavirus has an expected fatality rate of 1%, in a country with good healthcare which is not swamped by cases. So, if covid-19 is able to spread, without a vaccine you can expect an additional number of deaths in the order of flu x 500 on a good day.

That's just the dead people. The number of people requiring intensive care to survive swamps the flu too.

Also, when you "recover" that just means you are no longer harbouring the virus. That doesn't account for all the additional people who will be left with chronic lung disease as a result of a virus that is definitely not comparable to the flu in magnitude to you personal risk, the risk of people around you, and the social and economic consequences.

@lintrollerseverywhere & @Plantainchips

The seasonal flu infects c.10% of the UK population max each year, that's on a 'bad flu' year and most years it is less

There are vaccinations so that those most likely to have a severe case can have a free flu jab (covering the most likely strain for that year)

The mortality rate for the seasonal flu in the UK is 0.01-0.1%.

Please compare this to:

Experts estimate that left unchecked COVID could infect 60% of the population.

There are no vaccinations. There is no way of protecting those most likely to die.

Experts estimate c.15% of those infected will need hospitalisation.

The current mortality rate is estimated to be 1-2% by the world's best epidemiologists. That is many, many times worse than the seasonal flu. It is ten to twenty times worse.

It's a very crude way of applying the maths but:

70m with a 60% infection rate = 42m
If 15% of these need hospitalisation = 6.3m
If 1-2% die = 420,000 - 840,000 dead

Even if these numbers turn out to be a little on the high side do you really think the NHS can cope with millions needing hospitalisation and oxygen at the same time?

Don't you think that 840,000 people dying (in addition to the normal flu deaths) is something worth actually thinking about?

Do you think China is spending $10 billion(!) on containment because it's just like the flu?

Do you think cities bigger than London are being put on full lockdown because it's just like the flu?

I mean surely a grain of common sense would tell you countries don't disrupt their entire economies, spend $10 bn and lockdown millions of people so that they don't get a case of sniffles?

I mean I'm not directing this at you personally but for all the 'it's just the flu' people - obviously the health authorities wouldn't put an entire plane full of people at Heathrow on lockdown because one of them turned out to have the bloody flu.

How can people not see that?

Denial is such a strong thing...

news.sky.com/story/passenger-with-suspected-coronavirus-lands-at-heathrow-11933706
Passenger with suspected coronavirus lands at Heathrow
Passengers allowed to carry on with their journey after "filling in a form"

That being said I can see that people have a hard time balancing two facts that seem conflicting but are both correct:

• For any one individual who is below 60, not a health worker and have no existing medical issues there is no big need to worry for themselves personally as they are likely to only have mild flu like symptoms

This is true at the same time that the following is true:

• There could be hundreds of thousands of deaths

• You may lose someone or more than one person you are close to who isn't under 60 and healthy

• The hospitals would be totally overwhelmed, the general population panicking, global supply chains disrupted, runs on supermarkets, etc.

These are all true at the same time - it is not a case of picking A (it's just the flu, no need to be concerned at all) or B (everyone panic).

Both of these situations are simultaneously possible which is why people need to be alert, not anxious and prepared, not panicked.

Passengers on that flight have been allowed to leave the airport and the guy interviewed on skynews said he has no plans to isolate.

ffs

We’re still in flu season, hospitals will already be dealing with this, if Coronavirus infects large numbers before the end of flu season, how are they going to be able to cope with both? It doesn’t seem to be spreading rapidly at the moment, but if it did then “normal flu” would add to the problem.

This is why someone, the Chief Medical Officer, I think said yesterday that they were trying to delay a potential outbreak until spring.

Yes - CMO said that.

We don't know how effective that will be though as it's spreading pretty well in HK & Singapore right now...

Weirdly tests done showed it preferred cold and hot climates (very unusual) but didn't like in between which would be good for us.

Just one study though and given the unusual results would need replication I think.

alert, not anxious and prepared, not panicked.
Brilliant wheresmymojo
Sticking our heads in the sand helps nobody. Everyone needs to take precautions to try and minimise the spread.

Weirdly tests done showed it preferred cold and hot climates (very unusual) but didn't like in between which would be good for us.

Hopefully it doesn't like grey or drizzle either.

I think I might get myself a T shirt made up:

Coronavirus: It's not just the fucking flu

I feel so frustrated at the seemingly contradictory information that is being put out.

If media reports are correct about the UK bus conference:

All attendees at the UK Bus Summit have been emailed warning them that someone at the summit had the killer disease, according to the Financial Times. Attached was a letter from Public Health England (PHE) telling anyone who develops flu-like symptoms to self-isolate at home and call the NHS' 111 helpline

Surely this is bullshit and exactly how Brighton Steve passed it on to 11 others - before he had any symptoms

ONCE YOU HAVE SYMPTOMS IT'S TOO LATE. Ugh I despair.

You could put: Wash your Fucking Hands, on the back?

I honestly think people at PHE can't be that stupid - they are experts, they know the deal with asymptomatic spreading.

I think they have already concluded stopping the spread is not possible as they will never take the level of measures China has and so they are just doing half-measures to mitigate rather than stop.

That's my opinion anyway.

You could put: Wash your Fucking Hands, on the back?

Off to take neighbour's dog for a gambol through the woods now (much better than being a commuter to London which is my usual employed day!)

If anyone wants to crowdfund for me be a stay at home cat parent donations would be gratefully accepted!

Clearly with the Heathrow incident everyone has given up try to contain this. The spread is inevitable.

I really don't think the hospitals will cope. I think we might have to face this with NO healthcare back up. Great if you get it early on, but if you don't then there likely won't be any medical support to help you. This is the bit that shares the sh*t out of me.

Getting pneumonia is bad enough but having to deal with it at home with no medical support is going to be very very tough. I'm wondering how best to prep for this. It's not just bleach, disinfectant and gloves for nursing anyone sick at home, it's medicine and nursing supplies. Plan for an isolation room if you have a room with an ensuite?

Paracetamol and ibuprofen for fevers, inhalers if you have them, soluble vitamins, soup.
Drugs like steriods, anti-virals and antibiotics (for the inevitable secondary bacterial infection that follows viral pneumonia) would be helpful but they are POMs. Problem is I anticipate they will run out of these quickly.
This leads to another complication - you could not have COVID19 but die as a result of it due to lack of daily medication. Let's say they run out of inhalers or steriods etc. Or due to staff shortages, they can't manufacture insulin?

Intestingly a doctor discussed with me the idea of coming off immune suppressant medication to ready myself for the virus. Don't know how widespread this advice is yet?