Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

A confirmed CV patient was at a conference in Westminster with 200 other people last week

Side note: I imagine this is the most exciting thing to have happened at the annual Bus Summit organised by the Transport Times for some time

www.ft.com/content/0d1c0eb0-4ea1-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5

EU health ministers discuss CV (of course we won't be represented )

https://apnews.com/f1ac068177dd1d03975b49e1086c5dbc?utmmedium=APPEurope&utmsource=Twitter&utmmcampaign=SocialFlow

This is basically in line with my opinion from earlier that countries will start to move from containment strategies to mitigation strategies as they basically come to terms with the fact that containment isn't possible without grinding to a halt...

T. Inglesby mentioned in the Tweet is the expert from Johns Hopkins

Interesting Twitter thread...

Part of it is that the Director of the Wellcome Trust, Jeremy Farrar, "already thinks it's pretty much everywhere [I assume this to mean in every country] we just haven't picked it up because it takes time and many infections to turn up and we've only looked at people returning from China".

https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1227588296479563777?s=21

More from that thread in pic below - basically saying more and more experts are of the same view.

Expecting to start seeing serious cases turn up to hospitals in Africa, Europe or North America in the next week or two,

^ If this turns out to be true that's when we'll likely see Govts turning from 'containment' to 'mitigation' (this is my own note, not from Twitter!)

More info from the same Twitter thread...

The Dr overseeing the German patients has four cases that have been in hospital for four weeks now and from a symptom perspective would have been released but they are still testing positive for CV!

What does that actually mean that governments are turning from 'containment' to 'mitigation?

I like to buy my cleaning products in bulk so I went to home bargains this evening and bought enough for the next few months (this is nothing new for me, I find it works out cheaper if I do this)
They had plenty of detol, anti back gel and other bits a pepper might like.

Basically when they decide to do this it means they accept that the virus can't be contained.

They no longer have travel bans, quarantined, lockdowns or anything like that.

They basically accept that the virus will spread across the population and stop trying to contain it and move instead to (a) things that might slow the spread up a little bit or at least not have everyone sick at the exact same time (b) things that bolster the ability of health services to deal with it.

The mitigation would largely be around things like:

• Cancellation of large events and closure of schools to slow down the spread (they won't want everyone to get it at the same time to avoid overwhelming the health services)

• Possible reduction or closure of public transport for the same reason

• Making sure front line health care workers had sufficient PPE that they don't get sick

• Cancelling non-urgent surgeries and appointments so that there are more beds and health care workers available for people with the virus

• Lots of public health comms about social distancing (stay home if ill, don't kiss/shake hands/etc) and hand washing

Hubei numbers for today:

4,823 new cases
116 deaths
Critical cases have risen from 7,084 to 9,638

For the first time the Hubei numbers didn't include an overall death toll number, no-one knows why...

So already at 65,000 cases before the rest of China has reported.

Crazy to think two weeks ago today it was 11,900 and two weeks before that less than 500!

Thanks for the updates mojo.

A lurker and a prepper here. Not sure if anyone’s asked before, but any thoughts on accommodating overseas houseguests at the moment? We have friends coming to stay next week and I’m nervous as they’ll be flying long haul on their way here.

Where are they coming from @Stickerbooksetc?

Unless they are travelling from somewhere known to have community transmissions (China, Singapore etc) I think you'll just have to try not to worry and remain business as usual.

I went to collect my order of masks from screwfix yesterday evening which were bought and paid for. Mysteriously the bag contained everything I'd ordered but the masks..

The guy behind the counter gave me some speech about how he didn't know why everyone was buying them anyway since they won't help. Everyone's an expert. He then said he would have to refund me since they don't have a single mask left in the whole country and no news on when they might be able to get any..

That's interested - I've got some ordered and paid for that I haven't picked up, and have wondered whether they would actually be available when I go to do that later.

Interesting even... Clearly haven't woken up properly yet

Thanks Avocado Owl. Sorry, should have been more specific. They’re flying from NZ via Hong Kong. Won’t leave the airport though.

The China figures are interesting.

51,986 cumulative total figures of which a massive 36,719 are currently hospitalised (73.8% mild, 21.7% serious and 4.6% critical)

77,685 additional people on top of that are undergoing medical observation.

The huge numbers of mild cases 'hospitalised' must include those in makeshift hospitals in stadiums etc surely? So effectively quarantined rather than hospitalised?

Ds Yesterday: clomp, clomp, clomp downstairs.

"Eerrrr"

Stamp, stamp, stamp upstairs...

"Arrrrrrgggg, not again"

= Reaction to me washing the bannisters and door handles with a soapy sponge and him finding out.

Also, for those disinfecting: antibac strips paint, very slowly but makes it bubble and go soft.

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8003341/amp/Coronavirus-Westminster-Chinese-woman-went-bus-conference.html?__twitter_impression=true
Coronavirus in Westminster: Chinese woman went to bus conference attended by 250 people including MPs and chief executives

This one is the mail so no paywall unlike the FT

Well, that's unfortunate!

Also, for those disinfecting: antibac strips paint, very slowly but makes it bubble and go soft.

Yes, I have used those Dettol wipes on my painted bannister in the past and it has made the paint go soft, wrinkly and bubbly, DH will have to strip and repaint it. He said 'I don't know what happened here with this paint', I didn't mention the antibac wipes but stopped using them.