Prepping for a pandemic...3

[wheresmymojo]

Third thread on prepping for a pandemic and following the risk of a NCoV pandemic.

General NCoV Info

The estimated replication rate is R= 2 to 4.8 based on latest expert estimates. This means each infected person spreads the virus to between 2 and 4.8 people. This means it's a fairly contagious virus, probably around the level of swine flu or more.

Around 15-20% of cases are thought to be severe - that is resulting in the need for hospitalisation. Around 3-5% requiring ventilation.

The estimated mortality rate is around 1-2% at the moment. This may change as it is very difficult to estimate mortality.

Children tend to have milder symptoms. Those over 60 with underlying health issues and a history of smoking are more likely to be severe (although not exclusively this type of person).

Spread of NCoV

It is estimated that the average incubation period is 3-5 days but can be as long as 24 days.

It can be spread with no symptoms.

It can be spread via droplet (cough/sneeze), aerosol (breathing same air in very close quarters), bodily fluids, fecal/oral route and formites (via surfaces, up to 28 days in the right circumstances but up to 3-5 days in more typical circumstances).*

Updates*

As this is a novel virus and knowledge is constantly being updated - I will post updates as they become available with links to source.

I am not a medical expert so any opinions or conjecture of my own should be taken with a pinch of salt!

Ofwarren, you can steam surfaces, curtains, furniture, even the shower, toilet, depending on what type of paint you have on the walls that would be ok too! I love the steam cleaner I'm sure you can put dettol in with the water too.

Oh Burpees it's vile isn't it. I get the bus and see that a lot too. I feel so anxious on public transport.

Well I know what I'm going to be doing today moonlight!!! I have never played with the attachments, just used it on the floor.

For anyone using antibac wipes it might be better to save those in case they are needed when out and about and use spray and a cloth instead. Just saying - would be good to save the planet at the same time as being clean and germ free..

ofwarren. I have one. I use it for the tiled floors and the bathroom tiles, sink, toilet, shower and bath. I have an oven cleaner attachment, so I assume you can use it to clean the oven (wouldn't know, never tried ). Depending on your kitchen surfaces, you could probably use there.
You have to be careful about windows and glass as if you heat too suddenly or if there's a steep temperature gradient (I.e. it's cold outside) you risk cracking the glass.

Morning Round Up

1
Another 2 cases in Japan - yet another taxi driver (in addition to yesterday’s) and a woman in Okinawa. That’s significant because it’s where passengers from the Diamond Princess stopped before quarantine.

Note: Several taxi drivers now confirmed and yet PHE are so sure the Uber driver doesn’t need to self isolate?

2
Singapore’s PM warns of potential recession due to COVID
[[https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-economy/singapore-pm-says-recession-possible-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak-straits-times-idUSKBN2080MM?utm_source=reddit.com
www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-singapore-economy/singapore-pm-says-recession-possible-due-to-coronavirus-outbreak-straits-times-idUSKBN2080MM?utm]]source=reddit.comm__
_
_3
Update re: impact on medication supply chains

At the moment nothing to worry about - but if people can’t get back to work in the next 8 weeks then it will start to have a potential impact. A lot of active ingredients are sourced from China
_
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-pharmaceuticals-idUSKBN2072GS?taid=5e4627ed81f80800015297ec&utmm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utmmedium=trueAnthem&utmmsource=twitter&utmsource=reddit.com

4
A previous Commissioner at the US FDA has made a good point:

“The number of new cases in Hubei province reflect infection and spread occurring after China implemented extreme quarantine measures on January 23. We are now about three weeks out from those actions. Containment, and China’s extreme steps, seem to have failed in Hubei province.”
Scott Gottlieb, MD on Twitter

5
Head of CDC in the US
“The containment period is really to give us more time. This virus will become a community virus at some point in time, this year or next year”

Source: CNN

Ofwarren - you are going to have a fabulous day has your steam mop got a triangular bottom ? If so I'm sure you can pull that part off and steam along without it.

On channel 4 tonight:
Coming up on Friday at 7.30pm, we will have a Channel 4 News special programme looking at Britain's ability to tackle the Coronavirus. t.co/MfqoivEHbY

Just saw moonlight's answer. I'd be very wary of adding stuff to the water, heating up could damage the seals and I imagine you'll end up inhaling it more than you would if you used it at normal temp.

I also think we should lay off the uber woman a little since this is pure speculation. We don't actually know what she was told to do. If she's flown in from China how else was she supposed to get to the hospital. She won't have had her own transport and probably had no idea where the hospital even was. Steve from Brighton hasn't had the same sort of criticism and he infected loads of people.

The criticism should be aimed at the inconsistent measures being put in place/implemented by PHE and those on the ground giving the advice.

Several taxi drivers now confirmed and yet PHE are so sure the Uber driver doesn’t need to self isolate?

Its very possible of course that uber lady was wearing a mask and gloves during the uber journey.

Yes moonlight it's a triangular bottom. Ive taken it off when it was new, just to look at it but never really got round to using it as a hand held steamer. Got a box full of attachments for it under the stairs.

What’s supposed to happen is you phone 111 and they tell you to stay put and that paramedics will come out and take you to hospital.

We all know what 111 is like though...she may not have been given the right advice or, as a PP said earlier, had been told to take a private vehicle and she interpreted this as simply meaning 'don't take public transport'.

Apparently 111 say to take a private vehicle or wait for an ambulance.

My apartment has electricity on a metre, buying credit in a shop. It might be an idea if possible if in that situation to put a decent lump sum in for extra in case you’re stuck in for a few weeks. I live alone and can walk to work so not too worried there, however I have one horrible bearded colleague whose fingers are never out of his mouth and then touch everything. It’s disgusting anyway. Hand sanitizer in work, constantly, is something I’m doing too.

Yes, they probably need to be more specific and say don’t get a taxi or Uber to hospital.

More people die from the flu every year.
I get being concerned but you are all feeding each other’s clear anxiety.

I would not use wipes for at home tbh.

taxi driver friend here is saying their firm plan to cease all trips to/near the hospital if/when it takes off here in uk

suspect it will be the same in most places, thus isolating many from hospitals

You do realise that's because flu is already all around the world plantain? Tell me why quarantines are in place and millions of people in lock down and doctors are seeing patients wearing hazmat suits, surgeries and schools are being deep cleaned, people aren't allowed to disembark from ships, ambulances are sent to people's homes, a vaccine is being rushed through etc etc if it's not as severe as flu?

It's a totally new virus that nobody has immunity to and scientists do not know how, if or when it will mutate.
The percentage of people dying is already higher than the flu and there are no drugs that treat this.
Totally fed up of the "flu is worse" narrative.

Someone ring the WHO and tell them plantain said its no worse than flu. They obviously don't know yet 🙄