Prepping for pandemic...

[wheresmymojo]

I was quite blasé about the novel corona virus outbreak but things I've read today have changed my mind.

I'm not usually a prepper but best things to stock up on for a pandemic?

Surgical face masks?
Latex gloves?
Anti bac wipes and hand wash?

Dd is allergic. When researching EpiPens I came across a specialist Dr explains the reasons people do not administer EpiPen when required, delaying. Basically, it is admitting that the allergic reaction is serious and people prefer to do minor things first rather than take the EpiPen.

How people's minds work rather than they are giving EpiPens. There are not enough EpiPens to go round as it is.

@whereismymojo
I would relax. The figures you quoted don't add up unless 50% of the population is infected. That's never ever happened!

The figures are based on roughly 1 in 5 catching it like Swine Flu which is in line with the replication rate of 2.8

Oh crap. Typing on my phone is not making sense.

Basically at the moment the experts are estimating something roughly in line with the Spanish Flu.

So mortality rate of 2-3% - the first link is to an article quoting similar for Spanish Flu

Replication rate of c.2.8 - Spanish Flu was estimated to be somewhere around 2.4-4.3 (see second link)

So all in all - probably not as bad as Spanish Flu which killed c. 20 million deaths, but not a million miles away from it.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/

academic.oup.com/ije/article/36/4/881/667165

Il look at Dr Campbell's videos and that's reassuring to know regarding people collapsing/fitting.

Ive found BBCs news has very limited updates on the situation also itvs news there's not much being said at all either.

There's really nothing wrong with being prepared or looking at the situation in different angles. We arnt hysterical we're sensible.

Hence the draconian measures....do you really think that the following would happen for something you don't need to worry about...?

• China puts whole regions of its country including cities bigger than London on lockdown at massive economic cost?

• The FCO advise all 30,000 ex pats in China to come back if they can?

• The FCO arranges special evacuations and quarantines?

• China allocates $9 billion(!) to trying to contain the virus

I think you must be extremely optimistic about humanity to think they're doing this so we avoid getting the sniffles.

I think that what you are overlooking is modern control measures, medicine, population density variations between Chinese cities and UK cities not to mention access to health care in the uk.
Prepare as you wish but try to stop wishing ill (every pun!) on everyone else.

Okay Poppy. I link to well regarded scientific reports and journals such as The Lancet where possible and well regarded news sources where not.

Anything else I post with a heavy caveated warning.

If that isn't good enough for you I'd be more than happy for you to hide the thread and not look at it again 🤷🏻‍♀️

I'm not overlooking any of those things SciFi

I'm not telling other people whether they should worry or not worry. I'm simply sharing the latest news and scientific findings.

I personally have said a number of times that I won't be worried unless/until there are self sustaining epidemics in at least two countries outside of China.

You are perfectly entitled to look at the same info and decide not to be worried at all.

Seems that the virus has spread on the quarantined cruise ship near Japan. The original two people were taken off before - now a further 10 taken off.

Will start a follow up thread ready for when this is full and post a link back here...

You may be posting "scientific" findings buy it's the analysis and conclusion that I doubt.

Also the money invested by China has to be judged against the cost of economic impact to other cities if they don't take measures. China is very good at large scale responses... it's an aspect of many totalitarian states.

This is worrying:

Late on Tuesday, Japan confirmed 10 cases of coronavirus on a cruise ship quarantined in the Japanese port city of Yokohama.

Some 3,700 passengers and crew were screened after a passenger from Hong Kong who sailed on the vessel last month tested positive.

Thankyou for carrying the thread on once this is full!

I'm just downloading the twitter app so I can follow the news more closely.
Plus want to read the comments regarding the cruise ship.

Just watched Dr Campbell's video explaining the virus, he is such a good teacher. Someone commented on the video "this seems like it was engineered as a bio-weapon" and Doc replied "I see what you mean, it does look weird when you look at it objectively"
I find all these "conspiracies" very interesting because who actually knows? Well all I know is I've got quite a bit of prepping to do and thankful we have some time to sort it.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This link is good and updates very regularly. The number of official cases in critical condition is very high as a proportion of those infected.

New thread

Prepping for a pandemic 2 www.mumsnet.com/Talk/preppers/3814607-prepping-for-a-pandemic-2

Scifi I'm not asking anyone to follow any of my own musings. No-one on the thread is under any impression that I'm anything other than an average Mumsnetter musing over the latest updates 'out loud'.

I've never presented as an expert. You're free (as is everyone on the thread) to draw different conclusions from the same evidence.

@HasaDigaEebowai

Thanks! Will bookmark that one as it's much easier to read on a phone than the Johns Hopkins version

Poppy,
I am stockpiling food and cleaning products. If all good then they will get used, I’ve not wasted money, if it goes bad then we can stay at home for a month and not have to join other people queuing with people spreading the virus and desperate for food. We will be helping by not spreading it and not needing to buy for that is scarce, not seeing how that is a bad thing?

HumansAreConsumable sorry, I fell asleep after my last message! You can sign up here:

www.form.gov.sg/#!/5d15b58f9fbcc50018bc66f2

Are you in Singapore too?

I wonder if the foreign exchange student is still coming from China?

@wheresmymojo

🌷personally I’m grateful for your research & your ‘out loud musings’ 😇

People are incredibly rude, simply Pooh Pooh yhe concept of prepping on the prepping board. Done one is forcing them to thread the thread let alone actually prep.

You have gone to let trouble of linking information & summarising your thoughts.

You have been very patient & polite with with people who have been incredibly rude.

Please don’t let them put you off sharing with the rest of us. 🌷