Prepping for pandemic...

[wheresmymojo]

I was quite blasé about the novel corona virus outbreak but things I've read today have changed my mind.

I'm not usually a prepper but best things to stock up on for a pandemic?

Surgical face masks?
Latex gloves?
Anti bac wipes and hand wash?

@Poppyfieldsummerdays that’s okay, when we’re all fine at home with supplies and you’re in a huge queue with sick people you can have my hospital bed.

Failure to plan, plan to fail

20,647 confirmed reasons. Which in about 5 days time will be 41,000.

I do wonder sometimes if people actually read Prepper threads before posting twattishly.

Anyone would have thought we’re hoarding AR-15s, running around with our tin foil hats on screaming “THE END IS NIGH!!!”

It will increase a bit more before tonight is out as I think that includes the Hubei cases for today but it's usually another 90 mins before the rest of mainland China declares (no idea why)

@Dyrne you mean you’re not? Shit them I’m doing it wrong!!!

@Dyrne

I have a strong feeling they definitely don't read the thread because otherwise they'd see that most of what is posted is linked to sources and that some of us are reading all the scientific papers published, etc.

I think it just makes them feel better to be in denial about the risk 🤷🏻‍♀️

They'd also see that many of us have said - we are not panicking and there is no reason to be really concerned until there are sustained local epidemics in a couple of other countries.

We're just saying there is a reasonable risk (as are all the experts) and preparing for the possibility like sensible and responsible adults.

MynameisJune a hat is a shameful misuse of tin foil - much better to use it for a Faraday cage and a Sun oven when the SHTF

Wrong. Me and the rest of the walking dead need your brains to live not all your chocolate.

This is just a ploy to get you to buy more chocolate.

Some of you are gullible. It is a mild cold. If it’s more than that I will

I keep trying to stockpile chocolate but some fucker keeps eating it all.

(It’s me. I’m the fucker).

@Kakfor shared this last week. I've just gone back to find it to see if the projections still seemed accurate and the actual figures don't seem as high as anticipated. Do you think that's likely down to misreporting (or some not having been tested at all)? Or do you think it has slowed due to the quarantine measures put in place?

I have stockpiled chocolate, but not a single face mask or sanitising gel.

Which bit of the information posted do you not believe in Poppy?

It's a simple question...

One of the first rules people share on prepping boards is 'don't buy anything you wouldn't normally buy and eat anyway'.

I prepped for No Deal Brexit. It didn't happen. I saved money on my weekly shopping for several weeks as I used up my store.

Same here - I will store up some goods. If they're not needed, I will save on my weekly shops in the future.

Why is it any bother to you?

Just to add that I'm not a prepper but I've been following this thread as it seems to be a more balanced view of what's actually happening.

Do you all realise that getting corona virus is basically a bad cold for most people! A couple of weeks feeling grotty and maybe some ventalin.

I don't believe the pace has slowed yet - Hubei's reported numbers are the highest yet in terms of new cases confirmed in one day (should see them slow down soon though).

I think when the virus first started it was practically doubling every day and so people extrapolated that trend on Twitter but epidemiologists generally had models which didn't assume it would continue to double every day (they - experts in the field - suggest it will double every 6.4 days on average). From memory that is from The Lancet.

@SciFiRules

Yes. Have you read the whole thread?

We follow things very closely so we are aware that c.75-80% get milder symptoms (thought to feel closer to the flu than a cold though).

20-25% require hospitalisation.

It's difficult to estimate mortality rate until after an epidemic has finished but there is a 2-3% estimated mortality rate.

That is 20-30 x the seasonal flu (@ 0.1%).

However with the high replication rates (estimates R=2.8) a local epidemic in the UK would kill c. 500,000.

This is why the authorities are so concerned. Hence why the measures they are taking are different to a cold or the flu.

Next question?

(I could link to the sources for all of this but it's already linked further up in the thread if you want them)

@Poppyfieldsummerdays I am not a natural prepper but years ago got caught out during the fuel strike when we lived rurally and the DC were small. Ever since then I've had enough food to get us through a week or so.

In the run up to Brexit I ensured we had additional supplies in case of a no deal.

I am now ensuring we have enough to last us should we have to self isolate. I doubt it will happen but there's no harm in preparing ourselves. If there's no issue and it's all a storm in a tea cup then we can eat the food.

I am suspicious about the fact that the Chinese have quarantined so many people and basically damaged their economy. Why would they do that if its "just a cold"?

Stop worrying... it's bad for your health!

BlackeyedSusan could I ask what you meant about epi pen use? Was you talking generally or they giving patients epi pens if they can't breathe?

Better the Lancet than the beeb.

People were the same on the Brexit stash threads. Everytime a stash was added to a Brexit fairy died...

Wow, that would be 6.25x more British people than who died in ww2 based on those calculations

The 2% rate iof mortality is a worry.
We vaccinate against seasonal flu to protect from a 0.1% death

Oh, an I should add, we are all fit and healthy so even if it does spread and we catch it, I'm hoping we wouldn't get serious symptoms. But if it does spread then there is a possibility that people will.be asked to self isolate whilst experiencing the milder form of the virush.

@SciFiRules

I can't talk for everyone on the thread but I'm not worrying 🤷🏻‍♀️

I'd be worried if I was sticking my head in the sand.

But I'm not so all is well.

Worst case scenario for people prepared is that we get a local epidemic but we're okay as we've made sure we have plenty of nice food in and can chill out at home watching Netflix while other people scrap over the last loaf or catch it and can't get flu meds because everyone is panic buying

Best case scenario there is no local epidemic and I get cheaper weekly shops for a month or so after this has all blown over.

That's not worrying...