Prepping for pandemic...

[wheresmymojo]

I was quite blasé about the novel corona virus outbreak but things I've read today have changed my mind.

I'm not usually a prepper but best things to stock up on for a pandemic?

Surgical face masks?
Latex gloves?
Anti bac wipes and hand wash?

Because it unnerves people apparently.

That reminds me, I must update the bug out bags. Got a bit lazy.

Good point about anti- bac!

I think some studies have shown that with correct use and disposal 'proper' face masks can help to reduce risk (not remove risk).

I'll see if I can dig the study out.

It has to be the face masks that have:

• a waterproof lining on the outside (usually looks blue in colour)

• absorbent white side next to the face

• a proper elastic band around the area over the bridge of the nose

• has to be disposed of by not touching the mask itself (just the over ear loops) and then thorough hand washing afterwards

Someone posted a thread on Friday Eve about the virus and I jumped in straight away dismissing it as media hysteria. It got me thinking, however. I decided that it would do absolutely no harm to get some masks in, and should this prove to be a hysterical fuss over nothing, then so be it. I've also made sure we have enough Calpol and paracetamol to tide us over any viral symptoms.

I'd hate to be in a situation where I could have made some minor preparations to protect but hadn't because I felt like an idiot.

*to protect my family

From a public health scientist:

Let’s pretend the 3.8 replication rate estimate is too high (there’s unpublished estimates of 2.5). even if this virus’s R0=2.5, that’s still 2x higher than seasonal flu’s 1.28 (ref above), and higher than 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic of 1.80 that killed millions. So 2.5 is still super bad folks

@GorkyMcPorky

That's roughly where I am. I dismissed it as hyperbole and nothing to worry about but having done further research I'm more concerned.

Absolutely not suggesting it's definitely going to come here and be a problem but on initial appearance it's more concerning than SARS, swine flu and H1N1 (mortality is much worse in the latter but no H2H spread as yet).

It's apparently reasonably rare to have a novel virus that is:

• Spread by H2H contact
• Can be asymptomatic but still be a spreader
• Transmitted not just by a small number of superspreaders (like SARS) but general spread
• With a replication rate as high as the current 2.6 estimate
• With a incubation period as long as up to 14 days

The main unknown stopping utter panic is now mortality rate. So far it's reasonably low @ 4% ish but this is expected to rise.

The other thing is that scientists and public health are very wary of novel viruses because once they've jumped to humans they can mutate and so it's possible for them to mutate to become more dangerous (with no cure, treatment or vaccs).

So I think there's enough valid info out there to at least consider a risk.

We're well overdue a killer pandemic from a historical perspective.

Does anyone understand how the US are able to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan when there's a lockdown?

Lots of Asian people live in the flats where I live. Several have been sporting quite fancy face masks, like surgical ones that have been covered in tweed.

Does anyone understand how the US are able to evacuate their citizens from Wuhan when there's a lockdown?

You need special permission to leave so presumably the relevant officials granted it.

Yes, the only relatively reassuring thing about this so far is the death rate being lowish. For H5N1 (bird flu), for which thank god human to human transmission never really took off, it was much worse. But even with a lowish death rate with good medical care, the risk if too many people get it is having more cases than hospital beds, more cases than well hospital staff who can treat people.

Here's hoping it's not too awful before a vaccine is developed, but if it can be spread before people are ill, then surely there's a good chance there's already internal spread in quite a few countries other than China.

Prepping to be able to stay at home for a bit makes sense, as does having things like basic meds. Don't forget dioralyte or similar, as diarrhoea is a symptom of this virus and dehydration is dangerous.

Does anyone know what grade of face mask you need to filter/protect against viruses? The paper surgical ones are not great, and I’m guessing DIY ones for decorating/dust still let viruses through. Just wondering if anyone knows a brand or good thing/grading system to look for. Figured would rather have one in an emergency kit and never need it than not.

It's worrying me and I don't usually think about these things. I have no idea what to get in but I'm going to do an online shop tomorrow and stock up.

@helpagirloutplease , just focus on what you like to eat and consider what your budget and storage will allow. Better to work in slow steps rather than a big expensive swoop.

Not really re masks. I had read n95 but haven't found anything. Most are from China of course!

Several have been sporting quite fancy face masks, like surgical ones that have been covered in tweed

Ooh where does one get these? If we're gonna die we might as well look good

@FurnitureAndBackgammon, China! Or at least that's pretty much all I could see on eBay.

I was wondering about these cities on lockdown and if they still have shops open and deliveries and people going to work?

• @FurnitureAndBackgammon, China! Or at least that's pretty much all I could see on eBay.*

In that case, I'll pass

Thanks to Brexit, I have enough food in. I am a bit twitchy though. Kids have to go to school or there is trouble, this is the most likely place for infections to spread as kids are not very hygienic.

On the plus side, the government is tracing people from direct flights and lots of people are proving negative.

The government are expecting the virus to be here this week.

From eye-witness reports, shops were fairly empty of food, people were expected to have stocked up for New Year. Cars have now been banned from cities.

Radio four news has had a few interviews with people living/visiting.

Thanks for the links @wheresmymojo really interesting.

I have decided to go shopping early this week.

I don't usually worry about things like this but this one honestly has the potential to be a big pandemic.

As blackeye says thankfully the mortality rate is fairly low so far (about 3%) and hopefully it doesn't mutate to become any worse than that.

That being said with the high replication rate if it came here you'd expect a lot of people to have it.

There's no treatment so may as well stock up on normal home flu care and food. I have zero stocks in at the moment and a bit short on money so will start adding a few extra tins of things I use anyway.

I've ordered some face masks just in case (it's not like they go off and I can use them as DIY dust masks if not needed).

I've also been wondering about work in Wuhan...I believe they just aren't working because things have closed down. No idea what that means for pay (either here or in China).

Would people get paid if they had to stay at home for a pandemic containment here? Not necessarily expecting it but interesting to wonder...?

I watched Contagion (film) last night
It's basically the same storyline except that the mortality rate is higher...

So I've been prepping as though we were going to get flu and couldn't go out/do anything for a couple of weeks. I have most of of what we need in anyway.

I did rapidly edge away from the lady on her phone standing in front of cold remedies telling the person at the other end of the phone she felt shocking. I didn't fancy her cold/bug! If only she had had a bit of stock in!

It struck me how the shortage in ibuprofen is likely to suddenly get a lot worse.

In terms of food, I asked dh to pick up some more tinned soups - you don't feel like cooking or eating when you're poorly. He bought home two tins. doh. I'll get some read for the freezer too, I'm not sure bread making would be high on the agenda if things went tits up.

I have my Brexit supplies so we can last a fair while without leaving the house if we had to. The BBC was interviewing a British couple in Wuhan this morning who haven't left their house for a week and said they have about 5 days worth of food left.

Im not worrying about it but Im on alert in case things change.

they have about 5 days worth of food left.

I wonder if that is having proper meals or rationing right down to almost starvation levels? We overeat in this country don't we? 3 meals a day could be cut right down to 1 or even 1/2 if needed or probably less than that if totally desperate.