Prepping for pandemic...

[wheresmymojo]

I was quite blasé about the novel corona virus outbreak but things I've read today have changed my mind.

I'm not usually a prepper but best things to stock up on for a pandemic?

Surgical face masks?
Latex gloves?
Anti bac wipes and hand wash?

Id feel a bit more at ease if we were suspending flights. I think it's only British Airways that are so far?

For those with worried kids this cbbc video is quite good- www.bbc.co.uk/newsround/51342366

I'm not sure I share their optimism but hey ho, I won't be letting my children in on that.

Is Milton hand gel the best one to buy then?

Milton are the only ones (at the moment) claiming to kill viruses. I think I read that Boots have their own brand version.

What with Event 101 and the grab bag news scenario, it feels like the media has been prepping us for this for a while.

[puts on tin foil hat]

I don't understand the grab bag thing, where are we supposed to be going with our grab bags?

So if the government are saying 30,000 Brits should come back to Britain, how is that going to be managed quarantine wise?

I don't think or see that it will be, they cannot even trace the ones who came back with the 2 from York!!!!!!

Grab bags are pointless. We would be stopping at home in the case of pandemic

One of my colleagues arrived back to the UK at the weekend from CNY in Shanghai and my cousin comes back from a holiday there tomorrow. They are going into quarantine, just back and to work.

Others friends in Shanghai and Beijing are staying there as that is their home. They have no reason to come back to the UK.

I live in Singapore and we are of course on high alert, although the government has been measured in its tone regards community spread. I’ve not been so worried so far, and people are being fastidious about hand washing, wearing masks (well, if you got your hands on any before they sold out) and staying away from public places if at all sick.

But this today has worried me. I am signed up to the government WhatsApp alerts and this came through at 6.30pm (copied and pasted.) What concerns me is the localised/human to human transmission, which so far the govt has been reassuring us that there is no evidence of. It seems that may have changed...

[Sent by Gov.sg – 4 Feb]

Update on 2019-nCoV cases
As of 2pm on 4 Feb, there are 6 new confirmed cases. These include 3 local transmission cases that can be traced to prolonged contact with recent travellers from Mainland China.

Confirmed cases: 24
Recovered: 1

Overview
Case 19: 28 year old female Singapore resident, works at a complementary health products shop that primarily serves Chinese tourists

Case 20: 48 year old female Singapore resident, works at the same shop

Case 21: 44 year old female Indonesian national, foreign domestic worker of Case 19

Cases 22 and 23: Singaporeans evacuated from Wuhan on 30 Jan

Case 24: 32 year old female Singapore resident, tourist guide who brought tour groups to Case 19’s shop

Though 4 of these cases constitute a local transmission cluster, there is as yet no evidence of widespread sustained community transmission in Singapore.

For more info:

• www.moh.gov.sg (MOH website)
• go.gov.sg/ncovcases (Gov.sg article)

The Lancet have publications on this coronavirus outbreak freely available at
www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
. The paper published on 31st January shows that human to human transmission was occurring last week.

I quote :

Discussion
During the period of an epidemic when human-to-human transmission is established and reported case numbers are rising exponentially, nowcasting and forecasting are of crucial importance for public health planning and control domestically and internationally. 39, 40 In this study, we have estimated the outbreak size of 2019-nCoV thus far in Wuhan and the probable extent of disease spread to other cities domestically. Our findings suggest that independent self-sustaining human-to-human spread is already present in multiple major Chinese cities, many of which are global transport hubs with huge numbers of both inbound and outbound passengers (eg, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen).
Therefore, in the absence of substantial public health interventions that are immediately applied, further international seeding and subsequent local establishment of epidemics might become inevitable. On the present trajectory, 2019-nCoV could be about to become a global epidemic in the absence of mitigation. Nevertheless, it might still be possible to secure containment of the spread of infection such that initial imported seeding cases or even early local transmission does not lead to a large epidemic in locations outside Wuhan. To possibly succeed, substantial, even draconian measures that limit population mobility should be seriously and immediately considered in affected areas, as should strategies to drastically reduce within-population contact rates through cancellation of mass gatherings, school closures, and instituting work-from-home arrangements, for example. Precisely what and how much should be done is highly contextually specific and there is no one-size-fits-all set of prescriptive interventions that would be appropriate across all settings. Should containment fail and local transmission is established, mitigation measures according to plans that had been drawn up and executed during previous major outbreaks, such as those of SARS, MERS, or pandemic influenza, could serve as useful reference templates.
The overriding epidemiological priority to inform public health control would be to compile and release a line list of suspected, possible, probable, and confirmed cases and close contacts that is updated daily and linked to clinical outcomes and laboratory test results. A robust line list is essential for the generation of accurate and precise epidemiological parameters as inputs into transmission models to inform situational awareness and optimising the responses to the epidemic.41 Additionally, given the extent of spread and level of public concern it has already generated, the clinical spectrum and severity profile of 2019-nCoV infections needs rapid ascertainment by unbiased and reliable methods in unselected samples of cases, especially those with mild or subclinical presentations.

But this today has worried me. I am signed up to the government WhatsApp alerts and this came through at 6.30pm (copied and pasted.) What concerns me is the localised/human to human transmission, which so far the govt has been reassuring us that there is no evidence of. It seems that may have changed...

How do I sign up for these alerts?

Grab bags are for bug out situations. This is a bug in situation and can be prepped for in one trip to Sainsbury's. Plus a £25 neos WiFi camera so you can see who's at the front door and tell them what to do.
It doesn't become a bug out situation until power supplies fail but for an experienced prepper even that won't force them out. They will have alternative heat/cooking sources and wind-up radio.
Dettol claims some efficacy against coronavirus but of course everything is untested against the novel strain. I did note that our local Boots is sold out of anything of the Milton brand.

This guy is worth following on YouTube: all fact based from a British doctor with 40 years experience.

https://www.youtube.com/user/Campbellteaching

He confirms earlier thoughts about why the death rate will be lower outside China - those 25-30% of patients that develop pneumonia require oxygen. Most hospitals are only able to provide oxygen to c. 200 people at any one time (and this is talking decent Western style hospitals).

So in any pandemic where there are considerably higher needs for oxygen at the same time you would see higher death rates because there simply isn't enough oxygen / equipment to treat them all in parallel.

Whereas with those in other countries - there is a max of a couple of dozen cases and presumably this means all of them get the standard of treatment they need. It wouldn't necessarily be the case if we started to see widespread H2H transmission in those same countries.

I think they need to shut down schools at the first sign that it is here.will they? Doubt it.

Interesting in Saturday’s Times.

AvocadoOwl that CBBC video is bloody brilliant - it’s the perfect message and very appropriate for the current situation; and very age appropriate - “Please don’t be scared about what’s happening; but hey, remember to wash your hands and use a tissue!” Perfect for children that are worriers and may fixate (the gentle reminder that obsessive hand washing isn’t needed); and even includes a fun little “secret handshake” (that also stops snotty hands passing viruses).

If the situation changes I hope they’ll do another video as I think they’ll communicate it well. As you said, as adults we know to be a bit more cautious and concerned, but no need to panic children at this stage.

wheresmymojo that’s a really good point about O2 availability. Makes perfect sense when you think about it and I have heard that about Oxygen capacity before now that I’m reminded of it.

Agree with those saying that this is a bug in situation; however I still have my grab bag - Coronavirus doesn’t mean house fires or gas leaks patiently wait their turn! www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/hampshire-news/evacuated-aldershot-residents-describe-waking-17685585.amp

Interesting video clip

twitter.com/howroute/status/1224746507674345472?s=21

I've seen a report that a London woman in her 20's recently returned from mainland China has suspected NCoV but haven't seen an official report of it so could be nonsense...

More information from the CDC about the fact that just because someone has a negative test result doesn't actually mean they don't have the virus.

We've seen a few cases in China where they tested negative, then a couple of days later tested positive and the CDC explains this here.

Hopefully the UK DoH has still asked all those with negative test results to self quarantine...

While the NHS might be stokpiling, it think it is more likely that they are, as I mentioned earlier on this thread (or possibly another one) asking people who attend a and e with symptoms to self isolate at home until the test results come in (two to three days) and giving them a mask. This is what they are doing at DHs hospital. Also worth noting that there are plans in place for the transport of people who are showing symptoms. some transport contractors have refused to take patients with symptoms unless they have tested negative, which I think is good management by those companies to protect their staff.

I’m not a prepper or concerned about this virus but for those who are, what do you think the UK government should be doing?