Is it possible that Mandelson might bring Starmer down?

[CurlewKate]

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Total for year end March 23 was 944,000, 700k for year end Dec 24, around 240k arrived between Dec 24 and July 24... close enough to 1m then....

The checks are cursory, as well you know.

Net migration has fallen to around 220k due to policies enacted by Labour.... i doubt very much you'd give Reeves the same leeway and say she inherited an awful fiscal position would you? You'd place all the blame at her feet....

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DUjdP7Gj_R2/?utm_source=ig_web_button_share_sheet

You posted;
Under [ ] Labour, net migration has successfully fallen to around 220k, in the last year of Sunak, it was approx 1,000,000.....

Net migration during Sunak's last year in office (YE June 2024) was 649,000.

The checks are cursory, as well you know

I don't know that.

Net migration has fallen to around 220k due to policies enacted by Labour...

BBC 27 Nov 2025
Net migration to the UK dropped sharply to 204,000 in the year to June [2025]
... 'largely due to reforms when the Tories were last in government'

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn0g0xnr7klt

I agree that the Conservatives were correcting their own homework and should have done better the first time around.

Migration Observatory Oxford 18 Dec 2025

In early 2024, the previous Conservative government introduced a suite of policies designed to restrict immigration via several regular routes. They included higher salary thresholds for work and family migrants and restrictions on the dependants of newly arriving students and care workers. In May 2025, the Labour government announced a range of further restrictions on visas, including the closure of the care worker route to new overseas recruitment.

Labour's immigration policies would barely have had time to take effect.

That's a misleading use of data.

Yes UK net migration dropped sharply from a record 944,000 in the year ending March 2023 to an estimated 204,000 in the year ending June 2025, but largely due to policies introduced by the previous Conservative Government.

This 69%–78% decline was largely driven by reduced immigration (specifically work/study visas) and higher emigration.

Peak (2023): Net migration reached a record high of 944,000 in the 12 months to March 2023
Mid-2024: Net migration was estimated at 649,000.
June 2025: Net migration fell to 204,000, representing a 69% year-on-year decrease from 2024.

The main reasons for this decrease was :
A sharp decline in visa applications—specifically, health and care visas fell by 89% from their 2023 peak, and student dependant visas fell by 57% following restrictions brought in by the Conservatives in 2024.

Increased emigration of international students and others who arrived during the 2021-23 peak, after restrictions brought in by the Conservatives.

Since 2022, EU net migration has been negative, with 70,000 more EU citizens leaving than arriving in the year ending June 2025, due to Brexit.

There is a net emigration of British citizens, with an estimated 109,000 more leaving than returning in the year ending June 2025.

The decline is expected to continue due to policy changes introduced in 2024 by the Conservative government and continued by the Labour government.

Fab!

I do want Labour to stay in power and stay strong. I think only a center- socialist party can possibly save us from the hole we are in. But Starmer staying is a huge mistake, in my opinion. He knew enough about Mandelson not to employ him on anything. Starmer cannot possibly be that stupid..... If, or when, the investigations into Mandelson and others throw any further rubbish on Starmer's circle, the Labour party will be done and dusted. And UK will be left without either a feasible Tory or Labour parties to vote for. So, the only real options will be Liberal Democrats, the Green Party, some independants and Reform! It does suit me. I think the Lib Dems have their act together. And so do the Green Party.
But Starmer should resign out of his own shame, now, before he does to the Labour party what Boris and successors did to the Tories.

No it isn't, i stated net migration was 944k and you concur! contradicting the pp.

On the reasons for the fall in net migration.

I look at it this way, Labour are blamed for everything bad, no black hole, no need to increase taxes, unemployment nothing to do with AI, inflation increases nothing to do with world commodity pricing... even the drops in interest rates are apparently all to do with a weak economy.... Its ALL Labours fault, as they are IN Government.

Well, if thats true (its not) then anything good that happens is also down to them, nothing to do with previous Govt policies.

Brexit? the worst foreign policy decision ever made, a Putin desire, its wrecked our relations with Europe, causing deep and lasting economic damage... caused huge immigration from cultures often incompatible with the majority in the UK, ALL done by the Tories and fully backed by the guy you ve said would make the UKs best PM - Richi Sunak.

Thats not true. Plenty of good things can be clearly attributed to the last government and plenty of new actions that have caused disaster like the suicide of farmers can be 100% blamed on tbis government.

Such as?

Suicides in Farming continued to fall from highs in the 80s until 2016/16 (Brexit) and have climbed ever since, they are no higher now than in 2023/24.

Farming has a long term average some 3.5x higher than the general population.

103 people connected to Agriculture took their own lives in 2022.

I think its pretty awful to blame any Govt for this, Suicide and MH are extremely complex, rarely just one cause.

What are those plenty of good things? Can you give us some examples?

There are several reports if you have a look. Some reported in the Telegraph. Its unfortunate that it happened before Rachel Reeves raised the cut off amount before which IHT would be due. The farmers died due to a bad policy that got changed anyway. Tragic and should not be dismissed.

Starmer ‘aware farmers are considering suicide over IHT raid’

www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/12/15/keir-starmer-liaison-committee-mps-immigration-defence/

We'll be waiting a long time but i expect the pp to go on about renewables but at the same time blaming Labour for high energy costs 😂

Oh you mean the Telegraph that attributes the heavy rainfall to Reeves? that Telegraph!

There is zero stats to back up your claim, none whatsoever, disgraceful, i expected better, though i don't know why :(

In fact the biggest increase in Farm suicides was between 2021 and 2023.... who was in Govt then?

I do wish you would refer to the person you are replying to, unless you dont want a response?

The ones Alexandra listed re the fall in migration due to Conservative policy

Raising standards in schools so we have whizzed up the world rankings for english and maths.

Actually getting some form of Brexit done which meant we had the covid vaccine rollout which was the fastest in the world.

The economy and employment being in better shape than under RR. Unbelievable that we say that but its true.

They did plenty of bad things. But I was referring to Alexandra's point about taking credit or not taking credit for past governments mistakes and failures rather than listing things in general.

Its perfectly logical. I bet hundreds of farmers thought the same. I know many who did.

If you tell farmers that have family farms for generations and their family after them has this as their only source of income that you are going to slap a great big tax on them and give a date in which it becomes Law. And which if you die before that date you have no tax and your family are ok and if you die after that date the family farm needs to be broken up or sold potentially then if you are old you might take a view on when you wanted to die. And thats the situation RR put farmers in. And the policy was changed. Because it was bad policy.

The economy and employment being in better shape than under RR. Unbelievable that we say that but its true

Nope, uk growth has been higher in the last 18months than in the previous 18months before the GE, under Sunak.... he gave the UK a recession in the last 6 months of 2023, so the growth we had in early 2024 - Q2 - was as a result of a bounce back, not policy.
Reeves has had no recession and hence higher but steadier growth.

Unemployment? as we can see with Welfare, this was kept lower due to the use of sickness benefits.

On Maths and English, we went from 11th to 8th, hardly "whizzed up the tables" is it...

err what sort of logic is that?

The stats don't back it up, not one iota.... saw biggest hike from 2021 to 2023...

You might as well say "People kill themselves to get an insurance pay out for their family"

Anyway, you re clearly very invested in proving the impossible, so on this, i'll leave you too it, shameful.

Yes shes doing a great job and that is reflected in her and the government's polling levels. Unemployment is rising due to RRs ENI changes and the working rights legislation. Especially in young people. Entirely predictably.

Same as the VAT on schools. 100 plus schools closed since that tax came into law with no new teachers...in fact a reduction in new teachers. Presumably RR thought that there were far too many school places that tax payers didnt have to fund so wanted a cull. Thats where being ideological gets you. Costs the taxpayer more not less.

What do you mean, what sort of logic is that?

Die before April this year. Pass on your family farm tax free so it can continue.

Die after April, hefty tax on your farm (which has slightly improved now shes raised the threshold and allowed it to be transferable between spouses).

The date to look at will be between the initial announcement in the Budget and the change in policy which was January this year I think.

The long term average for private school closures is 85 per year, in 2023, 77 closed between Jan and October, suggesting the total would be around 100.

I'd remind you that in 2023, the GE date hadn't even been called.

Its much like your other figures isn't? You seek to blame Labour but cannot bring yourself to blame the Tories, when the exact same thing happens under their watch i.e unemployment at 8%, substantially higher than the current 5% 0.6% higher than when they took over.....

Vat on school fees appears to some thing of a open wound for Tory supporters, i guess having to part with a little extra money hurts them....

There have been over 100 school closures since the policy was brought on of schools that were otherwise viable. So government action has directly led to their closure. Meaning an increase in the amount taxpayers need to shell out for these pupils schooling. People who are unable to "part with a little extra money" have to remove their child mid year, often during an exam year. It was a vindictive policy that was vindictive timed. And has led to no extra money but has cost money. Plus no new teachers.

Labour could solve many of their problems by butting out of the lives of people as much as possible. Just do defence, health, education (in so far as its provided by the state) and local government well and stop interfering in unnecessary things. Stop picking fights with large groups such as farmers, school children, publicans, pensioners, small business owners, larger businesses, young people, people who live in the countryside, people who live here part time, Jews, people who are worried about immigration, landlords...etc

Well, time hasn't been kind to your post has it. There were 4 observations in the deleted post which was about how people are inevitably judged by the friends they keep and the enemies they make, none of which were slurs but my opinions, supported by publically verifiable information. Two of them have subsequently been conceded in the House of Commons over the last few days by Starmer anyway, one acknowledged in the last couple of months and all, including the last, widely reported inside and outside the UK.

One has to wonder why people, including MN itself, don't like those associations being called out. To have one Lord in your network associated with a paedophile is unfortunate, to have 2 if you go back further is concerning, to create a 3rd is inevitably going to raise comment!!

I can only assume you don't read the posts you re replying too?

What about the 85 schools that have been closing down each and every year for the last decade or so?

So at worst Labours policy closed 15 schools but as approx 100 closed down in 2023, we don't even know that!

Err it was the Tories that went after people who live here part time..... & more Pubs closed down under the Tories than under Labour pro rata....

...though facts seem to pass you by...

Had you stuck to proven facts like Mandelson or Doyle, then fair enough but like most right wingers on here, you cannot stick to facts and posted a load of nasty falsehoods, i reported and MN agreed.

The rules of MN are clear.

I think you chose to ignore the obvious human reaction and cost of government tax policy. Labour play with people's lives. For ideological reasons.

The trouble is they have cast their net awfully wide.You can argue that in the round school children and young people and farmers and publicans and landlords and countryside dwellers and pensioners and small business owners shouldnt blame Labour. They were stuffed anyway. But all these groups know who is to blame. And they amount to a large swathe of the electorate.

Which is why Keir Starmer is the most unpopular PM of all time. And continuing down that popularity chart. Interested to see the polls in light of the Mandelson saga and now Matthew Doyle! Cor blimey.