Worried about Reform Electoral Victory

[RolandH]

Hello everyone,

I'm worried about a possible Reform electoral victory. I do disagree with alot of their policies, but the main thing which concerns me is, if they get in, I have doubts about whether they will preserve the integrity of our electoral system.

Looking at far right governments around the world just now, many of them seem to be happy to attempt to undermine the electoral process. Trump tried to after he lost to Biden, and I doubt that the next election in the US will be free and fair, as the republicans will be trying to replace the electoral officials with their people. In Hungary, the free press has been repressed. Things can obviously get worse than this.

I would like to hear if other people are worried about this, for people who are thinking about voting Reform or have done have thought about it, and also how people who are committed Reform voters would respond to this. Will you be ready to fight against this party if it looks like they are taking the country in an anti-democratic direction?

You are right to be worried; indeed, you should be terrified (as should everybody else with a working moral compass).

Quite aside from the fact that they are led by a workshy grifter, one of the chief architects of Brexit, and a pathological liar who has loudly and repeatedly praised Trump and Putin, even the most superficial of research into the past comments, promises, and statements of Farage and his party present a fairly clear picture that if they were ever to run our parliament we could expect any amount of the following:

-Scrapping Green initiatives
-Drilling in the North Sea
-Ditching Net Zero Policy
-Scrapping Renewable energy subsidies
-A ban transgender ideology
-Change Hate Crime legislation (removing protection for LGBTQ and minorities)
-An abandonment of the Windsor Framework ( this is the Northern Ireland agreement which allows NI to trade with Ireland and is designed to protect the NI / Eire trade and border Independence from the Horizon EU grants for innovation program)
-Changes to child benefit that encourage women not to work and become stay at home mums
-Privatisation of the NHS
-A rejection of the ECHR
-Leaving the World Health Organization
-Scrapping the Equalities act

But let's be really clear here. They will take this country, already broken and beleaguered, even further back.

In an almost identical playbook to the disastrous Brexit referendum that caused colossal national self-harm, we are seeing the exact same rhetoric being peddled out again. And many people are falling for it yet again.

Reform are not going to make things better for anyone other than themselves, and certainly not for you or me.
They are not going to solve your individual problems. They are not even going to address them.
They are not going to Make Britain Great Again.
You are being sold dangerous lies. Again.

You only have to look at Trump and Trumpism in the US right now to see where the UK would be under Farage and Reform.

Now, I understand that people want change, that people are desperate, but voting for fascist ideologues based on the illusory idea your life will somehow be improved is not the solution.

I think that the likelihood of them being able to win a majority in the HoC by the time the next election rolls around is vanishingly small. From 5 MPs to 326+ in four years? Dream on, Nigel you absolute fucking twat

I suppose there is a slight possibility that they could end up being the junior partner in a wobbly coalition. And look what that did for the LibDems in 2010.

I don't underestimate the ability of the Great British Public (for which read, English) to be taken in by a grifter and make some truly appalling political decisions. But a) we aren't the US and many of the issues that got Trump elected (guns / abortion / religion) simply don't have the same impact on the average voter over here. And b) Reform are, at heart, a bunch of no-mark chancers and I predict that their incompetence will be crystal clear to everyone but the most wilfully stupid by the end of...this year.

Running a government - or indeed, a town council - is VERY different to running a single-issue party based around a personality cult.

I am taking comfort in the fact that we have several years before a general election.

That is several years in which people will have the opportunity to see what happens when Reform actually have some power in local councils. And several years to watch the populist far right shit show further unfold in the US. I can only hope that the combination of these factors will be enough to deter would-be Reform voters from going down that route. However, I have very limited faith in their intelligence or in their ability to make reasonable, rational decisions, so who knows?

How many more posts on this 🙄

Lots, I imagine. It's an alarming prospect for many of us, which might have profound impacts on the choices that we might make going forwards.

Sssh, the grown-ups are talking.

Exactly. Anyone not alarmed at the rise of Reform is part of the problem

I don't think all the points in your list are necessarily bad.

For example, Changes to child benefit that encourage women not to work and become stay at home mums could be a plus factor for many women who want to stay at home but at the moment can't afford to.

Child benefit would have to increase dramatically to enable this. Where's the money coming from? Farage wants to defund the NHS, so I suppose that frees up cash.

I have no interest in my taxes being used to support women (or men) to SAH.

I have no issue with people being SAHPs if they and/or their partners can afford it, but it's an individual lifestyle choice and not one that taxpayers should be paying for in my view.

Of course, it's different where parents have had to give up work to care for disabled children, but they should be regarded as carers rather than SAHPs, and supported accordingly.

Most Reform supporters seem to be awful individuals.
I saw this post on FB earlier in answer to a question on how would Reform deal with the boats:

”simple employ people to patrol the water...... between the channel and pop their boats....... And leave them to make their own way back, theres never women or children otherwise be a different matter it's just all men so........ see if they can swim the channel........ if they swim it then earn the right”

So basically murder!

We have a huge racism problem and it looks like it’s growing bolder if they are happy to post that awful comment on a public forum.

Now they want to target local government pension schemes. This from the person who claims his £73000 a year pension from the EU when he didn’t attend the parliament and which he doesn’t agree with.

I think they will become the opposition party by the time the next GE comes round.

What is most likely is that the Conservative party will adopt all of Reforms policies before then, and make them irrelevant just like they did with UKIP .

At that point they will shmoose Farage who will leave Reform in a flash for more glory,and then have him as their leader, with him eventually becoming Prime Minister.

It's a lovely picture isn't it?

I find it interesting that your only examples of far right governance are the States and Hungary, despite the fact arguably the furthest ‘right’ are probably the Middle Eastern countries?

They already are. The number of people round here gaming the benefits system to avoid work is mad.

As for Reform - yes I’m worried. I don’t think it’s likely per se but it’s a lot more likely than last week, last month, last year. Every month their popularity seems to grow.

The least-worst option is that Reform wreaks disaster at local council level and is unceremoniously booted out at the GE. But even if that occurs, the chances of Labour or Con picking up the slack in the vote appears small. Like Brexit, it’s a protest vote for people who - quite reasonably - think their concerns (principally about immigration) have been ignored by successive governments. Right of centre people feel as politically homeless as those on the left: there are low-competence centrists in government however we vote, and no meaningful choice.

We all know that “we need immigrants to look after the elderly” is Ponzinomics, unless they magically don’t get old or need care. However, a long-term solution would require radical societal change under a clear government strategy and we don’t have a single leader with the vision, strategy or cojones to deliver it.

Tbh I’m worried whoever wins - they’re all absolute dross.

There's a reason there's a rise in support for Reform. Get the main parties to understand the concerns of the electorate and attract their support ! If the mainstream parties sort themselves out Reforms appeal would fade. Don't blame Reform - blame the mainstream parties for no longer listening to the electorate.

I don’t understand why they don’t use this as a massive opportunity to marry both the immigration problem with the ageing population problem.

If I were Starmer, I would restrict immigration by whatever extent I could however I could. Withdraw from ECHR if necessary.

I would then offer 5 year work permits to a ringfenced number of professions to people abroad on the clear understanding it would not result in permanent settlement. However upon completion of the 5 years they would get a one off payment of something like £15k, to help with moving costs and as a lump sum.

That way we can keep a flow of labour into the country without moving in permanent migrants who will add to the population issues.

@LookingForRecommendationA lot of immigrants already do work on temporary contracts, or decide to go back to their country of origin after a while. There’s been a big exodus recently of my compatriots, from the UK back to our EU country, for example.
But some of us have stayed and bought houses, got married to locals, had children, made a life here.
If I’d been told that I’d have to leave after 5 years I’d have said “no thanks” and taken my education and skills back to my own country or elsewhere where I’d know I could settle and make a life if I wanted to. I wouldn’t have wanted to invest up to 5 of my prime working years here building a career, only to then have to leave and start again.
Maybe it could work for very young people who aren’t looking to settle down any time soon, or those who don’t mind moving around a lot. But you can’t really have your cake and eat it - benefit from the labour of immigrants then kick us out.

Well that’s up to you. A foreign national who is looking for some excellent work experience and a wad of cash from which they could put down a flat deposit etc when they get ‘home’, may feel differently. Australia offer work permits for 2 years, this would be slightly longer, I fail to see the difference. It would really suit a newly qualified person looking for a bit of an adventure as well as some savings.

@LookingForRecommendationBut the UK already offers temporary visas. It’s just that under certain conditions there’s also a route to becoming a permanent resident/citizen. If you take that option away lots of people won’t bother. You don’t really come away from the UK after a few years with lots of savings anymore, because of stagnating wages and increased cost of living (hence the exodus I mentioned).

Hence a pay off at the end. Giving them £20k as a goodbye is going to be much cheaper than elderly care.

A week is a long time in politics. it may be a cliche, but that’s because it’s true.

if a week is a long time, the four years between now & the next general election is an eternity. Reform’s current popularity could be a flash in the pan. Without Farage, they would evaporate overnight. Political leaders have surged in popularity before only to be crushed by FPTP and the rigours of an election campaign. Those of us with a few grey hairs can remember the SDP’s attempt to ‘break the mould of British politics’…

Terrifying.