Reform party

[TalkToTheHand123]

Will Reform win any votes at the local elections?

No they don’t. The general public are more likely to think about whether Starmer deserves another go or if he’s (still) pissing enough people off.

It may well be anyone but Labour by then.

Parties get voted out. If a GE was held tomorrow polls say he’d be out, after just 8 months. It has more to do with perception of him and his party and their failings.

Runcorn and Helsby are holding a by election. They are electing an MP, so we're not discussing a council.

I thought we were discussing the possibility of Reform winning the next election? I'd say that's a big deal personally, but each to their own.

It’s your head in the clouds, not mine in the sand if you seriously think Reform could gain 322 seats in the next election. Even if they win Runcorn, one by election four years out from a GE means nothing.

@EasternStandard but who though?

They aren’t going to vote for Lee Anderson are they, or KB either.

My guess is that Labour will indeed lose popularity from their position at the last GE, be forced into a coalition with the LD (who may well continue to gain support at a local level- they are massively in the south where I live)

And scrape the next election. But like I said , a week on politics…

The thread is about the local elections, we're not holding a general election. Reform are fighting like rats in a sack and tend to have very low quality candidates.

Farage is a joke as an MP and has barely visited his constituency.

I wouldn't wet yourself in anticipation just yet.

What’s with the ‘wet yourself’ it’s a political discussion. Insulting people won’t make Labour’s problem dissolve.

@Lonelycrabit doesn’t matter. Starmer looked popular at one point but really each politician’s fortune is tied to how disliked someone else is.

If enough people dislike Starmer then someone else benefits. Then they could run on something as flimsy as toolmaker and get in on a landslide too.

You have either misquoted me, or misunderstood. I said that it is possible that Reform could win.
I'm glad you're content with Labour's polling in Runcorn.

@EasternStandard i also think you far too much overestimate the public’s wish to “smash it all up and start again” which is basically what reforms policies are about. They’re isn’t yet the desire to do that throughout the public, in the inner cities as well as the countryside.
That desire might be there in the future, sure but at this point everyone is just guessing really, you and I included.
There absolutely will be with some voters that want to restart from a very hard position sure; but the general public:no; they want stability. I certainly do.
We have all seen what ripping up the rule book with Brexit did to the country, it failed.
The magic beanstalk has been demonstrated to be a lie as an idea and the polling backs that- it was a mistake.

Farages mistake.

Wet myself in anticipation? WTF
You clearly didn't understand the context of what was being discussed in those particular comments. No need to be nasty. I'm also not a Reform supporter!

Now who’s misunderstanding/misquoting? Where did I mention being content?

Again, LIES. I never said I was voting for them.

I don’t know why people are disbelieving @TheNuthatch

A poll a couple of days ago put Reform in winning position

‘Our new MRP suggests a dramatic transformation of the political landscape since last July. Based on polling of over 16,000 people, the model estimates that, were an election held today, Reform UK would win 180 seats - the largest of any party, with the Conservatives and Labour tied on 165 seats each.‘

More in Common isn’t saying this predicts the GE and no one here will either. But I don’t think the last GE is an indication of seats. The electoral system really kept Reform’s seats low last time despite half Labour’s votes but it starts to fragment the electorate and Reform benefits right now.

Not sure what happens with a three way spilt and Reform in front, but it may change anyway.

16,000 people eh

Let's examine the LIES:

I've asked you several times why you're voting for your local Reform candidate. Go back and check.

You have repeatedly talked about small boats and putting asylum seekers in tents.

When I asked you about what your local candidate was proposing you said putting asylum seekers in tents.

This is all verifiable throughout the thread. Writing LIES in capital letters is ironic given the fact you are denying easily verifiable facts.

It’s actually a larger poll than usual. It’s how they work. More in Common did smaller ones and probably ones the same size pre GE and got it right for a Labour win.

I stand corrected. Please feel free to describe your feelings about what's happened (Mike Amesbury) and is happening (Reform) in Runcorn. Genuine question. A swing of that size in Labour's 16th safest seat could not simply be explained by thousands of voters suddenly dropping in intelligence and becoming right wing knuckle draggers.

To wet your knickers in excitement is a common idiom. Yet more hyperbole from you.

It is not a common idiom at all. I doubt anyone on this thread thinks its a common idiom either. I would never say that to another woman, friend or foe.

Yep.
Labour and their supporters need to work out that bashing Farage, and abusing Reform supporters will achieve nothing. The current government need to do better, and soon.

It's a very common idiom.

No it's not. You asking me why I am voting Reform. I did not say I was. I did not say my local candidate was proposing anything. I said what I would do.

Check the thread.

So common, that I have never seen it written on MN in 20 years. Again, I would never say or write that when addressing another woman.
When you're in a hole, stop digging. You could also apologise but I won't hold my breath.

Well we all know, polls are often wrong and it is also common for newly formed govts to be unpopular in their opening year as they implement unpopular polices….but years away from the next GE all this is academic,

my personal opinion is that the upcoming elections due to missing out vast swathes of the country are about as useful as a chocolate teapot.

Maybe the OP, who’s been a little quiet tonight could weigh in with their valued, informed and balanced opinion

More in Common got it very close for the last GE. Only four points over for Labour and correct for others. Their method is sound.

Still the point isn’t a prediction as they’ve already said, it’s the idea it’s not possible at all for Reform to win. They could only 8 months in. From a few seats to top in that short time. Luckily for Starmer he has a few more years.