Reform party

[TalkToTheHand123]

Will Reform win any votes at the local elections?

Get a life.

To answer your question, only votes from ignorant idiots

Tbf though @Lonelycrab vast swathes aren’t missing out, they simply don’t have elections scheduled in 2025. Some such as Surrey, Essex, and is it four or five other counties have had their elections delayed for sure. But most areas not going to the polls on 1 May were never due to anyway.

if you are though suggesting not too much can necessarily be inferred on a National scale by the relatively limited areas who are voting then that is more than reasonable. Turnout at the last GE was disappointing. But will still be significantly higher than the typical turnout for local council elections that we will probably see next week.

Politics being what it is whoever does well in these elections will spin it as much as possible.

I suppose the thing is whether by the next GE Reform and the Tories will have merged as a single party. Irrespective of who takes over who.

And Wales ???

why Wales. Isn’t Senedd next year, and 2027 for the next Council elections in Wales. Or am I missing something?

Yep next year. Similar increase for Reform polling.

It’s not that they can’t swing votes before the next GE from a few MPs to winning. They could do that today given the MRP below. Labour may benefit from more time, or it could go the other way.

180 seats isn’t a win. A win is 326 seats, ie a majority. More In Common’s accurate polling was just before the GE, not four years out. May 2021 - three years before the last GE - had the Tories nine points ahead, that went well, didn’t it?

I have to say we went to a&e last week and we were in and out with 5 hours.

Why? Why have you been to Afghanistan?

More in Common isn’t a prediction as they’ve stated clearly.

It does show that rn Reform would take many Labour seats and lead with highest number. The idea they can’t go to lead position isn’t the case. They can do it in 8 months.

I think you mean could or might. Not would.

I can’t remember who responded to @TheNuthatchsaying something along the lines of head in clouds that Reform could gain so many MPs by next GE. More in Common shows that was incorrect, they are higher than all parties in 8 months, in a robust MRP.

"Afghanistan is a liberated country".

Wow.
I wonder how Afghan women actually feel about that.

You need to learn to recognise serious comment from not serious.

Afghanistan are just an over the top conservative country. I would be in favour of other countries putting pressure on the Taliban to promote womens' rights though.

Afghans should be sent to the nearest safe middle east country if not Afghanistan.

Unfortunately for you, Afghan asylum seekers, like any other asylum seekers, have the right to seek their asylum anywhere they want.

And that is you being serious? Right

This is the problem. People who are not bright enough to understand that there are not simple solutions so to them it looks like the main parties are just choosing to not fix things, or are incompetent.

the fringe parties can promise anything, say anything, say they have a simple fix and these people believe it.

it’s worse when it’s compounded by these people being pretty racist, or bigoted, or just heartless and the parties play up to that.

our OP here doesn’t want immigrants, thinks there is a simple solution, and is cruel enough to want that solution to be an inhuman one. Reform have realised there’s a lot of OPs out there who think like that…

@TheNuthatch postulated that Reform could form a government at the next GE for which they would need 326 seats. They currently have four. MiC finds them high in the polls four years away from a GE - just like the Tories were at that distance from the last GE. You do remember what happened to them last year?

Just to put a human face to Asylum Seekers, the ones that the OP would like to put in tent camps

https://bylinetimes.com/2025/04/22/immigration-asylum-seekers-women/

Afghanistan is believed to be one of the worst countries in the world for women. They're not allowed to talk in public. They're barbaric.

Labour could keep losing seats of course, including to Reform. 8 months in it’s a mess for them support-wise already. As that MRP shows.

And what they got last time doesn’t mean much given Labour wouldn't get more MPs now.

Luke Tryl himself posted

This should obviously not be seen as a prediction of an election some 4 years away, but an indication of how the electorate has splintered since last July. In addition with three parties on ~24% many of the seats are being decided on tiny margins & realistically could flip any way.

Yes and I stand by my comments. There is a possibility that Reform could win the next election.
Of course things could change, but as you have pointed out, governments are quite capable of losing a whopping majority.

There's a possibility anyone could win the next election. There's a possibility of anything happening.