Reform party

[TalkToTheHand123]

Will Reform win any votes at the local elections?

So is it fair to say they won’t actually tell us all that much? (Certainly in terms of how the overall population is feeling)

Reform is the protest vote. People voting for Farage aren't happy with any of the main parties and want change. In the same way that Brexit was the protest vote.

I don't think people have thought much past that because Farage leading the country would be a disaster (if he actually turned up).

Thank you @BurntBroccoli

My local elections seem to be postponed as do loads of others. It looks like huge swathes of the Uk are not going to be polled; looking at this map (BBC), London, much of the south, east anglia, Brum, Liverpool and much of the north too are not going to be polled.

This isn’t going to tell us that much surely.

So really, is it fair to say that these results will tell us nothing really in terms of how a GE result would go? It seems that way to me.

The next election is years away anyway. I’m struggling to think how these results can tell anyone anything that’s all.

Genuine question

Some Reformers in my local group actually think this vote is like a General Election, plus they think their Local Authority is Labour controlled when it’s actually Conservative.

I agree - the General Election is years away yet and Labour have front loaded the unpopular policies first.

Here’s a map of the last election results.

I find it incredibly unlikely that those constituencies that voted eg Libs (loads)
are going to suddenly vote reform. It’s not going to happen is it.

And I’m not zooming in on the inner city areas and their high density of districts but again; to assume a GE would go to reform is imo, fanciful.

It gives some indication of Labour 8 months in as does Runcorn and MRP polling. If a GE was held now Reform would be in power, so the local elections are not too far from general feeling.

The GE is a while away but I’d say Labour is feeling it from attempts to sway with removing citizen rights, Balkans headlines, those plane videos etc. I don’t think any of these will do it but they might do more to try and stay in power.

It is a long time away, Labour could lose more support too, not just gain it.

But equally they could gain it depending on how the effect of their policies is felt.

A pp mentioned NHS waiting times. These are tangible things that voters will see as progress, as are the efforts to tackle money laundering via dodgy businesses that we’ve seen in the news.

Remember the TP did nothing in terms of policy with these and reform are still seen as a bunch of chancers by a large portion of the country.

Plus the TP have the albatross of Badenoch attempting to be credible hanging around their neck so are going nowhere fast…

I think it's very possible that Reform could win the next GE. A lot has happened since the last election, so I don't think that data is relevant.

Many voters have been bady let down by both main parties, hence the growing support for Reform. Recent polling reflects this.

I very much doubt Badenoch will be leading the Tories at the next General Election.

So Labour and the tories are both failing, which helps Farage. He really doesn't have to work hard. He just has to wait.

Reform and Conservatives do as well as Starmer doesn’t. And rn many don’t like him or Labour particularly.

People vote parties out. And give the ones they don’t want a kicking. Starmer didn’t do much either, people just had to feel annoyed enough to vote last gov out. That could be applied to him next time.

He really doesn't have to work hard.

I'm sure he's delighted.

Well that’s as maybe.

But a week is a long time in politics let alone 4 years so although I hear what you’re saying, it neither here nor there and a lot can happen in that time.

Labour might implode
TP might find a direction,
And reform too might drag themselves out of the gutter which let’s face it they DO need to do to command a parliamentary majority.

My point is; I don’t see how these results are going to mean that much considering much of the country is excluded from voting and therefore it’s not going to tell is anything really.

I don’t think it’s definite for that far away. I do think Labour will be concerned enough to try to use policy to reroute momentum.

The party gaining ground finds it easier than the one losing it.

Absolutely, you're quite right, it could all change quite rapidly. But for the time being, Labour are losing ground with every decision, and the tories are still unelectable. Success for Reform in the locals would build momentum. Also worth remembering that Reform came second in around 100 Labour won seats. If, at the next GE, the mood is to get Labour out, the way to do that in many constituencies will be to vote for Reform. This is playing out right now in Runcorn, where Reform are predicted to overturn Labour's 14K majority.

It's a very long time between now and the next election and I doubt Farage will be voted back in in Clacton.

It depends on Labour continuing to fail. We wait.

I think it's very possible that Reform could win the next GE.

In a different universe perhaps. Four seats to a minimum of 326? Farage isn’t the Messiah, miracles are above his pay grade.

That's all anyone can do.

If a GE was held tomorrow Reform are polled to take it so that’s just 8 months.

That is very fast from a few seats to topping a who would win poll. A product of Starmer losing so much ground and the electoral system delivering much more to one party over another at a certain point.

This isn't about Farage's popularity. It's about Labour, failing on an epic scale.

Why do you think voters are turning to Reform in Runcorn? Only 7000 of them voted Reform at the general election less than a year ago. What's changed??

I hate to tell you but they haven’t yet voted in Runcorn. It’s not wise to count your chickens.

Another problem with farage is;

Well 2 problems really

Will he actually still be physically capable come the next GE? He’s an incredibly unhealthy… gentleman and his bad habits may well catch up on him. Like trump they’re is no obvious successor; he is the holy talisman and without him the whole shebang falls apart really doesn’t it. Who are the majority of the country going to vote for in that not unreasonable scenario? 30p Lee

And secondly, there is absolutely NO WAY he could cope with the gruelling schedule of actually being the prime minister
He’d be taking a sick day on day two of the job. He’s just not physically or mentally capable.

Now you reform supporters don’t tend to think of practical things like these; but the general populace probably does.

So don’t get too excited.

And if Reform win the seat? Why would thousands of people switch from Labour to Reform in Runcorn and Helsby? In less than a year?

As I'm sure you are well aware, the bookies and polls are showing a Reform win. Keeping one's head in the sand is also unwise when so much is at stake.

What's at stake? You're talking about one council. Such hyperbole.