Second EU referendum. How would you vote?

[JasAnglia94]

Sorry if this has been asked before.

I hear this statement made over and over again - that people would "vote differently if we had a EU referendum today". Would you though?

I was REALLY on the fence re. the referendum. I'm 23 and from a comfortable middle-class background.

In short, I think there is a surplus of people competing for jobs - both at graduate and service level - and that the situation is exasperated by free movement. I also think the problem of housing is made worse by free movement; that there isn't enough housing for people at the middle-lower end of the pay scale and that the number of people in this bracket is ever increasing.

However, I voted to remain last minute (after much persuasion). This was due to economic and environmental reasons. I don't trust the current government with environmental policy and I don't think price rises and fewer jobs (or jobs at lower pay) will help people like me.

Would I vote differently now? No. However, I would definitely be more on the remain side than the leave (e.g. my shopping bill depresses me!).

Was anyone else who was on the fence vote differently now?

Public. Not pubic ...ha ha ha. Mmmmmm wonder whats thats about ?

Freudian slip @Pensionista ?

I do not want my Country to model itself on France or Germany or any other Tom Dick or Harry, like Greece,or Poland, because apart from Germany all the other economies are not doing well. France is in desperate states financialy without the EU, France would be bankrupt.

Hmmm. Disagree. France's debt ratings are at the same level as the UK's and France is not on Negative Watch, unlike the UK. Moreover, France does not issue its own currency so the EURO is like a foreign currency. It's easier to get a AAA rating if you issue your own currency.

Finally France is not backed by the EU ... so I don't see the relevance ?

Anyway, I'll take France's leadership right now. Wish we had someone similar here.

At this point in time I think we are completely blind, the EU only wants whats best for the EU, fair enough, but so do we want what's best for the UK, result at this moment in time ....deadlock.

You lost me here. What do we want as a country? I see Tories fighting but no consensus on what we want from the EU in these negotiations.

we ...the pubic have no idea whatsoever what is happening behind the scenes, only what the 'media' tell us ..ha ha ha.

And our media is what it is. It really does not focus on the right issues. I don't think the media is doing a good job of holding pols to account or informing the public (with an 'l'). Lies are being perpetuated without a thought from our press.It's a dereliction of duty.

We have not left the single market yet...saying you think we will is not a fact....so tell me how you think that warrants a re vote ?

True. But we now have pols saying we will in addition to the Customs Union. And that's a fact. They were not saying it before we voted. That's a massive retrade because it means we become a third country subject to trade barriers, either under WTO or under some type of FTA. Slightly negative for 50% of our trade. Massively negative for our EU trade, in particular because of services, but also goods (and Northern Ireland ...).

So if this does turn out to be true, the goalposts would have moved. Actually, no bad analogy. We started playing rugby and are now playing football.

'The eurozone has little to do with the euro? Whaaaaat The whole of the EU is in the euro of course it's relevant, that's why Countries like France, Greece Spain etc are in deep cack.

Thankfully I did not write that. The eurozone is different from the EU. There are 19 eurozone countries and 28 EU countries.

Those countries have struggled yes. The euro is not a good project. But bear in mind they are now growing faster than we are ... All of them. And their issues are not only to do with the euro. Rigid labour laws, bureaucratic corporate laws also to blame.

But answer me this: why do we care if we can still sell them stuff and buy stuff from them? Why can't we still be part of the EU and still trade with them? Frankly I don't care about their euro problems but that doesn't mean I can't still sell them stuff without barriers.

Don't forget we give the EU 15% of the total annual funding of the EU. Thanks but no thanks.

And tell me ... how much is £8 billion (our net contribution) in relation to our GDP ... About 0.4% ...

Rounding error in relation to the £600 billion of trade in goods and services as well ...

Think about the £8billion this way: could we lose this much through the imposition of trade barriers? And inwards investment because we are no longer part of the Single Market.

Easily. Signing off for this evening ... Good night.

We still have advantages EU countries don't have: language, our laws, our financial system, our universities etc and people forget quickly

Yes we do and they will still be advantages after we have left.

I'd try to get some agreement to restructure the EU from Merkel and Macron if I could before doing so

Call me negative but I can’t see that happening.

If for example you put your four scenarios on a ballot paper in the hope of getting your favoured option of staying in, then you end up with Brexit in reverse. People would be voting to stay in and not knowing what they were voting for (because for sure it won’t be what we have now). Then do we having a third referendum on the staying in deal once it has been hashed out and so it goes on and on, in the meantime the country goes to the dogs anyway.

Great news for brexiteers on the BBC this morning. Bank of England believes brexit could cost 75000 finance jobs.
And think of all those jobs in transport/hospitality/cleaning etc related to those jobs!
Change is coming! Time for a celebration!

Humpsfor20yds - aarrgghh there is that word ‘could’ again.

@time4chocolate

Re your post on Britain’s advantages I agree with you in part.

The advantages which remain accessible should continue to help us thrive.

English law is still used in commercial contracts and financings and London as a jurisdiction is therefore seriously advantaged relative to civil law countries. One could expect this to continue.

But those advantages which have barriers thrown up won’t thrive. And it they don’t thrive they will shrink.

So ... if we restrict immigration then unis and the financial sector, hospitality, NHS could all be affected.

If other countries make it hard to sell our financial services then our world leading financial services sector will wither. Jobs / functions will move.

The UK Is an easy place to do business. Still. But it won’t be if trade barriers are thrown up. The domestic UK economy is not large enough for some investors / businesses.

@time4chocolate

At some point we do need to accept that Brexit is - logically - not presenting upsides to our economy. The downsides are becoming apparent.

So even if the BOE is wrong and it’s not 75k jobs but 50k or 100k does it matter?

What matters more is the expectation which is negative. And given a negative expectation one can reasonably expect jobs to leave. It’s really not that hard a concept.

There is never any certainty in the future. No one has ever had a crystal ball. That doesn’t make planning impossible. Thankfully.

I would vote the same as I did before....to leave. I'm still for Brexit, I haven't changed my views and yes, my shopping bill is also going up but that's predictable. It will settle down eventually, once we leave.

I am not racist, I vote(d) for Brexit because I want us to be able to govern ourselves and make decisions ourselves, not to be dictated to by those in Brussels. I am also keen on the Scandinavian way, I am a great admirer of countries such as Icleand and Norway, who are not part of the EU.... No, we are NOT a small country with a big ego, places like Iceland are very small and don't even have half a million inhabitants but they manage to govern themselves and survive pretty well (low crime, low unemployment, good health system, support immigration, they have better equality, good emphasis on education, able to trade freely with big players such as China and even Russia without someone else telling them who they can or can't do business with....)

@WorldWideWanderer

I hear this accusation a lot about Brussels.

In what way do you think Brussels imposes laws on the UK?

Can you provide examples and take us through the process? I must admit to being less informed on this front.

Dumb bank of England. Idiot economists. Stupid scientists. Civil Servant prats. Business leaders prats. Universities treacherous. Dim MPs.

If David Davis, Nigel Farage,Jacob Rees Mogg and the Daily Mail say Brexit will be brilliant it surely will be.

Apologies I am a bit slow this morning, I have now read the BBC article which ‘humpfor20yds’ referred to.

This is what pisses me off and is a great example of typical scaremongering. Post the headline of doom and gloom which fits a narrative along with a sarcastic comment - job done.

Here is a link for anyone interested in reading the full article.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41803604

@time4chocolate

I just read the article.

What’s wrong with it?

I see job losses being thrown around. No growth figures. So clearly a consensus that there will be losses. Again who really cares or know what the end figure is? We just know it will mean a contraction in our financial services sector.

So “directionally not beneficial “.

Also I don’t think the scenario being suggested - no EU UK deal on financial services is silly. I would expect the EU will want to promote growth in financial services in the EU 27. Makes sense to me.

@Humpsfor20yards

You forgot Daniel Hannan.

Classic quote from him this morning: I booked my Ocado delivery for 7-8 this morning and they showed up at 7:40.
There is no reason customs can't be just as easy after Brexit.

Now that’s what I call trade policy. He would do well in the Trump administration.

Hey! I brushed my teeth this morning. No reason why trade can’t be so simple as brushing your teeth.

OliviaD68 - nothing wrong with the article itself it’s the headline.

To my mind the BOE have not covered themselves in glory over the last 18 months. Like you I have worked in the city for 15+ years and I just can’t see it happening in those numbers (or close to).

Of course, having learnt from the government what happens when you don’t have an alternative scenario, it’s sensible. However, investment by banks continues over here, no-one has pulled the plug on that and it continues even though a no deal looks likely. I havent heard anything to the contrary ....yet. As much as the EU would like to promote growth in the financial sector, and they can, they are way behind us at the present time.

Same as before. Leave.

@Humpsfor20yards

New culpa on Daniel Hannan. I got fooled by a parody account. I’m in good company but still silly not to have realised it.

Apologies.

mea culpa.**

@time4chocolate

I think I read that euro clearing activities in London account for some 80,000 jobs. If those are forced to move to an EU country bc the ECB somehow manages to make it a requirement- why would 75k in job losses seem high to you?

OliviaD68 - ok fair point if all 80,000 clearing jobs go. There is no doubt that passporting/clearing is bully’s star prize (showing my age ) and of course the EU want it as much as we want/need to keep it. Politically it would be a coup for the EU. However the practicalities and economical ramifications for the EU/euro if its not done properly would be huge.

As much as the they would like it based in the EU, when push comes to shove are they prepared to take the risk? It makes no financial sense to move it from where it is. I have always said that there will be a deal on this which is acceptable to both sides, and it will involve us having to suck up some sort of supervision in certain circumstances.

I will run down my local busy ‘A’ road in my Union Jack 🇬🇧 👙 if it does actually ship out.

@time4chocolate

Well. Politics don't always lead to sensible decisions wouldn't you know ...

So a stupid decision to leave the EU could easily be matched by a slightly dumber one to move Euro clearing.

And that's just one activity. Bank regulators have been saying they want EU business activities in the EU out of EU capitalised banking entities (for supervisory, not political, purposes of course) with no suitcase bankers ...

I don't know what the ultimate number of lost jobs will be but 75k over a 5 or 10 year horizon may even be low if barriers rise - and these barriers to trade could rise gradually. Nothing we can do about it

And of course, everything is conjector. Lets wait and see shall we. I would argue a few more points here OliviaD68, but glad to say I'm off to Vietnam to get away from all the madness of europe. Whatever the argument for or against, and there are valid points on both sides, I still believe the UK will survive and do well. I still want my Country to be free to make it's own laws, have it's own border controls, and have it's own government that I can vote for whether that's a good or bad government, at least it's my government and not a federal government with crazy wannabe ruler's like Junker telling us what we should do and how we should live. History tells me we will do well.

Recent letter to newspaper from a reader in York.

"It's untrue that England is divided on Brexit beteeen northern Leavers and southern Remainers. After the referendum, the Electoral Commission divided England into 8 regions excluding London, and every provincial region recorded a LEAVE majority.

"Yes, the South-East wanted to get out of Europe. And the South-West vote would have been higher if Gibraltar's 19,000 Remain figure had not been included.

"The only region that didn't vote Leave was Greater London. That's the real split, between London determined to keep the status quo gravy train and the rest of England desperate for change. That's why we've had a succession of stalling tactics in the courts and the Commons ever since."

@ChakraLines

Interesting viewpoint.

Was remain but would vote leave now after seeing the EU for what it really is. A big bully who wants a super state and EU army. We're better off without them I can see that now however difficult the transition will be.

@Beowulf007

Why is the EU a big bully?

If it is wouldn’t it be better to be a part of it and representing you vs a counterparty?