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Politics

Clinton V Trump - into the final three weeks.

1000 replies

OhYouBadBadKitten · 23/10/2016 16:51

new thread. :)

OP posts:
lljkk · 23/10/2016 19:17

17 days... I just want it over with, now. Like Brexit.

Mistigri · 23/10/2016 19:27

It's basically all over isn't it? Bookies have started paying out.

I've got a bit bored with election watching, though I had a look at the early voting stats today. Concensus seems to be that they are encouraging for Clinton.

RufusTheSpartacusReindeer · 23/10/2016 20:05

Does anyone know (i could google but i am very lazy) how the election will run?

When the votes come in and which states are important and what time it will be over (bar the shouting Grin)

Mistigri · 23/10/2016 21:05

I gather that if HRC wins Florida (very likely), North Carolina (likely) and Pennsylvania (dead cert) then it is all over bar the shouting.

No idea about timing.

RufusTheSpartacusReindeer · 23/10/2016 21:07

Thanks misti

Fiderer · 23/10/2016 21:14

Florida is barely above the MoE for Clinton.

North Carolina well below.

Many polls have PA also around the MoE.

I know the polls vary & the Electoral College is all but still. Not over yet imo.

lljkk · 23/10/2016 21:15

Exit polls will give prelim results starting about 10am EST. We will get exit poll results all day for each state. The balloting is electronic so pretty quickly processed, which (I think usually) starts long before the real polls closed. Any early results will mostly be absentee ballots -- traditionally they were mostly conservative (elderly & military), but USA has large diaspora of 'Others' (like me) who tend to strongly vote Democrat. Plus some states count absentee votes after the ballot day, each state has own ways to do it.

By the time the polls close in California (7pm PST, 3am GMT), the final results will be pretty clear on POTUS race, but may need double counting & thus delayed results in the swing states.

RufusTheSpartacusReindeer · 23/10/2016 21:17

Thanks llijk

claig · 23/10/2016 22:18

#TrumpTheEstablishment

Lweji · 23/10/2016 23:32

Considering the penchant that Trump has for projecting, if you replace Clinton and establishment in that clip with Trump, I think you'll be closer to the truth.

Lweji · 23/10/2016 23:36

I'm feeling slightly sad that I won't have much Internet connection at the time of the election.
Hopefully, it won't be too traumatic.

Mistigri · 24/10/2016 07:36

I know the polls vary & the Electoral College is all but still. Not over yet imo.

Which is why I used the word "likely" not "certain" for Florida and NC.

The polls could be wrong, but in the case of those three states, it would require all recent polls to be wrong. And the thing about a margin of error is that it works both ways...

Mistigri · 24/10/2016 07:39

(I'm talking about state polls there, if it's not obvious. All three states are quite well-polled, because they are or should be competitive).

OhYouBadBadKitten · 24/10/2016 07:40

if it is tight and a candidate contests particularly tight states then it could be flipping forever before we get the result.

OP posts:
Fiderer · 24/10/2016 07:45

Agree, Misti.

Blimey, look at IBD vs ABC from yesterday. Trump +1 vs Clinton +12 Hmm

From here my son is threatening to block it so I get some work done.

Lweji · 24/10/2016 08:11

Those are national polls. Harder to get right. And don't reflect the electoral college.

ToujeoQueen · 24/10/2016 11:05

Checking in to new thread Brew

ImperialBlether · 24/10/2016 11:22

Does anyone know what the betting offices here are thinking?

Lweji · 24/10/2016 11:30

Apparently, some betting offices have started paying up for Clinton (from another thread).

ImperialBlether · 24/10/2016 11:55

How can they pay up when the election hasn't happened yet?

Lweji · 24/10/2016 11:58

Ah, it's Paddy Power
money.cnn.com/2016/10/18/news/paddypower-pays-hillary-clinton-bettors/

I don't know. It is weird.

But the odds are for Clinton, anyway.

claig · 24/10/2016 11:59

Just had a look at the odds here. It is about 4/1 or 9/2 for Trump to win and 1/6 for Hillary.

But there are still 15 days to go and it is quite likely that the mainstream media may be lying about the real support levels etc.

claig · 24/10/2016 12:01

'How can they pay up when the election hasn't happened yet?'

They probably think Trump will lose and they then pay out and hope that the punters take that money and bet on something else so that the firm recovers that money or some of it.

Lweji · 24/10/2016 12:01

Yes, claig...

That's what it is.

Lweji · 24/10/2016 12:02

the mainstream media, I mean.

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