Page 23 | Missing Woman Nicola Bulley 8

ofwarren · 2023-02-12T18:39:21+00:00

Here's the new thread My phone is playing up. I wrote a FAQ and then it crashed and I lost it all. I'm also dealing with a child on the spectrum who is bouncing off the walls this evening so I apologise for not being around much.

DerangedViper · 13/02/2023 18:39

At Press Conference police said the below, I think their belief is she may have entered the water elsewhere. IMO We can almost certainly say she DID NOT enter the water by the bench. SR at Press Conference:^
We can say with confidence, therefore, that we believe Nicola remained in the riverside area. I understand that this is frustrating for those observing the investigation when the river has been searched and Nicola has not been found. That does not mean, however, that Nicola was not in the river at some point due to the tidal flow of the river. For this reason, our search of the river and the river banks extends out to the sea, particularly the area from Knott End, out towards Morecambe"

There have been various assumptions that SR was under-informed and was therefore briefing shoddily.

But what is her mistake was not that she did not know that the river was not tidal by the bench, but rather that the police's working assumption is that Nicola entered the water where it is tidal - ie below the weir - but they (for whatever reason) did not want to be explicit about that?

JaneJeffer · 13/02/2023 18:41

melonraspberry · 13/02/2023 18:36

For me Occam’s Razor suggests something other than the water. I think if I’m right PF may find her . I can’t express more as it’s total speculation and involves a third party. Probably I’m wrong though.

I think you're thinking what I'm thinking but I'm not going to put it in writing either.

Goldpaw · 13/02/2023 18:41

melonraspberry · 13/02/2023 18:36

For me Occam’s Razor suggests something other than the water. I think if I’m right PF may find her . I can’t express more as it’s total speculation and involves a third party. Probably I’m wrong though.

I think it depends where PF is able to search.

If she didn't go across the water then I probably think the same as you.

Bluebellwood129 · 13/02/2023 18:45

@DerangedViper The errors made by SR were at earlier press conferences. Unless I'm mistaken, that was taken from the PC on Feb 8th by which time they had pretty much conceded that their original hypothesis was wrong.

addinganidea · 13/02/2023 18:46

@notsinging Indeed, if the river is easily crossable (especially from the area to the south west of the bench, south of the path leading from the kissing gate) then avoiding being seen is actually likely rather than unlikely. It's then straight into trees on the other side, to the west side of the mansion. There's a road there that runs up from Hall Lane to the mansion and would be obscured to all but other road users, which unless anyone is coming to or from the mansion there would be none of.

Like you, I do worry that the focus is unduly focussed on exits from the north side of the river. If that river is wadeable there are numerous exits not being discussed.

I also appreciate I may be projecting my experience i.e. the police not taking into account my statement detailing where the muggers went (top of bank and disappeared) onto these events.

LikeTearsInRain · 13/02/2023 18:46

Goldpaw · 13/02/2023 18:41

I think it depends where PF is able to search.

If she didn't go across the water then I probably think the same as you.

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I don’t get it

confounded234 · 13/02/2023 18:47

DerangedViper · 13/02/2023 18:39

At Press Conference police said the below, I think their belief is she may have entered the water elsewhere. IMO We can almost certainly say she DID NOT enter the water by the bench. SR at Press Conference:^
We can say with confidence, therefore, that we believe Nicola remained in the riverside area. I understand that this is frustrating for those observing the investigation when the river has been searched and Nicola has not been found. That does not mean, however, that Nicola was not in the river at some point due to the tidal flow of the river. For this reason, our search of the river and the river banks extends out to the sea, particularly the area from Knott End, out towards Morecambe"

There have been various assumptions that SR was under-informed and was therefore briefing shoddily.

But what is her mistake was not that she did not know that the river was not tidal by the bench, but rather that the police's working assumption is that Nicola entered the water where it is tidal - ie below the weir - but they (for whatever reason) did not want to be explicit about that?

If so, then they haven't shared this informatino with the family in a case that the police are adamant that there is no criminal involvement. Doesn't make sense.

I think SI Riley is just not on top of brief and makes an awful lot of assumptions. I suspect not the world's greatest listener, like so many public sector senior managers

Peverellshire · 13/02/2023 18:49

DerangedViper · 13/02/2023 18:39

At Press Conference police said the below, I think their belief is she may have entered the water elsewhere. IMO We can almost certainly say she DID NOT enter the water by the bench. SR at Press Conference:^
We can say with confidence, therefore, that we believe Nicola remained in the riverside area. I understand that this is frustrating for those observing the investigation when the river has been searched and Nicola has not been found. That does not mean, however, that Nicola was not in the river at some point due to the tidal flow of the river. For this reason, our search of the river and the river banks extends out to the sea, particularly the area from Knott End, out towards Morecambe"

There have been various assumptions that SR was under-informed and was therefore briefing shoddily.

But what is her mistake was not that she did not know that the river was not tidal by the bench, but rather that the police's working assumption is that Nicola entered the water where it is tidal - ie below the weir - but they (for whatever reason) did not want to be explicit about that?

Yes, I think they assumed vulnerability, for whatever reason, and that may point to a lot of early assumptions and consequent action points. Whilst keeping an open mind, they possibly thought about what was most plausible as they saw it. And here we are...

pigsinoodies · 13/02/2023 18:53

DerangedViper · 13/02/2023 18:39

At Press Conference police said the below, I think their belief is she may have entered the water elsewhere. IMO We can almost certainly say she DID NOT enter the water by the bench. SR at Press Conference:^
We can say with confidence, therefore, that we believe Nicola remained in the riverside area. I understand that this is frustrating for those observing the investigation when the river has been searched and Nicola has not been found. That does not mean, however, that Nicola was not in the river at some point due to the tidal flow of the river. For this reason, our search of the river and the river banks extends out to the sea, particularly the area from Knott End, out towards Morecambe"

There have been various assumptions that SR was under-informed and was therefore briefing shoddily.

But what is her mistake was not that she did not know that the river was not tidal by the bench, but rather that the police's working assumption is that Nicola entered the water where it is tidal - ie below the weir - but they (for whatever reason) did not want to be explicit about that?

But 'entering the water where it is tidal' doesn't explain the dog staying by the bench. Nor does it explain what actually happened to her since the water past the weir is shallower than by the bench and the tide was fully out.

Peverellshire · 13/02/2023 18:56

pigsinoodies · 13/02/2023 18:53

But 'entering the water where it is tidal' doesn't explain the dog staying by the bench. Nor does it explain what actually happened to her since the water past the weir is shallower than by the bench and the tide was fully out.

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There was reference to faster flowing sections of the river, where she 'might' have been. It probably justifies the resources for the sea search if this was her plan, as they saw it.

confounded234 · 13/02/2023 19:06

Peverellshire · 13/02/2023 18:56

There was reference to faster flowing sections of the river, where she 'might' have been. It probably justifies the resources for the sea search if this was her plan, as they saw it.

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To me it feels like the police stuck their neck out on day one and said "she's in the water, end of". Even on day 2 it was reported that the sergeant at Fleetwood was ruling out foul play.

Since then they have had to manipulate the briefings or just reject/ignore other sensible advice to keep to that narrative.

No one with any expertise in the matter, other than the police, believes that she fell in by the bench, could drown there and could not be found. Only the police have stuck by that. And if they didn't think she fell in by the bench, when LITERALLY the only evidence they have of falling in is a) she can't be found b) the phone and harness were by the bench, then they cannot logically rule out foul play.

RocketIceLollie · 13/02/2023 19:08

Do we know if it's been made public if police used sniffer dogs in the area in the first 24 hours?

MaMisled · 13/02/2023 19:10

notsinging · 13/02/2023 18:24

That sounds horrifically frightening @addinganidea and it really illustrates how someone with a gun might be able to compel silence in a victim, even when there are others in the vicinity.

Your thoughts about the possibility of wading through the shallows to a van parked hidden on the other side are exactly what's been playing on my mind over the last few days. Everyone has been very focussed on the known exits, paths and roads on the "same side of the river" but I've kept on returning to the mentions of the shallower parts of the river being very shallow on the day in question and the sightings of the red van parked down the quiet lane on the far side of the river.

It's unlikely, but it doesn't seem to be impossible (and tbh all of it feels pretty unlikely, but something must be true)

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I'm so sorry you endured that.

I am not surprised about them going up bank and through a hole in the fence.

SH and I go stealth camping (very naughty, should know better at 56 and 60). We go off piste, through bushes and undergrowth to find little sheltered clear spots.

There certainly won't be just 3 exits. There'll be a hundred ways through and out. We're not neck high in nettles and brambles at this time of year.

fairydust11 · 13/02/2023 19:10

confounded234 · 13/02/2023 19:06

To me it feels like the police stuck their neck out on day one and said "she's in the water, end of". Even on day 2 it was reported that the sergeant at Fleetwood was ruling out foul play.

Since then they have had to manipulate the briefings or just reject/ignore other sensible advice to keep to that narrative.

No one with any expertise in the matter, other than the police, believes that she fell in by the bench, could drown there and could not be found. Only the police have stuck by that. And if they didn't think she fell in by the bench, when LITERALLY the only evidence they have of falling in is a) she can't be found b) the phone and harness were by the bench, then they cannot logically rule out foul play.

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Couldn’t agree more.

PumpkinSoup21 · 13/02/2023 19:11

I know they cancelled Crimewatch but I wonder whether they would do something along those lines for this case. It seems like the sort of thing where a visual reconstruction could very well help jog someone’s memory locally. It wouldn’t mean admitting third party involvement - it could still be an open question of a missing person but it could help.

Original poster

ofwarren · 13/02/2023 19:11

I've just read someone say that maybe the police going round like they did to 'reassure' the caravan park owner could be so they can also ask questions and get a feel for the residents, if you get what I mean.
The police know what to look for and what questions to ask.

OP posts:

liveforsummer · 13/02/2023 19:13

ofwarren · 13/02/2023 19:11

I've just read someone say that maybe the police going round like they did to 'reassure' the caravan park owner could be so they can also ask questions and get a feel for the residents, if you get what I mean.
The police know what to look for and what questions to ask.

Is the caravan park actually open? Many aren't in January

melonraspberry · 13/02/2023 19:13

MaMisled · 13/02/2023 19:10

I'm so sorry you endured that.

I am not surprised about them going up bank and through a hole in the fence.

SH and I go stealth camping (very naughty, should know better at 56 and 60). We go off piste, through bushes and undergrowth to find little sheltered clear spots.

There certainly won't be just 3 exits. There'll be a hundred ways through and out. We're not neck high in nettles and brambles at this time of year.

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This is basically what PF said, he said there were lots of tracks

Goingforasong · 13/02/2023 19:16

I wonder if there could have been another reason for Nicola to enter the water in a hurry, leaving her phone on the bench. Many people get into trouble trying to rescue dogs or other animals from water. Could Nicola, who is apparently a strong swimmer, have been attempting to rescue an animal of some sort from a deeper part of the river? Willow was dry, but another dog may have needed help. If so, I would doubt that she would intend to swim wearing her coat with her car keys in the pocket, but perhaps she waded in, particularly if the water was calm and looked shallow, and then fell into a deeper hole once she was in the water.

Peverellshire · 13/02/2023 19:16

confounded234 · 13/02/2023 19:06

To me it feels like the police stuck their neck out on day one and said "she's in the water, end of". Even on day 2 it was reported that the sergeant at Fleetwood was ruling out foul play.

Since then they have had to manipulate the briefings or just reject/ignore other sensible advice to keep to that narrative.

No one with any expertise in the matter, other than the police, believes that she fell in by the bench, could drown there and could not be found. Only the police have stuck by that. And if they didn't think she fell in by the bench, when LITERALLY the only evidence they have of falling in is a) she can't be found b) the phone and harness were by the bench, then they cannot logically rule out foul play.

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Would potential, hypothetical, vulnerability, necessitate and/or justify this approach?

I think the police now concede she didn’t enter the water by the bench, but that doesn’t mean she wasn’t ever in the water.

liveforsummer · 13/02/2023 19:20

I think the police now concede she didn’t enter the water by the bench, but that doesn’t mean she wasn’t ever in the water.

The 'wasn't ever in the water' wording puzzles me. Meaning she was but isn't now? Odd phrase

Bluebellwood129 · 13/02/2023 19:20

ofwarren · 13/02/2023 19:11

I've just read someone say that maybe the police going round like they did to 'reassure' the caravan park owner could be so they can also ask questions and get a feel for the residents, if you get what I mean.
The police know what to look for and what questions to ask.

Yes - that would explain what's all over SM at the moment regarding the owner.

Peverellshire · 13/02/2023 19:20

Goingforasong · 13/02/2023 19:16

I wonder if there could have been another reason for Nicola to enter the water in a hurry, leaving her phone on the bench. Many people get into trouble trying to rescue dogs or other animals from water. Could Nicola, who is apparently a strong swimmer, have been attempting to rescue an animal of some sort from a deeper part of the river? Willow was dry, but another dog may have needed help. If so, I would doubt that she would intend to swim wearing her coat with her car keys in the pocket, but perhaps she waded in, particularly if the water was calm and looked shallow, and then fell into a deeper hole once she was in the water.

She did have form for this, so possible in theory, only where in vicinity of bench, might she have got in trouble? Where was closed point water‘dangerous’’?

Peverellshire · 13/02/2023 19:21

Closest point (typo).

Original poster

ofwarren · 13/02/2023 19:21

liveforsummer · 13/02/2023 19:13

Is the caravan park actually open? Many aren't in January

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Not till March according to the website

OP posts: