Missing Woman Nicola Bulley 7

[LoveMAFS]

The chat appears to have gone quiet today after the last thread filled up, so I'm making a new one for anyone who wants to come together whilst we all hold our breath hoping for a good outcome.

@lemmein

*100% this!

The police-cheerleaders are beyond tedious.

When I first heard about Nicola she'd already been missing a few days. I side-eyed it on the news, not really taking much notice then I heard SR say, with complete confidence, that they didn't believe a crime had been committed and no third party was involved - that piqued my interest. I'd never heard the police rule out criminality so early, it didn't make sense at all - the dry dog, the phone left on the bench, no sightings of a body in a relatively shallow, slow-moving river. Something didn't add up.

Seeing the media report from the bench area where they claimed Nicola had gone missing - WTF? No police tape, no footage of fingertip searches - in fact, I've hardly seen footage of police at the scene at all apart from divers. It's just not the usual way these things play-out, which leads to (perhaps unfair? Time will tell) criticism of the police, even by other police officers.*

I sincerely hope the police are just biding their time, and are misdirecting the public on purpose for the greater good of the investigation because otherwise we are witnessing one of the biggest balls up in police history and that is too fucking depressing to contemplate. Nikki, and others like her....we all deserve better!

I thought the same.

There was never any evidence Nicola had gone into the water, at the bench or anywhere else along the river that I read, only that her dry dog was found in the area, she was last seen in the vicinity and her phone was found on the ground near a bench overlooking the river.

They must have been aware there was an exit from that area not covered by CCTV early on.

Just as there was no evidence she'd fallen in the river, there was no evidence that she HADN'T met with foul play and was taken away from the area either.

This disappearance seemed so out of character for a capable, intelligent woman who was fit with no reported medical issues, who'd walked the route a thousand times, had two little girls it was very low probability she'd walked out on, no reported vulnerabilities, and nothing to suggest she'd jumped into the river to rescue her dog which would have been the only possible reason for her to go into the river! Anyway there's no way anyone with any sense would have jumped into a river to save a dog with a long thick coat and wellies on!

A sudden medical issue is really scraping the barrel and is less probable than an abduction and anyway she'd have been near the riverbank.

I at first thought the police were keeping info back and has a suspect that they were biding their time on but now it doesn't look like it.

I don't think her partner is involved as it's improbable with timings unless he cycled up there to kill her but then what did he do with her? Why give interviews stating he doesn't think she's in the river would have been totally going against his interests if he'd done something to her?

Potentially a major fuck up from whoever decided the line of enquiry they were taking and a window where Nicola could have potentially been found.

Now she could be anywhere with no trace left to find.

Apologies I'm still catching up from earlier today but re the chickens, yes there is a law that states no birds should be free ranging due to avian flu doing the rounds.

However I'm in a few chicken related groups on fb as I used to keep them and many many people are not adhering to the rules as many think it's cruel to their birds to be locked up and there are really no good checks in place to make sure smallholders are following rules so there is really no way of knowing if the smallholders hens were inside or outside.

Unfortunately it is - potentially - everywhere.
I'm a survivor of CSA so I think I'm probably over not under sensitised & so I've been mindful, raising my Dd, to try not to let my childhood experience affect her.
I live rurally in a reasonably naice area (low crime anyway) - not much happens.

I purchased something from FB market place in Dec. Turned out it was being sold by a 500 yds away nieghbour, so I went on foot to collect it (hadn't said to anyone where I was going as I 'sort of' know her & it was just around the corner). Her son came to the door, said 'Mum's out' & invited me in to see it. I didn't like his stare at all so stayed & paid on doorstep (he then offered to drive me home with item I said NO, then to carry it home for me - it was bulky & awkward - I said NO. 2 days later a diff neighbour tells me he's 'just out of prison for rape'.

Dd is unhappy that I won't let her out for a walk alone atm (even with dog). She has to be with a friend, her big brother or me. Last week an 11 y/o was abducted by a local trades-person. The child is home now (& I hope being given good support) but the man who abducted her was 'well known' in the area for a while.

And then we have Sarah Everard, Milly Dowler, Nicola Bulley, Emma Pattison. and so many hundreds more. (I appreciate that these are all wildly different cases).
I appreciate that, statistically, I'm as safe or not as I was last month, or last year. Police are not any more inept or corrupt than they ever were (we just know now).
But I'm not walking through the woods alone at present either.

I hope Nicola is alive, I hope she is able to return home safe (if she wishes).
There 'but for the grace of god' go any of us really.

Exactly this.
This is the only possible scenario that remains..

@Goldpaw from press conf just because she wasn’t in the water by bench ‘doesn’t mean she wasn’t in the water’ elsewhere.

I believe they think they have ‘proof’ she was elsewhere in the river, but what?

But nobody from the police has ever said the inquiry isn’t active. It’s largely people on social media who seem to think that the only thing the police are looking into is her going into the river. And they have a fraction of the information the police do an no idea what is going on that they can’t see.

I can understand why the family don’t want to think she went into the river but it seems the most likely explanation.

I believe they think they have ‘proof’ she was elsewhere in the river, but what?
If they have why don't the family know what it is?

@ImprobablePuffin Nicola has mentioned sheep by site in past, these are there too. Not just chickens.

@Neededanewuserhandle & @FeetupTvon how strange, I took a completely different message from him, and his behaviour on that interview. And from her sister too. I won't say what I took from it but it definitely wasn't that. I often do not react in the way people would deem normal for certain situations. So I do not think we can speculate about other people's reactions.

I really have to disagree. I really do not think she's gone off her own accord at all or to be with a lover.

But nobody from the police has ever said the inquiry isn’t active.

I meant that if there's now 60 officers working on it, increased from 40, then it's scaling up not down as you might expect after over a fortnight.

Although, as I mentioned, SI Riley has got things wrong before, so however many are working on it, it could just be exactly the same and not increased at all.

Hi I've read most of these threads (thankyou for your stewardship) and think i am finally clear on timeline & where broken cctv is etc. I'm not sure whether it's deemed inappropriate to pass opinion - speculate- on what happened but that's really what people are doing so I'm going to add my 3 pennyworth if I'm allowed, and happy to be shot down if there are practical impossibilities and I'm not thinking straight.
Firstly I don't believe Nicola was abducted, mainly because the time available was such a short risky window. Even though she likely followed a pattern there would be enough variation to make it very likely to be caught by other walkers.
She may have fallen in or attempted to drown herself but again since it would appear to have to have occurred between 9.20 and 9.30 and her body was not picked up by thermal imaging or visually, within 8 hrs, even if she had gone over the weir it doesn't seem likely to me. And for all the questioning of his motive PF seems credible and his judgement sound.
Nicola could conceivably have left that area and somehow gone downriver to achieve the same goal hoping her body would go unfound and I'd imagine that the reason may well be to leave her children not wondering why she had taken her life but leaving it in question at least.
There's so far no evidence of this trip and it would need a pretty cold hearted accomplice .
The only other and most likely scenario I can imagine is that for whatever reason she decided to do a runner. Her unusual - by Paul's account - actions that morning , i.e. , having the children ready and the car loaded seem to imply that she had something significant planned and ahead of it was very focussed , "housekeeping" so there were no hiccups. It may also be that she loaded the car instead of Paul - who would have normally - so she could stow in another bag containing long wellies ( she was wearing ankle height boots on cam) or other clothing.
Either way, if the dashcam footage obtained by the police goes back as far as 8.30 / 8.40 and shows her walking across the bridge with an unexpected carrier that would corroborate.
It would be essential for Nicola to have a PAYG second phone for comms with her accomplice / lover. Having walked the field, met a couple of people, logged on to her zoom meeting she would be back at the bench by 9.20. It's likely she will make contact - with whoever is in the red van off Hall lane maybe? - I wonder whether phone calls can be back triangulated to confirm if any other calls were made from the field / bench location around this time that cannot be traced to her official phone or that of witnesses, and therefore probably from a second PAYG. More corroboration if so but that may not be possible to check.
Where she could now be met without being seen is a problem and with cctv on exits to the north likely would mean she'd need to cross the river to the south & also avoiding the main road. Likeliest or physically easiest may be to go back along "towpath", & cross river on foot ( in high wellingtons ?) about 20m downstream of the weir. Just out of sight of the road , hidden by the river bend. Shallow at this time. 9.30 , the tide completely out. & that probably wasn't a coincidence. The next 250m around the bank going east would be the unnerving part , where most likely to be seen, unless it's possible to walk along the bank near the river in the trees and out of sight? Then into woodland to south of "derelict"? house and skirting the rear of St. Michaels Hall towards Hall Lane. That's where the barn is where the red van was seen.
Another possible route would be a 2 minute swim across from the bottom loop on the upper field. Not out of the question ( wetsuit ?) and from the point of view of being seen, less risky, with just 150m field crossing at the other side, to the barn. Problem there being changing / bagging / taking clothes across with her ? She's a strong swimmer, and in my books very probably alive

If her partner had anything to do with it he wouldn’t be insisting that the police should carry out a fingertip search of the area. It’s shocking that this wasn’t done on the day.
The bench is next to a “Danger” sign - Nicola Bulley can read. She knows the river well and in the photos I’ve seen when Willow’s been swimming it’s been from the little beach further up the river closer to Rowanwater.
Nicola put so much information about her daily life on Facebook and Strava that I think a planned abduction is a distinct possibility.

It is easy to overlook the fact that nobody else involved (police, detectives, experts) knew that particular stretch of water and it's surrounds better than Nicola.

@Inthedaaark I think the short space of time can equally be used to say she didn't drown. It can take between 10-12 minutes for a person to drown to death.

It's as if you don't realise this is a real family.

I would assume that if a third party is involved it’s a planned thing - an accident or spontaneous attack on another person would be impossible for your average person to cover up this well in such a short time frame.

@AbsolutelyFuckingSick omg you are still going. Absolutely ridiculous to be so outraged people are discussing a missing person. How horrific that the wider public are discussing something broadcasted in the news.

Gosh you have really thought about this haven't you!!

I just hope the speculation stops and this poor family get answers and closure soon:

A woman is missing. The police don't instil confidence as has been said repeatedly.

Women are targeted and attacked all the time, we've no idea if this is the case here or not. We need to keep talking about it and shouldn't be told to be quiet.

@AbsolutelyFuckingSick if you went missing, would you want no one to give a shit and to never speak about you again? What's missing in your life that 1, you don't care or 2, you are so obsessed with us being 'obsessed' you need to keep commenting.

This has SI Riley's interview at the scene, although in another article, LEN has both 40 and 60 officers mentioned so it may be a mistake!

Lancashire Evening News 8 Feb

There isn’t really a standard way to react and nobody knows how they are going to react even if they think they do.
I don’t really think we should be dissecting the behaviour of someone who has been thrown into the limelight they didn’t want in horrific circumstances. That should absolutely be a no go area. He didn’t ask for this.