What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

I think this is why Brexit makes me so angry. There are some very serious and significant problems that it brings, which no one on the leave side seems able to even accept as being all but impossible to resolve, let alone offer any realistic resolutions to themselves. It's so arrogant, to vote for something, to refuse to accept that in doing so they have created some absolutely disastrous situations, and to deny that it is their responsibility to bloody well come up with the solutions to the problems they have caused. "You lost get over it, bloody whinging remoaners, stop talking Britain and Brexit down, it's all the EU's fault, let's just walk away, it's not up to us to deal with any of this". Sick to death of hearing shite like this. The people of Northern Ireland and Ireland are facing a catastrophe they didn't vote for, how the hell those who did vote for it can't accept it's their responsibility to clear up their own mess appals me.

Yes, this:

'So what is the Irish government supposed to do? What happens with the border is a vital national interest. Ireland is desperate to hear what Britain has in mind. Instead, it has been told not to worry its pretty little head about it, but trust in the reassurances of its betters. It is being placed in the position of a 1950s wife, whose husband is betting the house on a horse race while he tells her, with increasingly irritation, to stop worrying because the nag is sure to romp home.

Behind this reckless arrogance, there is an assumption that Ireland is an eccentric little offshoot of Britain that must shut its gob and stop asking awkward questions. It is, in fact, a sovereign country with the full backing of 26 other EU member states – and how strange it is that we have reached a point where this comes as an unpleasant surprise to so many people in London.'

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/26/hard-won-kinship-between-britain-and-ireland-brexit-idiocy?CMP=share_btn_fb

humps no I voted remain.

There is no answer and this has been blatantly obvious since before the referendum.

What I find terrifying is that

There is no answer
So negotiations in Brussels cannot progress
So the UK will crash out of the EU with nothing in place

WTF happens with the border then?

Some people really have no clue.

Why should Ireland or the EU go to the trouble or expense of putting up and operating a border? It's the British who want to leave Europe, who want to restrict movement of people and goods, therefore they should be paying.

Are British people really as naive as Reese-Moggs seems to think they are? Do they really believe what he and other British politicians are saying?

Ireland (not Eire, thank you very much) aren't "making demands", we are stating facts.

Maursh "Without a border there would be nothing in law to stop the UK making a trade agreement with a non-EU country that is incompatible with EU regulations, then that Non-EU country could entirely legitimately import into NI and then send their product south by the truckload not only to Eire but also to every other EU country with no checks being made."

Really? Do people really believe this crap? Post-Brexit UK wants free movement of goods, but not free movement of people. An open border might let goods across (though which way they will go is questionable), but it will also let through people, which will have all the Brexiteers frothing.

My assigned Probabilities for various outcomes

25%, stated agreement to stay in single market after all, promise to try to change in future (never happens)
25% collapse of May-DUP coalition in next 10 months, fresh elections
25% crash of UK out of EU with no deal, followed by future very bad deal
22.25% promise to sort it out during the 'transition period'; never gets sorted out, "transition period" lasts forever (implicit agreement to stay in single market forever)
1.5% plan to create hard border between NI & GB
1% UK withdraws from Brexit
0.25% Plan to federate NI with ROI, NI stays in EU with ROI

Are British people really as naive as Reese-Moggs seems to think they are? Do they really believe what he and other British politicians are saying?

It seems to me there are a lot of British people who when faced with the reality of what they have voted for, take the Boris Johnson approach to bad news. "Lalala I can't hear you."

Are British people really as naive as Reese-Moggs seems to think they are? Do they really believe what he and other British politicians are saying?

Yes, some definitely are. It's the Boris/ Trump effect again, "silly man and all his gaffawing, we like him, he's not like the others".

Reality is they're far more dangerous than the others.

It's weird, isn't it. I had a conversation with a relative recently that went along the lines of:

Her: Brexit will be great, we can get back to being British (she's an emigrant from Ireland by the way but that's another story)
Me: It's a bit of a pain that it'll be harder for us to visit/my kids to work in London etc
Her: Oh, it won't affect Irish people

Her: Brexit will be great, we'll be able to import/export to all sorts of countries and things will be much cheaper
Me: But at the moment Britain only has trade deals with a few countries, when are new ones going to be sorted out?
Her: It'll be fine, we can trade with the Commonwealth. And anyway Europe will have to give us a good deal on trade because they are much more dependent on us than we are on them
Me:

Me: What about the Irish border?
Her: What about the Irish border? There doesn't have to be an Irish border, I don't know why the Irish government is being so ridiculous about it, we don't mind Irish people over here
Me: [baffled][furious]

Sadly she is an ancient relative and I'm not allowed to tell her to grow the fuck up.

Just a thought for those more knowledgeable. Could NI become independent? Either as a completely independent country or a crown dependency or overseas territory?

I'm thinking that the Isle of man isn't in the EU but does have trade, not entirely sure of the details, I know there are concerns about Brexit something they did not get to vote in. Jersey and Guernsey are, I believe, in a similar situation.

Just a thought for those more knowledgeable. Could NI become independent? Either as a completely independent country or a crown dependency or overseas territory?

The easiest solution would be for England and Wales to secede from the UK. That way Scotland and NI would be the UK, and could remain in the EU, while England and Wales to off on their own.

It seems to me... UK immigration policy is enforced by employers and govt. service providers, and long has been. That isn't going to change.
So letting people stroll across the NI border and onto ferries to GB is irrelevant, in practice, to UK.

The problem is GOODS and taxes and production quality standards. Letting UK export stuff with no barriers into ROI & then letting ROI export that into EU is a huge problem. EU can't have it.

Apparently HM govt. doesn't mind EU things coming into UK with no trade barriers and no checks on standards & quality. Official plan is pretty relaxed about this.

I wonder if the EU could take the UK to court over this?

As far as I can see the UK government is deliberately destroying a treaty they were signatory too, in a way that is inevitably going to lead to violence. Can Brexit, or at least a hard Brexit be blocked for this reason?

I read that UK or ROI can take each other to task about violations of the GFA. I don't see that EU (or USA) has a direct arbitrator role.

It is one of the many serious problems we have if we want to up root ourselves from a system that has roots deep into every part our system. I really dont have a cleaver solution in terms of hard Brexit or no trade agreement. Without a trade agreement or customs union I can only assume a costly hard boarder.

Sorry, that should have said Ireland. Although potentially the EU may have an interest to as the UK is forcing the EU to either put a border in place (causing violence) or not put an order in place (undermining the entire EU project)

llijkk, I don't believe the UK government is actually relaxed over this. I think they are just saying they are.

At the moment the UK imports much more from the EU than it exports fullfact.org/europe/uk-trade-deficit-eu/ While it might appear easy to import limited amounts of goods via Ireland, transport costs will push up prices. From an EU point of view even if the UK manages to export via NI and Ireland there will be an issue at the point of sale with EU countries treating EU origin goods more favourably.

But I believe this is more about movement of people than the UK government and all the Leave voters are willing to admit. If it turns out that a lot of immigrants use Ireland as an access point to the UK, all hell will break loose.

I'm with JRM, Maursh & julie8008 on this.

The UK doesn't need or want to erect a border.
It's the EU that are desperate for a border.

I think lljkk's probability list is about right [sigh] - though the "promise to sort it out, fudge it, never sort it out" percentage probability is rising. As is the "May's government falls, new election" probability.

I wonder what would happen if one of the major UK parties went to the polls with the promise of a new Brexit referendum. They could justify it by saying "this is the Brexit we are proposing, have your say".

Though I still think my suggestion of rebuilding Hadrian's Wall show real promise

I wonder if it would be worth the ROI publicly decided to look into joining the Schengen Agreement if the UK government don't start playing ball?

It would be worth it just to see the look on the face of the likes of Boris having promised an open border and then to realise there are 400 million people on the other side with a right to cross over.

The UK doesn't need or want to erect a border. It's the EU that are desperate for a border.

So, forgive me if I'm being stupid, but if the UK doesn't need or want to control its borders, what was all the rhetoric in the referendum about? Do people no longer care about immigration after all?

I guess the anti-migrant propaganda has served its purpose now. Time to move on.

BrokenBiscuit - NI & Ireland are not the Calais Jungle, and I don't see that happening tbh.

The only people I see talking about an Ireland/NI border to control movement of people, and about 'Leavers being furious at the lack of control of borders' are remain voters 'imagining' what Leave voters think about it all.

Why Faith?

You can't just make the statement "the UK doesn't want a border". If the UK doesn't have a border with Ireland, it can't have a border with the EU at all, so full free movement of goods and services at every point.

What's the point of Brexit then?

Michael Barnier sums it up here:

“The UK wants the EU to suspend the application of its laws, its Customs Union, and its Single Market at what will be a new external border of the EU. And the UK wants to use Ireland as a kind of test case for the future EU-UK customs relations. This will not happen.”

If I thought May's government knew what they were doing I'd be very worried. However, I don't believe for a minute they have any idea what the outcome should be which makes me simultaneously feel rather sorry for them and furious at their stupidity.