What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

I think there are some hardcore Brexiteers that genuinely believe Ireland is going to exit the EU too. Why they would want to leave a union that they are active members of, who look after their interests and give them a voice to join sides with the UK government who have already shown they don't give two hoots about Irish interests is beyond me.

JR-M's pathetic argument given above is precisely what I fear the UK government approach will be. Sadly, the government can't quite seem to grasp that if you choose to leave a single market and customs union, you can't then expect them to just leave part of it open with no customs border. Then it wouldn't be a single market. We are the ones who no longer want to be part of it, so we are the ones who must come up with the solution.

The only solution that makes sense is to stay in the EEA. From what I have read, the decision to leave the single market and customs union was a decision taken solely by TM on the instruction of Nick Timothy. Why should one man, who isn't even part of the government, get to be responsible for such an enormous decision?

Maursh, that's not a solution.

That is a very silly man preaching to a choir full of equally silly people who think they can pull up the drawbridge and pretend the rest of the world isn't there while running around with their fingers in their ears singing 'lalalalalalala'.

Thanks curragh and math.

And the people that actually live here don't even get a say. NI people voted remain .

So all we need to worry about is the smuggling of “Just a few hundred-weight of beef”?? JR-M Wtf???

So did we (Scotland) Mumguilt but that doesn’t matter as far as Westminster is concerned.

Jacob RM's solution is ridiculous. This isn't about beef.

Without a border there would be nothing in law to stop the UK making a trade agreement with a non-EU country that is incompatible with EU regulations, then that Non-EU country could entirely legitimately import into NI and then send their product south by the truckload not only to Eire but also to every other EU country with no checks being made.

It's very unfair! -stampingmyfoot-

most smooth solution would be for Northern Ireland to join the Republic

Yup, the loyalist paramilitaries would love that, no risk of bloodshed there at all

And the Irish government haven't suddenly decided to play hardball. The governments under both Varadkar and Kenny have been saying the same thing since the referendum was called. It's just that the British politicians and media are only suddenly noticing now that Ireland looks like it will have to use its veto next month. They seem astonished that Ireland isn't just rolling over and doing what they're told.

Man, I'm sick of seeing the same faces explaining the same basic facts about the border (and indeed Ireland in general) on these threads. Worse still, I suspect the same willful cluelessness abounds in the cabinet.

I'd like to say thanks so much to those who voted Leave for this beautiful mess.
That aside, what is particularly bad here is the complete pointlessness of the two major parties is NI, who are baying from the sidelines but aren't doing anything constructive because they can't get past their own differences to do something to save the people they represent and then they whine that the Westminster government needs to step in and fix it for them. No guys, you're elected, we pay you, speak up and represent your people.

The only thing that makes sense is a special status for NI, but the DUP has its head so far up its enormous arse that it won't accept it.

I suspect the problem will be 'kicked into the long grass" by the UK government, with some fudge about sorting out the border post 2019. The obvious problem with that is with an open border between the UK and the EU, be it only in Ireland, the Brexiteers will be foaming at the mouth as companies and organisations use it to import/export goods, services and people in and out of the UK.
Don't forget there is also a similar, but much smaller, problem with the border between Gibraltar (who voted overwhelmingly to remain) and the EU.
It's a mess, and just goes to show how both sides of the debate last year hadn't thought through the consequences, merely settling with sound-bite rants that unfortunately were the only source of information for the vast majority of people who had a vote. But then we are shown people on TV today saying we should 'just walk away from the EU', clearly without one iota of sense about what that entails.

Eire?
Making demands?
Yes, Ireland insisted only two weeks ago that the border was agreed before trade talks - I think making demands covers it.

The UK can't just cherry pick which international agreements it will abide by and which it will throw overboard when the fancy takes it.
I am not sure which agreement(s) you are referring to. But it is a country's choice whether it puts a border in place, not an agreements, and for what it's worth the UK / Eire have had an open border arrangement in place since 1921 - it is the EU (and Eire) who are trying to renege on this

Jacob RM's solution is ridiculous. This isn't about beef.
You are right - the comment has nothing to do with beef

Without a border there would be nothing in law to stop the UK making a trade agreement with a non-EU country that is incompatible with EU regulations, then that Non-EU country could entirely legitimately import into NI and then send their product south by the truckload not only to Eire but also to every other EU country with no checks being made.
And the UK would be concerned about this because.....?
The irish border is an EU problem, not one for the UK that is JRM's point and you have just reinforced it

just goes to show how both sides of the debate last year hadn't thought through the consequences,

Yes, Cameron is a twat, yes, the remain campaign was poor, but ultimately leave voters voted for this mess.

If on further consideration, they have sensibly changed their minds, then they should stand up and say that and not keep trying to abdicate responsibility.

Yes, Ireland insisted only two weeks ago that the border was agreed before trade talks - I think making demands covers it.

Seriously?! This has been one of the three key things that need to be agreed before phase 2 since day 1. Along with citizens' rights and the exit bill. All along, not two weeks ago.

The UK government seems to think that just because sufficient progress may have been made on the other two items, the EU and Ireland will conveniently forget the border issue, which is funnily enough the hardest to solve. All Ireland, backed by the EU, have said is that that isn't going to happen.

How on earth could you only have an open border between Ireland and NI and not between the rest of the UK and Europe? Do people think Brexiteers would settle for that, with their dog whistle calls about immigration?

Wouldn’t it have been nice if all of this debate and thinking had been done before Cameron called the referendum? Why on earth was it ok to call a referendum when nobody had a clue what the definition of Brexit would actually be.

I see that it's being set up by JRM and others to blame the 27 for the border, as if us LEAVING involved no change at all.

One of the numerous issues with Eurosceptic writing has been that for decades they have written about 'the Eu' and 'Britain' as if they are two separate things (and as if Britain exists in any legal former - it doesn't but it allows us to forget the complications of being the UK). They have just pretended that EU membership doesn't exist. So Leaving is just the recognition of reality, no change needed.

it is a country's choice whether it puts a border in place, not an agreements
Wrong. The UK signed the Single European Act, which enshrined the principles of free movement of goods, capital, services, and labour. We are still a member of the EU, so we obliged to follow it. Sorting out the border in Ireland is part of the brexit negotiations, something the UK is definitely party to. Post Brexit, Ireland will still be obliged to maintain the EU border with the UK, so not surprisingly, they have an interest in how that border will operate. Unless we go for some kind of DMZ, that border will need to be agreed by the UK, Ireland and the EU.

Do people think Brexiteers would settle for that, with their dog whistle calls about immigration?

Honestly, I think a large part of this is because they don't really see the Irish as immigrants. Sure we're white and speak English, not like those ones.

Plus the right of Irish people to be in the UK won't be changed by Brexit anyway.

They just can't see the logic that a border isn't needed to control the movement of Irish or British people, it's needed for people of other nationalities (the bad foreigners), trade etc.

What I'm seeing is that some people don't seem to realise that NI is part of the UK. And that they think the EU has some responsibility for borders between nation states. I don't think (please correct me if I'm wrong!) this is part of the EU's remit? How can Leavers not be bothered about a border between the EU and the UK when a whole heap of Leavers wanted to end freedom of movement of workers?! I may be completely wrong but this is doublethink, surely?

'Plus the right of Irish people to be in the UK won't be changed by Brexit anyway.'

This isn't as clear as all that - while we all assume that there'll be some equivalent of the 1949 Ireland Act there are some challenges in practice:

sluggerotoole.com/2017/05/08/so-far-after-brexit-british-and-irish-citizens-rights-are-not-yet-guaranteed-interchangeable-rights-for-all-should-be-the-aim/

Under WTO non-discrimination rules, after Brexit
if the EU allow trade without physical checks on goods with the UK, then they would have to allow the other 160 or so countries in the world to have a comparable arrangement

Even if there is an EU-UK trade deal that specifies no physical checks on NI goods, then other countries that have EU trade deals could demand the same
⁃ this is because international trade deals often give "most Favoured Nation" status,
⁃ which means that they are entitled to any better terms that another country gains in a later trade deal

Maursh The UK can't just cherry pick which international agreements it will abide by and which it will throw overboard when the fancy takes it
I am not sure which agreement(s) you are referring to

The Good Friday Agreement (between UK and ROI) to end the 'troubles'in NI. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_Friday_Agreement. It is still quite important in keeping the peace ...

This isn't as clear as all that - while we all assume that there'll be some equivalent of the 1949 Ireland Act there are some challenges in practice:

Sshhhhh, that's my own personal zone of denial.