What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

It's virtually impossible to resolve. No one gave any serious thought to what would happen with the Irish border.

I think we will just have to call the EU's bluff. By doing/not doing what?

I do blame Cameron and his cronies, for being irresponsible enough to hold the referendum in the first place, and I blame the idiots who voted to leave without thinking properly about the consequences.

It sadly always, always comes back to this.

Surprisingly enough I think that the neater, most smooth solution would be for Northern Ireland to join the Republic. It might have happened anyway in a decade or so - Sinn Fein get a good majority and call a referendum etc.

I wonder how this makes the "the-EU-is-on-the-brink-of-collapse" brigade feel.

What I would like to see happen is Scotland to stand up and say "enough", to get together with NI, and make the English/Scottish border the EU border.

Let's rebuild Hadrian's Wall.

AndhowcouldIeverrefuse, no thank you. I don't want Arlene Foster or any of her minions on this side of the border, thank you very much. You can keep them!

I think we will just have to call the EU's bluff. I don't get the bluff thing, either. It's the UK that needs to decide if it wants a hard Brexit or not. If it does it has to apply to all borders. Why does our government have so much trouble understanding this?

Thinking about Cameron, I don't think it's fair to blame him for this particular outcome. At the time of the referendum most pro-Brexit campaigners were going on about the Norway model. This has got May's government written all over it - the stubbornness, the lack of understanding, the xenophobia etc.

most smooth solution would be for Northern Ireland to join the Republic

LOL, guess someones never lived in either the north or the south.

Just my opinion Julie! Remember I said "surprisingly enough" I think this solution might be simpler in that it wouldn't involve the EU. However I cannot see that any satisfactory solution at all will be achieved before Brexit day.

I think it might be simpler for May and the Conservatives, Andhowcould, because they could bumble along pretending that the Irish border isn't a real problem, or if it is it'll sort itself out, and if it doesn't it's someone else's fault, etc, etc. In fact I think a lot of UK politicians would quite like to be rid of the North and all the problems it brings (though May's acceptance of and payment for DUP support is a bit ).

But it wouldn't be simpler for Ireland, not at the moment. In fact, over the years, although there is a sort of Nationalist vibe in Ireland that means outsiders might think we are all in favour of reunification, when push actually comes to shove most of us (North and South) realise that said unification would bring massive problems, both financial and from the point of view of security/policing, not to mention the very different attitudes of most of the populations of the two countries.

Ireland isn't in the best of places atm to deal with all the expense and hassle reunification could bring. Even if the DUP would countenance it, which I can't see happening at all, ever.

Julie. Presumably if you voted Brexit it was because you agreed with the “ getting control of our borders”
If, as you suggest “ no border between ROI and NI” then free movement of goods and people will continue. It’s not just the EU that wants a border.

I missed Julie's "solution".

That's a great idea. No border. Free movement of people. Excellent

Now what was Brexit all about again?

Most Brexiteers didn’t think through anything that might happen after a Leave vote. The NI border has no good solution. I was in Letterkenny just before the referendum. This is what everyone was worried about.

Sorry you might not like it but yes Brexiteers are quite relaxed about having a soft border with ROI. Let the EU put up a hard one if they want but we wont be.

Controlling our borders means we get to chose and thats my choice.

If there is a soft border between ROI and NI and no controls at all between NI and the rest of the UK then we will have de facto no border control between the EU and the UK and no control over our borders for goods or people.

A lack of border like that will be exploited to the detriment of both sides if there isn't regulatory union between the UK and the EU. Without such union and different regulatory regimes either side, every industry will calculate which regime it is cheaper to operate in and will seek ways to locate processes in the cheaper-to-obey regime and make sales in the other regime, unbalacing both economies with unfair trade. It simply cannot work without a free trade agreement that ties regulatory regimes together.

Were you a leave voter then op?

David Cameron is a twat. The referendum was poorly thought out but this problem is created by the Brexit vote. Obviously. We would not need to be discussing this if a few more people voted remain.

A federal republic might circumvent the issues that would arise if a united Ireland ever came about.

Or a unitary state could develop a true progressive v. conservative political dynamic. The old political divisions in Ireland are pretty much dead anyway. The DUP could find themselves at home with conservative elements and SF could hop into bed with progressives.

Julie, sorry to bust your bubble, but you only get to choose whether to have a border and what sort of border you will have when you don't share a border with anyone else, i.e. when you are an island, which the UK is not. There are two sides to every land border and the people on the other side have to be taken into account. The referendum didn't offer a vote on whether to completely ignore reality and proceed as if other countries were irrelevant.

And I agree reunification is going to happen - even if the Tories repudiate the GFA and there is no more appeal to the clauses there allowing a vote on the destiny of NI, the example of Brexit has given hope that a referendum could settle things anyway. Sauce for the goose, sauce for the gander, etc.

I would think that most political parties in Ireland are already preparing for that eventuality. I read a while back that FF were putting out feelers about organising in NI.

Observer editorial today:

www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/26/observer-view-on-irish-border-farce-and-brexit?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Facebook

This is the best solution that I heard, doubt that the Government will follow it, unfortunately:

“I don’t care if a few hundredweight of beef is smuggled across the Irish border. It will make no odds to the British economy. We have no obligation to put any border up. Full stop. Challenge the EU to do it. I just don’t believe that they will, and I don’t believe that the Irish will agree to them doing it.”
Jacob Rees-Mogg (1st Oct 2017 - ie before Eire started making demands)

I don't think the British government give a damn about us or the consequences of a hard border.

@numbsnet, genuine question, if NI joined ROI would the DUP end up in the Dail? Wouldn't they have such a minority in the that they would have no ministers voted in?

Forgive me if I have the wrong end of the stick but the people who voted leave did so to stop the influx of people? If we don’t have the hard boarder then we can’t can we? Because people can land in Eire and then stroll into the north? Or have I got this wrong - bad night sleep and general lack of intelligence.

Well you see now leave voters like to pretend their vote had absolutely nothing to do with borders or immigrants and how very dare you?

Mumguilt if a united ireland comes about then yes the DUP will certainly have some TDs (equivalent of MPs) due to the Irish system of proportional representation. However it is unlikely they would be in government / be ministers for the foreseeable future

Eire?
Making demands?

Ireland wants to see the co-signatory to the GFA upholding the agreement. The UK can't just cherry pick which international agreements it will abide by and which it will throw overboard when the fancy takes it.

Wouldn't they have such a minority in the that they would have no ministers voted in?

They would have TDs due to proportional representation. In order to participate in government at ministerial level they would have to form part of a coalition, since they have limited appeal outside of the NE corner of the island.

This whole debate proves how little the UK government, leave campaign and those who voted leave even considered NI and the impact it would have.
A hard border between NI/Ireland would bring back a lot of horrible memories for many, reunification is never going to happen (has everyone forgotten the Troubles?), and the Tories couldn’t give a shiny shite about what is best they got into bed with the DUP to cling to power for anyone.

Lovely, more divisions, more anger and more Westminster not considering all angles before diving in headfirst.