What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

Aparently we have spent £300 million pounds every week on brexit related issues since the referendum and have virtually nothing to show for it. Very late in the day some people are beginning to see problems which were obvious to others before the vote. There is a good solution. Forget brexit. Exit brexit. Remain in the EU. Just because a quarter of the popultion sais on one day in 2016 that they wanted to leave, it does not mean we should acquiesce in blighting the future of our children and grandchildren.

The rest of the UK are not at risk of violence or a hard border.

WTF? It's so depressing to see this sort of shit. "The Troubles" were awful for many people in NI with thousands killed. But the idea it was just isolated is astonishing. Leaving aside the emotional trauma to friends and relatives, it spread to ROI and the UK, and elsewhere.

People were being killed (and still are with the aftermath of gang-warfare) in the UK and NI in the late 90s. What were all the brexit voters doing at the time, ignoring the news and sticking their heads up their arse?

LivLemler, NI goods (those produced in NI) could theoretically be a "special case" for customs purposes. They would be subject to checks, but could be exempt from certain taxes.

Is that allowed under WTO rules though? I'm pretty sure it wouldn't if NI and GB were different countries, that's why it's so important a deal is made. But I don't know whether NI and GB being the same country (if not the same customs union) would ease that.

I don't know for sure, Liv, but if the EU are talking about making special exemptions for NI I presume this is the type of thing they would be considering. It's been shot down by May though.

We are really talking in a vacuum here; in the absence of any suggestion at all by the British government of what they want to do, and the immediate refusal to consider anything anyone else suggestions, it's all a bit up in the air [understatement]

Ifailed, there is absolutely no comparison between the effects of the violence on the people of NI and the rest of the UK. Obviously the deaths in Ireland and on the mainland were appalling, as is/was the after effects of smuggling, gangs, etc. But the violence in the North affected every single second of every single day for years. There isn't a person living there, I bet, who doesn't have personal experience of violence, who doesn't know at least one person who died or was serious injured.

It's relatively easy for those living on the mainland to not worry too much about violence in NI. Hence their ability to dismiss worries over border issues, and just tell themselves it's "an Irish problem".

Maybe I should have said "in comparison to the risk in NI itself, the rest of the UK is at very little risk of violence" - but I thought that point was obvious

The issue is the cross border trade in GOODS. Movement of people is freely allowed to Irish and UK citizens under the Common Travel Area agreement, which predates the EU. That won't change.

So at the moment anyone who has a visa to enter either UK, or Ireland can theoretically cross the NI border and enter Ireland or NI/UK anyway with no checks. Can't they? So what's the big deal on Brexit affecting unlawful immigration.

Anyway it is looking like an agreement will be reached based on a common agreed "regulatory" framework for goods. At least that is what Leo Varadker and the Foreign Minister Coveney are mooting. Not much chatter coming from the UK side on this, but that is not surprising.

The Irish Government is (I hope) playing hard ball here. Read this....

www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/brexit-coveney-says-border-breakthrough-doable-but-flexibility-needed-1.3312032

There is a reason why the prevalence of mental health illness is significantly higher in NI to the rest of the UK.

"So what's the big deal on Brexit affecting unlawful immigration" - Britain won't be in the EU any more, surely the problem is obvious?

The FTA predated us joining the EU, but we joined together so it was easy to continue it. Now Ireland will be in the EU, Britain will be outside it, the FTA isn't going to be easy to manage.

cathy, that IT article doesn't actually say anything at all about what is going to happen with the border - again, I don't think anyone has come up with a solution at all. The "flexibility" he's referring to must, surely, be in relation to NI being given special status, something May has rejected.

'The rest of the UK are not at risk of violence or a hard border.'

This attitude is precisely what will play a big role in the breakup of the UK that may come to follow once this Brexit shit hits the fan.

Maryz

I think you may have misunderstood me. Your points are valid if the CTA ceases to exist, but that is not going to happen.

So, we have CTA between Ireland and UK including NI obviously. My point was that if someone from outside EU, AT THE MOMENT even whilst we are all in the EU together decides to cross the border to either Ireland or UK via the North, they can do so, although I am sure there are spot checks under immigration laws on both sides. Still.

So, when Brexit happens and CTA remains, surely the situation stays the same or am I missing something fundamental.

I think that is why the focus is not so much on People rather it is on the free movement of goods and services back and forth.

he issue is the cross border trade in GOODS. Movement of people is freely allowed to Irish and UK citizens under the Common Travel Area agreement, which predates the EU. That won't change. So at the moment anyone who has a visa to enter either UK, or Ireland can theoretically cross the NI border and enter Ireland or NI/UK anyway with no checks. Can't they? So what's the big deal on Brexit affecting unlawful immigration

EU citizens will be able to cross illegally into the UK from Ireland. Surely that is obvious?

Wasn't the entire point of Brexit for many to "take back control of our borders from the EU"? Why then are so few people interested in your only actual border with the EU?

You voted to leave the EU, but seem to think you can do absolutely nothing about your actual land border with the EU?

Marking place. And despairing.

tiny,

I didn't have a vote in the Brexit referendum. I would have voted Remain, for the record if I had.

Neither did I. It's a general "you" as in the people of the country. Not you specifically.

tiny,

Whew, glad to hear that!

Humps, that's what the Brexit referendum did. They voted no. Well, England did anyway

They could specify customs union this time to make it look different! Surely the only people against a re-ref would be a few foot-stampy brexiteers.

"The issue is the cross border trade in GOODS. Movement of people is freely allowed to Irish and UK citizens under the Common Travel Area agreement, which predates the EU. That won't change." cathyclown says .

She's missing the point. The CTA was fine when neither the UK nor Ireland were in the EU and we have had free movement since then as both countries are in the EU. If the UK is out and Ireland still in, it changes everything.

Any EU citizen (including all these the leavers voted to keep out) will be able to travel freely to Ireland and, unless there is a hard border somewhere, travel on into NI and from there to anywhere else in the UK.

For those who find it unacceptable either to reinstate an Irish border, complete with border guards and customs officials at every one of the hundreds of crossing points, or to have checks on everyone wanting to travel across the Irish Sea, this is the conundrum. Catch 22. You cannot square that circle.

For those of us who are happy to continue to enjoy all the many advantages of EU membership, there is no problem. We should REMAIN IN.

Common Travel Area will stay. It is a fundamental issue and involves UK and Irish citizens only, no one else.

Any tinkering with that and it's no moving on to the next phase at all. Ireland has EU support for this.

But nothing would surprise me anymore.

cathy, you are missing the fact that the CTA can't continue - not without border checks of some sort.

It's all very well to say "UK and Ireland have a reciprocal agreement that their citizens have free travel in both jurisdictions" - but that will still have to be enforced by border checks to stop everyone else travelling.

Otherwise we run the risk of Ireland having to police its borders to stop random EU citizens coming in with the intention of continuing to the UK - something Ireland can't be expected to do - OR the UK policing it's borders to ensure that it's only Irish citizens who are crossing.

It's those border checks that will cause the issue.

How will you enforce the CTA for UK and Irish citizens only without a border, and border checks?

There are no border checks at the moment for non EU are there. How will CTA post Brexit change that. It is happening as we speak. Only difference will be that EU can slip across too post Brexit.

But that's a UK problem not ours. EU citizens are welcome in Ireland including UK citizens under CTA!

There are no border checks, because there are hard borders all around the EU.

Anyone in Ireland or the UK at the moment has had to pass one of those borders, and their permission to do so has been checked by a country that is in the EU. So therefore, once in, they can travel freely - that's the whole point of the EU freedom to travel.

It is a UK problem - hence the UK having to put up a border, either in the Irish sea, or between Ireland and NI.

Back to square one (again). It's a circular argument.

Exactly, that is the UK's problem.

maryz,

It certainly is all round the houses again and again isn't it.

But I am enjoying the thread, it is informative to watch other views on this, even though there is NO solution to be found yet.