What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

Never going to happen. Ireland wouldn't touch it with a bargepole.

And if you think the NI economy is bad now, wait until there are no EU grants propping it up!

On the subject of a NI referendum mentioned above - I do wonder if there is scope for that tbh - in respect to Brexit only (not wrt united Ireland)

Put it to NI:

Stay in EU Customs Union (therefore border with rest of UK for goods only, maintain CTA)

Yes/No

That way, the people of NI get to take ownership and aren't held to ransom by either UK or EU wrt a border within the island of Ireland.

That way, the people of NI get to take ownership and aren't held to ransom by either UK or EU wrt a border within the island of Ireland

But they can't. They ARE the UK, they can't be held to ransom by the UK!

The UK is leaving the EU. One part of the UK can't just decide to stay in the customs union, it doesn't work like that. And anyway, any suggestion of special status for NI has already been shot down, it's not a possibility.

I was under the impression that the EU had proposed that NI could remain a member & Customs border would be sea?
So quite the opposite of 'one part of UK just deciding to stay'.

(Remain a member of customs union, not EU member).

It was mooted, but immediately disregarded as a political impossibility. The DUP would never allow it, amongst other reasons.

I agree that Ireland wouldn't take on NI without compensation.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/apr/27/eu-to-debate-recognising-united-ireland-to-allow-swift-return-for-north

The poll in the article asked the question in Ireland about whether they would vote for unity if it would cost the Irish exchequer 9bnEuro p.a. - a third would vote for, a third would vote against and a third were undecided. However, if the UK agreed to pay the NI deficit for say the next twenty-five years then I think those percentages would change a great deal. The upside for the UK being that there would be an end-point to the drain on their economy.

But it's against the principle of consent in the GFA.

A lot of people say they are for a united Ireland, but they wouldn't actually let it happen. 25 years sounds like a long time but what then? A massive drain on the economy just as my children are inheriting the country? No thanks.

Sadly for the DUP though, they don't get the final say on the deal the UK negotiates with the EU - something which they are very worried about indeed.

The depressing thing is that NI could have a great economy - a highly educated, youthful workforce, great schools, cheap housing etc.

The waste lies in the fact that there is so much duplication in state provision of services because of the religious segregation in so many areas. NI is also severely hampered by a dearth of high-quality individuals willing to work for everyone rather than their 'side'.

But they can jam the gears so much that no deal can be negotiated.

They don't actually have any power and they are even more deluded if they actually think they do.

The result of a NI referendum on staying in the customs union/fta could be interesting.

tinysparklyshoes, special status for NI was mooted and immediately disregarded as a possibility by the DUP and the British government not by anyone else, and since they haven't come up with an alternative it is the only solution on the table.

It is a solution, offered by the EU, that would avoid violence, and would be economically good for the entire island of Ireland.

The EU would be happy with it, Ireland would be happy with it, I bet most of Britain would be happy with it, and the non-unionists in NI would probably be happy with it.

The entire future of Brexit is being held to hostage by about 40% of the electorate of NI (at most about 350,000 voters), or about 7% of the 46.5 million UK electorate (if my maths is correct, which it might not be )

It sort of puts it into perspective doesn't it? May can pander to the 10 DUP MPs, and a couple of hundred thousand people and have Brexit grind to a halt. Or ignore them, push ahead, come up with an agreement that will suit everyone else.

I agree Maryz and the DUP's support base dwindles further as every year passes, due to the ongoing demographic changes in NI as a result of the historic, higher birth rate amongst the younger Catholic population.

Its not fair that NI would get a crack at the 'remain in a customs union' question when the rest of us don't.

I've been talking about this to quite a few people. I'm the most moderate kind of N Ireland unionist. I don't identify though with the DUP or even with the more moderate Ulster Unionists. I can't bear the 'it's all the other side's fault' mentality. I've never been supportive of violence and I believe strongly that the behaviour of the army here was a disgrace a lot of the time. But still, ultimately I'm a unionist because I want to be part of the UK, I want the NHS and the lower cost of living.

There are loads and loads of people like me in N Ireland. We're not 'loyalists', we don't have an obsession with marching and flags, and we don't see ourselves as superior. But there would be utter fury amongst people like me if we were to find ourselves in a position of needing a passport to travel to the rest of the UK. Is it even legal to restrict the travel rights of citizens within their own country?

If I feel this angry about the prospect of it, I can scarcely bring myself to imagine what sort of resentment it might cause to people who support the DUP, and the even more dodgy parties.

Much as a border in the Irish sea would be the easiest option for me, and perhaps the easiest option to work out, I don't think it would necessarily be economically good for NI. Surely that would involve tariffs on goods going to/from GB. NI does more trade with GB than ROI.

But of course a land border doesn't work either.

Treacle I think that's a perfectly understandable position and I worry that the craziness of the DUP means perfectly reasonable, small u unionists like you get sidelined too often in these discussions.

Basically, whatever option I consider, I reach the same one word conclusion - fucked.

Its not fair that NI would get a crack at the 'remain in a customs union' question when the rest of us don't.

That's just as foot-stampy as the DUP's position at the moment though tbh.

The rest of the UK are not at risk of violence or a hard border.

But Humps, you (and by you I mean a collective you, a majority of the British electorate) voted to leave it. I respect you personally probably didn't, but complaining "it's not fair" holds no political sway.

I respect that view, treacle, and I think it's people like you who are being thrown under the bus. Along with the middle-ground "nationalists" - those who live in the North, know it's part of the UK but have a sneaking feeling that they are "Irish" too and would be horrified at having to produce a passport at a land boarder.

Trouble is, any solution is chucking you all under the bus; a passport to cross the sea, or a passport to go south, both ways are completely unacceptable to a population that has taken a bashing from all sides for the last hundred years.

The reason I think "a passport to cross the sea" might be the outcome (and I'm not saying it's the right one, I'm saying it's a possible one) is that most people need a passport to cross anyway - all airlines and most ships need identification and for most people that's a passport. Doing it that way is more practical, and the trouble it would cause is less obvious, if you get my meaning?

LivLemler, NI goods (those produced in NI) could theoretically be a "special case" for customs purposes. They would be subject to checks, but could be exempt from certain taxes.

I have no idea how it would work. I'm looking at this purely theoretically; if I lived in NI I'd be fucking furious with everyone.

There doesn't really need to be a passport to cross though does there?

Ireland is not in schengen, and there's no reason for the CTA not to continue.

Wrt NI paying tariffs - why? It's still part of UK so no tariffs reqd.
The only reason for the border is to check goods going into & out of the Ireland of island (assuming NI remains in customs union).

It sort of puts it into perspective doesn't it? May can pander to the 10 DUP MPs, and a couple of hundred thousand people and have Brexit grind to a halt. Or ignore them, push ahead, come up with an agreement that will suit everyone else

Except if they ignore the DUP then they walk, and the government collapses. Maybe a new bunch force it through but what then happens to the GFA? What happens actually in NI?
Nothing good, that's what. What happens in Northern Ireland when the British parliament ignores them and pushes through legislation that pisses on half of the population?

Why not ask the whole of the uk if they want to remain in the customs union then?

Faith, that wouldn't work, because there is free travel from the EU to Ireland, there would be free travel from Ireland to NI, you are proposing no passport check from Ireland to UK, that means, effectively, free travel for all EU citizens into the UK. The British government can't be seen to allow that.

yy tiny, all hell breaks loose. Possibly not as badly as it will if they enforce a hard border, though. But it's looking hellish either way.

Humps, that's what the Brexit referendum did. They voted no. Well, England did anyway.