What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

Have you seen the coastline? A huge amount is uninhabited rural areas - yes people could easily just sail up 😂😂😂

Can someone tell me what it means if the Irish government veto?

Like, this is their fodder, this is their raison d'etre almost. I don't understand the silence from SF at all at all. Then again, I guess, from their standing, they would be looking at a united Ireland. I think they are keeping quiet until it looks like a more likely solution. Would love to know why they are so quiet about this.

As far as I know, they can't move onto trade talks if Varadkar vetoes this stage (1). Not too knowledgeable. Where is Maryz and Math when you need them.

We could infiltrate them GardenGeek and have the latest models....

Whether you like them or not the DUP represent the majority of people in NI. No one wants a border so no need to have one. The EU have got a promise of the bung they wanted so its all mostly sorted. All this hand wringing is completely unnecessary.

Sinn Fein are quiet for two reasons. Firstly, they actually have no power - they are not in a majority in either the North or in Ireland.

If Britain goes with a hard Brexit and a hard border they won't stay quiet for long.

The reason Ian Paisley and Arlene Foster are getting so incensed is, I think, because they can see the writing on the wall and know that given a choice between a trade deal with the EU and pandering to the DUP, in the end May will have to go with the EU.

I suspect there are frantic negotiations going on behind the scenes between May's and Foster's teams which is why the DUP are getting more vocal and more desperate.

If May wants to go with a land border, Varadkar will hold the line and veto moving on to the next stage.

He has to; this is his only chance of a veto.

Of course May can go ahead anyway, put in a border, but it leave a Brexit with no "deal" so no interim trade, no temporary measures, Britain will leave, just like that, at the beginning of 2019 (I think).

Many Brexiters would be happy with that. Goody, they'd say as they rubbed their hands in glee, we are well shot of that EU crowd. They don't realise that it will be years before they can get advantageous trade deals with other countries (they can get shitty ones straight away, but good ones will take time and negotiating skills, neither of which the British government seem to have atm).

Oh great, Julie is back talking bollocks again. What bung? Where?

No border? Ok, great, free movement of people and goods, free trade, yippee. Brexiters won't be happy, but who cares, the UK can just stay in the EU.

Whoever asked about an ocean. Yes, quite, there is an ocean, let't put the border there.

Oh no, we can't because the DUP won't have it, so they will hang May out to dry and there will be a general election and we are back to square one.

I know it's a long thread, but how many times do we have to explain this?

So if he veto's it, they can proceed?

Just to clarify there is a land border and the Irish Sea between Ireland and the UK. No ocean involved.

GardenGeek
Ireland/ NI is surrounded by an ocean. Its not like people and goods can just magically appear there - they have to leave somewhere with a border or arrive somewhere with a border surely

That's really funny considering all the weapons and hundreds of lbs of explosives for both sides that have found their way to NI over the course of the last 120 years.

No, if Varadkar vetos, they can't move on to discussion of trade etc because "not enough progress has been made on ..." the issues in strand 1. To be fair to Varadkar, he's trying hard to avoid the veto and doesn't actually think he will need to use it (because all the other European countries will also object to moving on).

More than anyone else, Ireland wants consensus. But unless the British come up with some sort of suggestion on the border issue - any suggestion at all at this stage would be good - how can we just go along with everything else?

Let me know, by the way, if you can't see the Irish Times links; mostly they are covered elsewhere and I know sometimes the IT hides behind a paywall.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/sunday-life/loyalist-jim-bimbo-wilson-has-teeth-kicked-out-in-belfast-club-as-drunk-uda-thugs-go-on-rampage-36330263.html

("...how very different from the home life of our own dear Queen".)

The Remembrance Sunday brawl will raise further questions about the east Belfast UDA's cosy relationship with the DUP.

Although up to its neck in criminality, the terror gang enjoys a close working relationship with the party.

This continues despite it being proved the UDA is involved in drug dealing, extortion, money-lending and violent assaults like that on the Wilsons last weekend.

Sources in the terror gang claim its east Belfast boss 'Millions' Birch wants to maintain his working relationship with the DUP "at all costs".

"Birchy will be furious when he finds out about exactly what went on in the Welders," said an insider.

"The last thing he wants is confrontation with the east Belfast UVF, which is far bigger than the east Belfast UDA.

"He's also paranoid about the media coverage of his links to the DUP...

Someone should tell Theresa May who these people are.

That link agrees with this thread!

"As tempers between Dublin and London have frayed over the insistence by Ireland and the EU negotiating task force that there has to be progress on the Border before phase two talks can begin, there has been what appears to be a concerted campaign by London to portray Dublin as the villain of the piece, ungrateful for all that the UK has done for us over the years and aggressively upping the talks ante with little regard to the interests of fellow member-states’ interests. And dragging a perhaps reluctant Michel Barnier to places he would rather not go. The tail wagging the dog.

Talk of veto threats usefully develops this narrative – it suggests weakness, “Ireland alone” battling selfishly against the 26, but able to wield, the suggestion is, what is ultimately the undemocratic weapon of the veto."

Some people (extremists on both sides) aren't very nice up north

The vast majority want to get on with their lives, and have been doing so for the best part of 20 years.

It's sad really; dh goes to Belfast a lot, and it's been great not to have to worry about it. For the people who live there, this must be their worst nightmare.

Garden, it's actually quite simple. When Britain leave the EU there has to be a border (there is a border all around the EU to keep up standards with goods and services and to control who comes in and out).

The border could be a land border between Britain and Ireland - but that will piss off everyone on the island of Ireland because it will stop movement north and south and probably lead to at best a recurrence of smuggling and crime, and at worst a resurgence of violence.

To prevent that, the EU has offered to let NI (as a special case) remain within the EU customs union, effectively putting the border in the Irish sea. The DUP object, because that will (as they see it) bring them one step closer to a united Ireland.

May is dependent on the DUP to stay in government. So:

Option 1 - Britain reneges on the Good Friday Agreement, all hell breaks loose.
Option 2 - the DUP vote against May, the government falls.

We need Option 3. I haven't seen one yet.

Maryz
Oh great, Julie is back talking bollocks again. What bung? Where?

Ah Mary, gotta love your sectarian bias.

Julie8008 Thu 30-Nov-17 23:49:00
Whether you like them or not the DUP represent the majority of people in NI. No one wants a border so no need to have one. The EU have got a promise of the bung they wanted so its all mostly sorted. All this hand wringing is completely unnecessary.

The DUP are the public face of a pack of gangsters who get the vote out in areas they control. It's machine politics, not democracy. See my link from the Belfast Telegraph for a slice of East Belfast life. You probably donb't read that particular paper but heyho.

There is a need for an enforced border now that the UK is going to have a land border with the EU. If you didn't want a border, then you shouldn't have voted to leave the EU, and the DUP shouldn't have funneled about £425,000 into the Leave campaign in Britain.

The DUP supported Leave because it was the easiest way to kill the GFA, which was supported by approximately 75% of NI voters. A cynical shot to the foot - they would prefer to play geopolitical games than take care of the interests of people who vote for them, farmers who will now be forced off their land, communities that will go without EU development funds...

The EU and UK are approaching agreement on how much of the money that the UK had previously committed to the EU will now be paid. You can't just leave and take your ball with you. This is not a children's playground.

GardenGeek Its not like people and goods can just magically appear there - they have to leave somewhere with a border or arrive somewhere with a border surely
What am I missing here?

There is a huge difference between a barrier (some sea, a river, a range of mountains) and a border. If there is a border there has to be customs&excise inspecting the goods passing from one area to another and examining the documentation of the people travelling across to ensure that they have the right to be in the place they are travelling to. That takes time and costs money but the only way to avoid it is to have an agreement between the two areas that there will be free trade and free movement of people between the two areas. Having such an agreement in place means you don't need to spend time and money on maintaining the border and the economies on both sides thrive because of this.

Currently it is no more hassle to get a ferry over to France than it is to get a ferry over to the Isle of Wight, or between Belfast and Liverpool. There may be a security check keeping an eye out for explosives and weapons but that is a tiny delay in comparison. Obviously you still have to cross the barrier but there is no queuing after the crossing for border guards to check that you have the authority to transport whatever/whoever you are into the destination area, no lengthy forms or tax/duty to pay on goods - these taxes are obligatory under World Trade Organisation rules unless there is a free trade agreement in place. There is also no need for patrols on land or sea to prevent any crossing that isn't authorised and controlled.

Ireland needs this beneficial arrangement of a free trade agreement with the mainland EU. The UK has absolutely no right to take that away from them.

Northern Ireland needs this both between them and the Republic of Ireland and between them and the rest of the UK. This is a fundamental part of why we have had more than 2 decades of peace in Northern Ireland after decades of there seeming to be no solution. The Good Friday Agreement could not have worked without this as it allowed both sides of those awful years of conflict to achieve a measure of union with the land they identified with, be it the Republic or Ireland or the UK. It meant that conflict could end with neither side being "winner" or "loser" but both sides compromising for peace.

Now whether a border is established between NI and the rest of the UK in the sea, or a land border between the north and south you would be saying to one side or the other "actually guys, you lose, you can no longer have the union you fought for". Obviously that cannot happen.