What do people think is most likely to happen with the Irish/UK border?

[coffeclub]

What is the most likely solution?

How is it possible that brexiteers still won't even admit there is an issue here?

Incredible.

Tens of pages later, the same basic issues are having to be explained again!

The BBC says (apologies, cannot link):

It is not possible to see how the Irish border issue can be resolved after Brexit, the influential group of MPs scrutinising the process has said.

Great So what do we do now?

I despair at the calibre of our politicians. This is the issue at the centre of this mess for me - it gave us Brexit, then a hard Brexit that nobody voted for, and now the very slow realisation of the massive scale of the task and its potentially devastating effects.

I don't think you can say that no one voted for a hard Brexit.

So, in summary, the U.K. is the only country that doesn't have the right to leave the UK.

Wow, those terrorists had more power than even they knew.

I can say that nobody voted for this hard Brexit because it wasn't part of the referendum question.

Twooter, I'll say that no one voted for a hard Brexit, because the definition of Brexit wasn't on the ballot paper.

Some people definitely want a hard Brexit. I don't believe that, if a referendum commission had been set up and information provided to all voters such as 58 independent impact assessments on the different sectors of life in the UK, that the same result would have occurred. A threefold referendum on hard, soft and no Brexit definitely wouldn't have had the same result (of course!) which is why it didn't happen. The UK has been a useful patsy for those who think the EU is a tiresome interference with making money or invading Ukraine.

[arf] at Julie calling me sectarian. If I was (as she thinks) completely unsympathetic to the unionist population of the North I'd be saying an Irish sea border is the answer. I think they are getting the rough end of the stick here (not the DUP, not the loyalists militants, I couldn't give a shite about them, but the ordinary people in the North who have been made promises by the British government, I feel great sympathy for them).

Of course the UK has the right to leave the UK. But with that right come the responsibility to think about all its citizens. The UK government is letting the people of NI down by not thinking ahead. Anyone with any knowledge of Ireland and NI should have seen this coming, but they seem to be a bit surprised by it all

I think everyone who voted for Brexit effectively voted for a hard Brexit, simply because they didn't know what they were voting for (the fault of Cameron et al, obviously). They may not have wanted one when they voted, and they may not want one now, but since it seems there is no alternative that's more than likely what they will get.

The reason I think it's what they'll get is that the negotiators don't seem to be making any conciliatory noises at all, thus implying they are going to wait, do nothing, watch the shit hit the fan in a couple of weeks, and then start blaming everyone else for the cock-up.

At which point they have two choices. 1. A hard border, meaning no decent trade deals and a hard Brexit. 2. A sea border, meaning the DUP will walk out and the government will fall.

The UK government is letting the people of NI down by not thinking ahead. Anyone with any knowledge of Ireland and NI should have seen this coming, but they seem to be a bit surprised by it all

I don't think they are really surprised, Maryz. The impact of Brexit on Ireland was always obvious, and clearly stated in advance.
The real culprits are the Brexshit crew who ignored the issue whenever possible and brushed it aside when challenged. Also the gullible voters who believed the crap on the side of the bus and thought no further.

Whatever government is in power, and whoever is PM, the same intractable problem remains.

All this "Our way or No way" by the Uk government reminded me of this ...https://twitter.com/clairehanna/status/936532516248473600

I don't have a tremendous amount of sympathy for unionist types who voted brexit, actually. What on earth did they think would happen?

I've been berating English brexiteers for not thinking about the volatility of the border and the fragile nature of the peace, so I have to apply the same logic to those who actually live there.

I'm aghast that anyone in NI put xenophobia or some misplaced patriotism in front of their own peace and prosperity.

I suppose so Glad, though I'm not convinced it was "clearly stated in advance" - certainly the "remainer" politicians did a shite job of convincing anyone of anything, and I don't remember it being flagged in the mainstream media as an insolvable problem.

That's true, Laurie. My sympathy is reserved for the a-political type (on both sides) who have sort of been forced to pick a side and are now stuck with it. But yes, anyone who voted Brexit in the North is an idiot. They at least should have seen this coming.

I'm aghast that anyone in NI put xenophobia or some misplaced patriotism in front of their own peace and prosperity.

There is an added element to it. The only area of N Ireland to vote for Brexit was North Antrim, as far as I know. Which is known as the Bible belt. Some evangelical churches were preaching to their congregations, telling them to vote leave and that God would judge, harshly, anyone who didn't. I saw loads of people change their vote from remain to leave on the grounds that they had been told to by their church. It's so much more complex than xenophobia.

The British government have been looking to get shot of NI for many, many years - I'm sure they regret now hanging onto it for the sake of bitterness over losing the rest of Ireland. The DUP have always known this and now see it as a very real possibility that TM will sell them down the river - she wants a deal with the EU more than to hang on to the money-pit that is NI. Hence the DUP's increasingly rabid statements.

Personally I can see her going for the EU deal with support from some of the more moderate Labour MPs as her back-up. The DUP will abstain but I don't think they will force a vote of no confidence because that would be suicide for them with Corbyn in charge.

At this stage I think we would also see a return to significant Loyalist violence (as they would know that it was the end game for them), also with probably no real reciprocation from the IRA as they will play the long game and know that it would not help their cause ultimately.

At this point Sinn Fein will start shouting for a referendum on unity - in the past there actually wasn't widespread support for a United Ireland in the Nationalist community but with the violence then the Nationalists might just change their minds and the population numbers are behind them in the last census .

No scenario looks good for NI sadly.

At this point Sinn Fein will start shouting for a referendum on unity - in the past there actually wasn't widespread support for a United Ireland in the Nationalist community but with the violence then the Nationalists might just change their minds and the population numbers are behind them in the last census.

They'll also need the ROI on side too to make this happen. Which at this point, I'd be surprised if they get because there's not much appetite in the south for a United Ireland, though no one will say that openly.

So for this reason, I think the unionists are safer than they think they are. However, doesn't do anything to solve this mess and as you suggest, lord knows where the fallout will take us.

I saw loads of people change their vote from remain to leave on the grounds that they had been told to by their church. It's so much more complex than xenophobia.

Okay, add misplaced religious fervour to misplaced patriotism.

The leave vote was still something like 44% which I still think is shocking.

Do they need Ireland on side for a referendum? I think they only would if they had an all-island-of-Ireland referendum, something the unionists (and up until now the British government) have absolutely and understandably ruled out.

To have a NI only referendum voting on leaving the UK and/or joining Ireland is another kettle of fish entirely, and something that might happen if May sells NI up the river and agrees to (effectively) an Irish sea border.

I don't think a united Ireland is on the cards atm (neither "side" could afford it), but devolution, and an independent NI is possible.

There will be an appetite should there be considerable violence - I was still there during the Drumcree years and even then there was talk by the Irish government of an armed intervention by them when it looked like NI was about to spiral into civil war.

At this point I would say that you would likely also get a huge injection of global support and funds from the Irish diaspora.

but devolution, and an independent NI is possible.

I can't see us having a functioning government if that happen, it would be anarchy. They'd be so busy refusing to sit down and talk to each other that the health service and education would grind to a halt, the infrastructure would crumble. And the same gobshites would be wringing their hands and blaming each other.

I'm not sure if this has been already posted, but if not then worth a read to see the pressure that the DUP is under in its own demographic.

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2017/jan/21/northern-ireland-an-uncertain-peace

I agree an independent NI would not work, they can't even get the Assembly to work.

In some respects I think a referendum in Northern Ireland would be a great idea!

Referendum questions...

Stay in common travel area ...Yes/No

Stay in customs union....Yes/No

Same Sex Marriage.....Yes/No

Irish Language Act.....Yes/No

Coalition of UUP, AL SDLP if DUP and SF can't/won't.....Yes/No

all sorted in one Referendum

Of course referenda are complicated and subject to judicial reviews and that is not possible but in an ideal world!

but devolution, and an independent NI is possible

I have to disagree. NI can't be independent, it would be bankrupt before it began. It's a money pit, couldn't possibly even begin to support itself as an independent nation.
Which is also the main reason Ireland has zero interest in having the six counties back.

It sounds harsh, but the reality is that nobody wants NI, however the UK has no way of getting rid and NI has no way of being independent, and Ireland is not going to take it on so there is nothing that can be done, brexit or no brexit.

I think Ireland would take it on but they would have to be compensated to do so. They would be under considerable pressure from the American Irish lobby at this point. I also wouldn't rule out UN involvement depending on the security situation.

The compensation could well dwarf anything that the UK ends up paying the EU based on the NI deficit in this article.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/business/news/top-expert-warns-northern-ireland-economy-is-facing-meltdown-28779242.html