Isitmebut
Im frankly amazed that you find my statement that Ukip could not take the UK out of the EU so relavatory.
Anyone with a remote interest in politics knows that the PM in the UK does not act by Presidential decree and therefore in order to hold a referendum legislation has to be put before Parliament and the vote carried. The only way that can happen is a) the Governing party initiates such a proposal or b) it could be initiated via a private members bill.
So youre saying Vote Conservative as they are the only party that will give you a referendum. In effect that is the Conservatives Unique Selling Point (USP). I wonder what would happen to that USP if Labour decided to also offer a referendum?
But thats an aside.
So in order to get this referendum Dave has to achieve an outright majority very unlikely.
Lets suppose he does. The new Parlimanet will sit from May 15 the proposed referendum is in 2017. 2 years to persuade the EU to grant the UK .
But lets suspend reality and actually belief that Dave can persuade our EU partners to agree the changes he requires. Some of those changes will require ratification by the other menbers Parliaments, especially if the change that Dave wants is quite radical (and I hope it is radical). So from the end of negoaitions with the EU to actually getting those changes agree will probably take another 2 or so years based on past treaty amendments as the other menbers Parliaments are not just sitting there waiting to rubber-stamp whatever Dave wants.
So the referendum in 2017 will be asking the UK electorate to decide IN / OUT based on woolley proises from Dave that hes secured agreement to a shed load of EU changes that the other EU members are under no legal obligation to deliver (as the changes are still waiting ratification by their domestic Parliamnets).
What then delay the referendum until all EU members have ratified those changes? Say until 2019? Hes got a good excuse to do that.
Or hold the referendum in 2017 based on woolly promises that he cant deliver but that doesnt really matter because by the time the electorate wake up to the fact that the other EU members wont grant us Daves amendments its now 2019 and guess what its General Election time again folks.
So Dave has managed to keep a lid on the whole EU debacle for yet another Parliamentary term
Probably long enough for the EU to have done even more damage to our country and by which time, based on current net immigration figures, we will have built another 5 cities the size of Southampton to accommodate all the incomers.
So you can see that a vote for the Conservatives is actually a vote for the status quo. Nothing will happen. No action will be taken.
A vote for UKIP is a conviction vote. They are not going to win the next GE. They will not hold the balance of power. They will be very lucky to get even 1 MP elected. But they exist, they are growing, people are waking up to the EU issue and Nigel is no longer considered a loon by the mainstream media.
The Tories / Lab / Lib can continue to call it a protest vote but all that will do is further infuriate those who really do think that a major change in our relationship with Europe is long overdue. But when even Daves own MPs dont believe that the Conservatives can effect that change there is no point in voting Conservative.
Boundary changes were denied to the Conservatives by their Liberal coalition. Yet another of the Lib promises that they reneged on. If Cameron really had balls he would have made this a resigning point and watched scardy Claggy poop his pants at the thought of an early election if Lib failed to agree. But he didnt so hes automatically entering the next election with lower prospects than he could have expected had those boundary changes taken place. And all that Claggy managed to achieve over that was to save his weedy little neck for a further year or so until the next election.
I have been very disappointed at the way that Dave has let the Liberals walk all over him.