Conservative Carswell defects to UKIP

[Isitmebut]

Modernizer Carwell won the new Clacton seat in 2010 with a large majority, heavily influenced by Ukip deciding not to stand a candidate themselves – so he has found a natural home with those that have a totally anti EU stance, but seems to forget that Ukip without a parliamentary majority cannot change British law to bring us out.

Claig …… after all your rants about right wing ‘modernizers’, you now own another one – so time for you to ‘jump’ the other way? lol

P.S. His defection was hardly cold, but by 1.30pm Wikipedia had been changed to reflect his defection. Who do you think was in a hurry to reflect his move, Ukip or the Conservatives? lol

'the Tories will throw everything they’ve got at him'

Good luck with that. They haven't got a clue. They are swimming against the tide and don't know what to do. None of their spin works anymore, none of their thinktanks can help them anymore. Soon even their donors will start to panic and they will abandon them and join the people too.

cleggys party political broadcast tonight was dire. They really don't get it at all

I haven't seen that. Will have to try and find it on youtube.

Can't wait for tomorrow night from 10 pm. That is when the fun starts and the panic begins

The Euro elections made history and tomorrow will make history and change Britain forever.

Ok Claig

wine bottles at the ready at 10pm tomorrow night for Question Time from Clacton. With UKIPs Patrick O'Flynn on the panel

Great stuff. Wine, chocolate, cake, it's all ready. Let the fun begin. Send in the clowns (the Tory spinners). They won't know what hit them. The people of Clacton have been longing for this day.

So let's play Excuse Bingo tomorrow

I offer you

1). The Parris excuse - they are too unmetropolitan to bother about

2. it's a protest vote - they will return to the Tories at the next election

3. it's all down to Carswells personal popularity

4. They are not terribly bright down those parts - after all they wear she'll suits and have the temerity to be disabled !!

5). This is how the Third Reich started.

6. They cannot compete with immigrant workers so are making a protest vote

And the good old chestnut

7. It's all because of 'Local issues'

I bet we have heard at least 3 by midnight

Yes, the spinners will try to include them all.

The Mail have been down to Clacton to see what the pensioners think. Everyone's turned UKIP - from the unemployed left-behinds of Jaywick to the middle-classes of Frinton. But some of the pensioners will switch back to Tory at the general election. Hopefully, not too many.

"Traitor? No, to the voters our smug elite forgot, he’s a hero

"But there will be no slapstick at tonight’s count on the North Essex coast. This will be genuine, even historic, political drama.

For the people of Clacton seem poised to strike a resounding — and somewhat gleeful — blow against not just David Cameron, but what they perceive as the Westminster elite."
...
The difference this time, he says, is that he is drawing votes from ‘the 50 per cent of the electorate who would never dream of voting Tory’. ‘Hello, I’m Douglas,’ is his standard introduction in Madeira Road, a mix of bungalows, flats and modest detached homes.

‘I know you are,’ is the standard response. ‘Is there anything you’d like to say to me?’ he asks previous Tory voter Mary Dawson who, like everyone else I meet in this road, is a pensioner.

‘Just, well done!’ she laughs
...
Her neighbour won’t divulge her voting intentions. ‘I may be old-fashioned, but I think these things should remain private.’ But she has a prediction. ‘A landslide,’ she whispers to me, nodding at Mr Carswell.
...
Mr Watling takes a different tack: ‘I just can’t understand why Douglas did it.’ But it seems many disillusioned Tory supporters can.

If they vote the way I think they will, the result could represent one of the seismic moments in post-war British politics."

www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2785683/Traitor-No-voters-smug-elite-forgot-s-hero-On-streets-Clacton-Tory-turncoat-set-Ukip-s-MP-today.html

Bring it on, take them down.

Then on to Rochester where the Tories say they will throw everything they have got at Reckless. That is code for they will draft in every spinner, policy wonk, PPE and think tank geek they can get their hands on. So it will probably be another defeat for them.

Rod Liddle in the Spectator shows why the metropolitan elite, their mates and their political parties are in trouble.

"Who are Ukip’s new voters? The kind of people who decide elections

Don’t think of Colonel Bufton-Tufton – think of Mondeo Man and Worcester Woman"
...
This is but one reason why the next general election will be the most fascinating within living memory; the pollsters do not really have a clue what’s going on.
...
My suspicion is that Ukip will win [in Rochester], despite the furious and concerted rubbishing of Mr Reckless by local Tories. And if they do, that will throw the next election wide open and you might expect Ukip to get rather more than the ‘one or two’ seats that both it and the Conservatives have hazarded it might secure. And the Ukip vote will gnaw into the Tory votes south of the Wash and Labour votes in the North.
...
The most interesting thing in all of this is who, exactly, is voting for Nigel Farage’s lot, and why are they doing so? Because Ukip’s demographic has turned almost 180 degrees in the last five or six years and the problem for Farage is to maintain the line that the party can represent Poujadist, disillusioned, affluent Euro-averse Tories in Dorset and Devon while also appealing to the blue collar voters north of the Trent.

It is not simply a north-south divide. In a sense, the most remarkable thing about the Ukip vote now is the east-west divide. Whereas once Ukip’s strongholds were in the seriously Eurosceptical west of England, they are now concentrated on the eastern rim of England. The two seats which comprise the Isle of Thanet, plus Clacton, Rochester, Great Grimsby, swathes of Essex, parts of Lincolnshire.
...
The old caricature of the typical Ukip voter as a splenetic and ruddy-faced Bufton-Tufton, enraged beyond measure at some Brussels ruling on the size and shape of parsnips, is by now close to ten years out of date. Indeed, the votes Ukip are picking up now are the people who have decided most of our recent general elections, from Mondeo Man through to Worcester Woman. Hard-working, anti-toff, middle-income, tough on that besom Laura Norder, virulently anti-immigration, politically incorrect and most of all, feeling let down by the three main parties.

www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/rod-liddle/9335821/who-are-ukips-new-voters-the-kind-of-people-who-decide-elections/

All of their politically correct posturing is over, all of their climate crusades are over, all of their polar bear preaching is over. They preached at, dismissed and ignored the people and now the people have had enough.

What can they do about it? Nothing, because the public don't believe a leopard can change its spots. They can act all they like, they can spin as much as a windmill, they can preach till the cows come home, but it's over, they won't fool the people anymore.

"Westminster is on the cusp of a "Krakatoa" moment, Nigel Farage said"
...

With a seat in Parliament, Ukip will campaign to replace the first past the post electoral system with one with a greater element of proportional representation by 2020, Mr Farage said - resulting in Ukip and other minority parties to entering the Commons in far greater numbers.
"It is a new dawn," Mr Farage said. "It is the end of the closed shop of two-and-a-half party politics."

"Winning the European elections was an earthquake. Clacton is a shift in the tectonic plates of British politics. And if we win in Heywood and Middleton, it will be Krakatoa," he said.

A victory will bring more MP defectors and more donors, he claimed.

Last night Jackie Doyle Price, the Tory MP for Thurrock, a top Ukip target seat, urged her party to abandon "bland and managerial" language, particularly around immigration.

Ms Doyle Price, who has a majority over Labour of just 92, said Tories should not worry about "frightening the horses" by saying that immigration has put pressure on council houses, school places and wages.

"Anybody is vulnerable if they are not talking about the things people care about," she said.

"Talk about life as it impacts people - not about life as it impacts people within the M25 and the elites that dictate the news agenda in our country."

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/11149953/Ukip-breakthrough-in-Clacton-by-election-would-be-a-Kratatoa-moment-says-Nigel-Farage.html

I must admit, I do feel sorry for good Conservatives who have worked hard for people. They are lions led by donkeys, doomed by a politically correct incompetent out-of-touch arrogant elite.

I can just imagine how it must probably be at Conservative HQ.

The phones don't stop ringing at the office of Sir Archibald Jefferson-Smythe, Bullingdon member, ex-Eton, ex-Marlborough, Oxford University PPE with honours and distinction, Head of Policy and Strategy at Conservative HQ, as panicking sitting MPs ring up begging for a change in the politically correct policies that are destroying their voter base.

"Help, please help. Sir Jefferson can you please ease up on these politically correct policies that are not working here in our heartlands. The voters here don't give a stuff about hugging a huskie and the very last thing they want to do is hug a hoodie"

"Don't panic, keep calm. We must see our policy through. Our best spinners and think tank teenage whizzkids have told us we are on the right track"

"Please, please, get out of your ivory tower and come down to the doorstep and see what is going on. No one has got a kind word to say about us, and some lifelong Tory voters are now launching volleys of abuse as we walk past their homes on the pavement. It's desperate down here. This is not Westminster, they're not luvvies round here - they're hardworking people."

"Is it Labour doing the damage?" asks Sir Jefferson

"Of course it's not Labour - it's UKIP. They've got their tanks on our lawn and they are tearing it up. There is a picture of Farage gurning in every window, and that's just on millionaire's row, down on the council estates, it's absolutely plastered with UKIP posters."

"Tell those plebs to get back in their box and warn them that the only alternative is Red Marxist Miliband. And please don't call us anymore, we'll call you when we release our new policy on the extension of rooftop wind turbine grants to every hardworking household."

WetAugust/Claig ….. May I suggest your by-election victory laps are far more entertaining than “excuses” from the current government, which INCLUDES the previous recipient of ‘the protest vote’, the Lib Dems.

The Conservatives rarely win by-elections, until Newark a few months ago that is, and the only difference in Clacton and Rochester now, which is pretty fundamental, is UKIP HAVE BOUGHT SITTING CONSERVATIVE MP’s – when Ukip win a Westminster seat from a campaigning Ukip candidate, not feel the need to poach votes from sitting MP’s who have relationships with constituency voters, you may deserve a victory lap.

Stuart Wheeler your main backer and Treasurer owns a FTSE betting company, and looking at the General Election results of 2010, realised a Ukip candidate standing in Clacton would SPLIT the centre right votes, this is not rocket science – so in true corporate, betting, money man style, he decided to FIX the odds, by ‘taking out’ the sitting Conservative MP, knowing it would take until the General Election for his replacement to get to know the constituency.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stuart_Wheeler

In numbers, the Clacton 2010 General Election, here were the approximate results, with Labour having totally screwed up, so can be expected to poll higher 4-years later and would BENEFIT FROM A SPLIT CONSERVATIVE/VOTE.
Conservatives 21,000
Labour 11,000
Lib Dem 6,000
Ukip – did not stand.

Wheeler realised with Ukip keep coming second and a general election looming, they needed an edge - as Ukip as a party are an annual policy joke, and their candidates don’t seem to have the (in football parlance) ‘quality’ - so they peed from a great height on Ukip’s Roger Lord who had campaigned for them for nearly 20-years – how ‘corporate’.
www.maldonandburnhamstandard.co.uk/news/countywide/11449211.Ousted_Ukip_candidate_Roger_Lord_to_quit_politics/?ref=var_0

If Clacton where a sitting Conservative MP is so overtly offered a Ukip Deputy Leadership by FTSE money men desperate to win Westminster seats is an example of UKip’s ‘change’ in politics, then god help us.

So have your larf now, you’ve paid for it, and we see what happens in 2015 when the electoral choice is a Conservative or pro EU/immigration Labour Party needing only 31% of the vote, forming the next government,

Isitmebut

you really need to seek help for your Stuart Wheeler obsession. It's starting to seem like jealousy

as for Carswell and Reckless - well you didn't want them did you as Shapps and Boris keep telling us, they are really bad people. So you should be glad we gave taken off your hands.

Being totally candid - have you not e peri ended first hand this rise in Ukip support. Never been somewhere and seen a UKIP stall where you didn't expect to see ken, never had a conversation with a tradesoerson or taxi driver about the state if the nation, never noticed UKIPs growing popularity on programmes such as last weeks question time?

If you have not noticed this ground steel in public support you have your head firmly buried in the sand.

You are so symptomatic of shots wrong with the Tories. Inability to realise things have changes, refusal yo acknowledge change and no strategy fir dealing with these changed circumstances except yo mock your defectors, mock the doctorate and bang on about irrelevancies such as where UKIPs money comes from.

I would rather toe fir a united arty and believe me UKIP are totally united! unlike the Tories who can't stand Dave and font trust Dave and the Labs who want their darling leader to just go away.

WetAugust …. So to begin with, as you attack me for mentioning Wheeler’s clear influence/strategy re Clacton, you cannot dispute any of the facts I have just mentioned, good.

Re ‘the State of the Nation’, I understand more than most what state it is in, but most voters do not understand the difference to their pockets and services if the UK is balancing it’s income/expenditure as in the early 2000’s after spending restraint, or if it is spending £157 billion more than it brings in as in 2010 – and the only way to bring it down is economic growth, cuts and more taxes.

Labour said prior to the 2010 general election, and now at their Conference, that THEY will flatten the budget deficit and will not borrow more, but cannot find the ‘cuts’, so as in 1970’s Labour, after 2015 there has to be much higher taxes for everyone

Ukip has no solutions to their economic/income problems and it is politically disingenuous at best to pretend you do, but then again for the past 20-years Ukip have portrayed to the now EU betrayed that they can bring the UK out of the EU, so misrepresenting yourselves for votes is not new to Ukip.

In 2015 the General Election message could not be more black and white, a Labour EU/immigration/economy government needing 31% of the vote, or Conservative. Simples.

P.S. On 'trust' issues, I'd suggest that if you have to buy sitting MP's with titles to win Westminster seats, after the 2010 failure to win seats on lies, a Ukip who cannot be trusted on policies, now does not trust their own candidates after years of campaigning, to win a Westminster seat.
news.sky.com/story/1200525/nigel-farage-disowns-ukip-manifesto-as-drivel

simples indeed Isutmebut. But your analysis is flawed because the Libs will probably have to form part of what will almost certainly be a coalition govt.

I know Ukip will not win the election

I know UKIP will not hold the balance if power.

I know that the UK will NEVER leave the EU. The electorate will be scared into stating and even if they vote to leave they will be asked to vote again until they come up with the right answer that the EU wants. we've seen this time sad time again

UKIP is a total rejection of the current political part clowns and, given sufficient time, proletariat may one day wake up and reject the libLabCon muppets

And I'm not wasting a sunny afternoon to reiterate what UKIPs saving are and where they will come from. Just scroll down this thread to find out

WetAugust .... my analysis is NOT flawed, I have said either Labour or the Conservatives will form the next government, Labour only needs 31% to do so, 35% would give Labour a 60 seat parliamentary majority as in 2005 - and whether it is just pro Eu Labour or in coalition with pro EU Lib Dems, there will not be a set Eu Referendum.

The UK will receive an IN/OUT EU Referendum if the Conservatives had the power of a parliamentary majority, for all the reasons I've mentioned before; the people want it and the Conservative Party wants it to settle the debate within AND for economic reasons, they are anti fat, inefficient government that impedes economic growth.

As to your opinion about 'Ukip is a total reject', I agree with you there, as if the political answer to the Uk's EU, immigration, and economic problems is a Ukip/Farage disingenuously pretending they have the answers to voters, one has to ask what the 'kin 'el was the question??

The only question I can think of, just how many ways can a political bitching, policy flip flopping United Kingdom Independence Party ensure the pro EU, economically incompetent Labour, forms the next government.

Well I shall be very happy when Dave and Claggy get in and gives us an in out vote.

I am sure my fellow Kippers will vote out.

Why have you Tories started swearing?

Is it ok now Dave did it in Scotland

If you are going to swear doing be so fucking twee about it

More reports are coming in of a phone call made by a Tory canvasser on the streets of Clacton to the office of Sir Archibald Jefferson-Smythe, Bullingdon member, ex-Eton, ex-Marlborough, Oxford University PPE with honours and distinction, Head of Policy and Strategy at Conservative HQ.

"Sir Archibald, it's desperate down here"

"I know that, tell me something new. Is there no good news at all down there?"

"Well one of our big-hitters has just got the train out of here, so at least we won't lose any more votes by people recognising him."

"We've got hardly any people left on the ground delivering leaflets for us. The Young Conservatives, average age 42, turned up yesterday and a schoolkid handed them the UKIP manifesto and they all deserted on the spot and signed up for UKIP membership. They said something about that being real conservative.

"Hmm ... I can see their point. What about our big-hitters, the ones we use when we throw everything we've got at the opposition. Aren't they having an effect?"

"Yes, they are - a deleterious effect. When people see them coming with outstretched hand, they cross the street to avoid them. But whenever the people see a UKIP canvasser, they rush over to them, shake their hand and ask for a leaflet. And as for Farage, I can only describe it as if Elvis had hit town. He is mobbed everywhere he goes, people hail him in the street, pensioners offer to buy him a pint, it's like nothing I've ever witnessed. And he is strolling around with a huge cigar and a smile the size of the Forth bridge as if he owned the place. It's desperate down here."

"It certainly sounds like it. Have you tried seling our policies to the people. How is that going down?"

"Like a lead balloon. I told them about the bedroom tax and austerity cuts and it met a stony silence."

"What about modernisation, the cornerstone of our philosophy?"

"It's gone down terribly with the people here. It's not Westminster, they're not luvvies, just hardworking people. They say it's not real conservative."

"Hmm ... I can see their point"

"What about our climate change policies, how are they going down. Have you told them about our windfarms?"

"Yes, "monstrosities" they called them."

"Have you explained how UN scientists say we have passed the tipping point and that some thinkers believe we have only 5 years to save the planet?"

"Yes, I told them all that, but no one believes it. They call it spin. And as for the scientists, the word "puppet" was used."

"Hmm ... i can see their point. Well look, keep battling on, try and get our message across. As long as it's not a landslide, we can try and spin our way out of it."

"But I fear it may be a landslide ..."

Then the phone cut out and the bell tolled.

wipeout rather than landslide in Clacton

Loved your little story about Isitmebut

Can't wait for the result. And fingers crossed about Heywood and Middleton.

Farage says that would be Krakatoa.

Clacton is a cert. Heywood will batam Labour.

In for a good nights viewing

always like the morning after too when all the recriminations start and the panicked MPs sitting in marginals start telling it like it us

Yay, Harriet Harperson is on QT wearing her GIll the Giraffe outfit again.

Always makes me laugh

Patrick O's face was an absolute picture as he tried to puzzle out WTF that bloke in the audience was on about