Odds are shortening on a UKIP victory in Labour held Heywood and Middleton, now 9/2 while Labour is 1/8 so still not looking too good for UKIP yet.
But
"More households in the predominantly white, working-class seat have put up posters in the party’s yellow and purple colours than the party ever dreamed possible, and outside the shopping centre in Middleton on Thursday morning it was difficult to find anyone who claimed they were certain to vote Labour on 9 October.
“I’ve voted Labour all my life and never, ever again,” said one angry woman. “We have been utterly deserted up here."
...
During the Labour party conference last week, one of Manchester’s Labour councillors put out an SOS call. Peter Cookson, who represents Gorton South, pleaded with delegates at a fringe meeting to “come and help us” in Heywood and Middleton. “Ukip are a real threat there,” he said.
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Colin Kirby, 63, a thoughtful retired teacher, admitted he was considering defecting from Labour to Ukip, fed up of what he called Miliband’s “Londoncentric” politics. “There’s no clarity between the two main parties, so when you hear something different, it’s attractive. Essentially I’m a Labour voter, but a disenfranchised one. The dynamic of Labour is so narrow, so Londoncentric. All of the main decisions about important things in the north of England are taken down in London.”
Originally a Scouser, Kirby now lives in Alkrington, one of the wealthiest bits of the generally deprived constituency. “I suppose it’s what you might call a nice middle class area, with a mix of Labour and Tory voters,” he said. “But from the conversations I’m having in shops and pubs, I think Ukip could be in with a chance.”
www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/oct/02/odd-shorten-ukip-victory-labour-heywood-and-middleton
I think there are signs that Labour are in a state of panic and despair up there based on the fact that they have had to draft in Jim Murphy, fresh from haranguing Scottish voters on his Irn Bru crate crusade, to harangue, hector and lecture the good voters of Heywood and Middleton.
The more he speaks, the more voters will rush to UKIP.