Medicine 2023 Entry

[opoponax]

Hi all,

I don't think there is a Medicine 2023 Entry thread yet, so it might be an idea to get one started.

Anyone out there with DC applying or reapplying for Medicine 2023, please join a friendly thread for mutual support and useful advice from those who understand the UK Medical School application process.

@Tiz3 that's correct. We've had students in the past apply for a 5th in March, immediately reject it so they can apply via Extra.

@worstparentever that is a good score, although the SJT means he needs to be a bit more strategic. Obviously depends on other stats (GCSEs and A level subjects), but the ones which don't look at SJT or just exclude B4 are:
Aberdeen, ARU, Aston, Barts, Bristol, Cardiff, Dundee, Edge Hill, Exeter, Glasgow, Keele, KMMS, Plymouth, QUB, Southampton, Sunderland.

So loads of options!

@worstparentever missed Newcastle off the list

Thanks, @Monkey2001 & @mumsneedwine . Relieved to find that he still has many options. He is doing the BMAT but the dilemma is that he thinks UCAT was more suited to him and that his BMAT score may not be as good. We need to decide how to split his applications.

@Monkey2001 & @mumsneedwine please reassure me that I have researched this correctly. With 2930 UCAT SJT 3 he will most likely be guaranteed an interview at Bristol and Newcastle. He might apply for Keele and I gather that SJT applied after the interview as the application looks at mostly RRs.

With his BMAT still pending one application to another University is a risk but one he wants to take. How likely is Cambridge? Not privately educated and I know the demand for places is high everywhere just seems Cambridge is a long shot. Thinking Leeds? Does anywhere publish odds of getting in?

Thanks

@mumsneedwine @Monkey2001 I'm also struggling to get my head around the details - I've had some fab advice on here about narrowing down DD's options but as I'm new to medicine applications this year, could you give me a bit of an insight into the last couple of years.

I'm looking at the interview / offer rates for various places and I would have expected the problem year to be 2021 entry when lots of places had already been taken up by deferrals from 2020. There's an FOI for Leeds which shows that the number of applicants for entry in 2019, 2020 and 2021 was relatively static, with decent interview and offer ratios (there was a drop of about 60 places between 2020/21). Then in 2022 the number of applicants increased by approx. 10%, but interviews dropped by about a third, and offers dropped by another 20%.

So for 2020 entry (similar to 2019)
2427 applicants, 993 interviews, 365 offers

2021 entry
2570 applicants, 940 interviews, 300 offers

2022 entry
2965 applications, 599 interviews, 241 offers

I can understand that the reduced offers might be due to deferrals, but why the big decrease in interviews? Any advice welcome!

@Africa2go @worstparentever I would not get too bogged down in offer/interview rate. Yes, some places you have more chance after an interview, but conversely they interview less people. Best to apply to where your stats fit best and where you like the course/city.
Any UCAT over 2,800 will give you 4 or more options of a likely interview (nothing is definite !).
As to BMAT, you won't know the result until after you apply. So with a fab UCAT only do so if you are desperate for a BMAT Uni. Leeds you usually need v v good GCSEs but I think most people will have these this year as they were TAGs. So might post the BMAT score required higher.
Cambridge is a v different course to most places, being 3 years pre clinical and v little patient contact in that time. Might be your dream but investigate the course structure carefully.

2022 was the main anomaly year. The universities had so many students meet the terms of their offers in 2021 that they bribed some to defer. Then there were announcements that there would be grade inflation again for 2022 and that the govt would fine medical schools which over-recruited, so they were much more cautious for 2022. In our experience Leeds is a fairly low offer/interview rate - DS was in 6th decile post interview but didn't get an offer, would have been fine at his other ones.

@worstparentever I did not think Keele used SJT post interview, but you should always check on the medical school website if there is any doubt. Cambridge interview 80% of applicants, so as long as you are predicted at least 2A*A and don't have a rubbish BMAT you will probably get an interview BUT only 25% of interviewees get offers. Leeds need 8x8/9 at GCSE to have a good chance of interview. If he thinks BMAT might not suit him he should probably apply to 3 UCAT. What are his A level predictions?

@Africa2go the big decrease in interviews was due to the mess the previous year, where some Unis continued to over offer but exams did not take place. So lots of students weee paid to defer.
In order not to be in the same position this year, Unis offered many fewer places and then ran waiting lists, which they offered off as people declined them. Some therefore interviewed less as they were not going to over offer.
Bit simplistic but a broad outline. No one knows what this year brings and whether things will return to normal. Personally I'd not worry about it, as you can't change it. Just go with what is thrown at us for 2023.

@Monkey2001 😊😊

I would not get too bogged down in offer/interview rate. Yes, some places you have more chance after an interview, but conversely they interview less people. Best to apply to where your stats fit best and where you like the course/city.

I am afraid I have to disagree with @mumsneedwine for the first time! 🙃I think that Liverpool with a 25% offer to interview ratio is less attractive than Leicester who have said that they intend to interview 1100 and make 850 offers (77%)! I agree that the first thing is to ensure the application scoring matches your strengths and then that the course and city appeal. After that I would say that offer rates are VERY relevant. (Veteran of 2 DSs who did not get in first time!).

@Monkey2001 😊 for me it's a stats thing. Liverpool interview lots more than Leicester, so less statistical chance of an offer after interview, but you at least get to try at the interview. Does that make sense ?

Somewhere there is a spreadsheet of offer/interview ratios. Not sure where I saved it but will look when I'm home (having a cuppa before meeting)

@GANFYD I have FINALLY updated the actuals in the strategic application spreadsheet and I think we can pat ourselves on the backs! There were:

2 for which we were significantly out - we said 2550 for ARU and it was 2640, and QUB we said 35 and it was 38. 2 for which we were a little out - Plymouth we estimated 2600 would be safe and cut off was 2610, SGUL we estimated 2710 and it was 2700. We were a bit pessimistic on Leicester and Manchester, but all the others were very safe if they said they were and were in the "might be risky band". I will make some slight adjustments and re-issue with our latest estimates soon - you can PM me here or TSR for any changes you think we need. Here is the spreadsheet with an "Actuals" column. I have also put in the 2022 number of places for each medical school.

@Monkey2001 thank you !!!!! It's the most useful resource and so appreciated. 🥰

I would agree if you had a UCAT of 2700, but if you had 2750 I would go for Manchester as you can be confident of an interview and have a better chance of an offer post interview.

The best resource I have seen for offer ratios is the one done by Nexttime (a doctor who used to be on TSR) public.tableau.com/profile/alec6322#!/vizhome/UKmedicalschoolapplicationratios2017-19/DomesticApplicanttoOfferRatio

Thank you @Monkey2001 . We did have a spreadsheet which I think ?Lovehoney had on TSR but I can't get into it at the moment. I agree the most important thing is to apply where you might get an interview, but after that if trying to decide between two different unis which you otherwise like a similar amount and both are likely to interview you, why not apply for the one with the higher offer rates.

@Monkey2001 can I be really cheeky - have the columns for safe / risky etc been updated? Its a great resource though, thank you.

@Africa2go not updated yet. Will post when done, but we need the interim UCAT stats which should be out soon. Some will go down, such as Exeter, who interviewed very few this year. Ones scoring GCSEs may go up.

Looking forward to your wisdom @Monkey2001

@Monkey2001 think I may have read Keele wrong and you are correct in regards to the SJT band not being used.

Not sure he is going to risk Keele as your spread sheet highlights and @mumsneedwine also kindly pointed out that with a 2930 UCAT score DS will hopefully meet the interview threshold criteria for at least 4 Universities unless the thresholds are greatly increased this year.

Thanks to you both for your help.

The preliminary bands are out on UCAT website.

Yes, a bit higher than 2021 preliminaries and high rates of sitting. Another competitive year ahead.

Definitely, a competitive year BMAT looking like less of a risk now! Will have to reassess after the final UCAT results are published.

Although looking more closely the mean is lower, it seems the extremes are further out than the middle range compared to previous years