Going into Year 13 - Uni entry 2021 - have they been forgotten?

[albicocca]

Is anyone else concerned about the children just about to start Year 13 and their opportunities for university entry in 2021? I have seen virtually no discussion about how this A level shambles might effect them. It seems to me there will inevitably be fewer university places for next year. Many of those who planned to go to uni this year will be deferring their places to 2021 (indeed some universities are offering money for them to do so now!) resulting in far fewer places. The current group will also have (on average) higher grades than next years cohort. So those taking A levels in 2021 will be competing for fewer places with lower grades. Have they been forgotten? What is the government doing to protect their opportunities too?

Hopefully next year's a level and gcse (and other qualifications) are next in the list. I guess they needed to sort this years students out first though as that was more imminent.

We are discussing this in the Oxbridge Aspirants thread Albi, but obviously it applies to all universities. All you hear on the news is that allowances need to be made for the disruption to this year’s cohort because they’ve already gone through enough, etc etc. Well yes, but when schools closed in late March, they would have been virtually on study leave anyway! It’s this year’s Year 12s whose actual education has been disrupted. They couldn’t just down tools when lockdown happened. They have had to keep working - but for what, I’m not sure because it looks like uni places will be severely reduced. No mention of this impact in the media at all and no evidence that it’s dawned on the govt yet, given the shambles we’ve witnessed so far,

There will be a massive drop next year in the number of EU applicants, as they’ll be subject to full international fees once the Brexit transition ends. On the course I teach, that’s around 20% of our intake, which is consistent with the sector overall and a much larger number than expected deferrals for next year. 95% of the EU students I currently teach would not be able to pay full international fees (plus up until now they had access to student loans for the fees, though not maintenance).

I really don’t think a decreased availability of places is going to be an issue for most courses.

People have asked this on the student room to official admissions people, and the replies are largely a bit waffly and “we’re trying to make it fair”. This seems like an admission that they just don’t know what to do - in addition to all the fee holders they know about, they don’t know yet how many people will win appeals against their CAGS and thus be entitled to a place, swelling the numbers even more.

I suppose at the moment no one knows exact numbers, but, given that several universities at least are asking for people to defer, that indicates they are going to be in the worst-case scenarios entirely full on some courses for next year.

I’ve just phoned UCL and Imperial admissions and they were both very negative. Said no there won’t be as many places available for the current year 12s, are expecting the same amount of internationals next year. Also, they are waiting to see if any of the year 13s who are doing the October exams who won’t get those results until January meet their offers. I said so my daughter might need to reconsider which universities she applies to now then and they said yes. I’m so angry. My daughter has worked solidly with just one week off over Summer as she has mocks in September and may not be able to go to any of the universities she wants to go to.

It's so depressing. Current Year 12s have had a massive hole in their education (with no level playing field in terms of remote learning provision). No work experience. No uni open days. No adjustments to exam content for the vast majority of subjects. And now fewer opportunities at uni potentially.

I will be writing to my MP.

How to get the media engaged?!

I’ve been turning this over and over in my mind and I don’t see what is to be done.

The stable door is open now and you can’t take back the yr 13 grades or rescind their places. I am angry no one saw this coming. Even without this scale of debacle you were going to get loads deferring and impacting the next year.

I can only think they should ban yr 13s from applying next year with grades in hand.. I’ve seen it suggested a number of times that if they want to compete with yr 12s then they’ll have to take exams alongside the yr12s. But that’ll never happen.

GAAcademic that is encouraging and not something I have heard elsewhere

I agree - what is to be done? Can't change current A level results but equally very unfair on year 12s to have to compete with these inflated grades, let alone less places.....

I hope there is a very big discussion about this shortly - once current A level / uni situation settled a bit. I know one thing that is being discussed is increasing numbers, as they have this year to allow for the extra students - clearly makes the uni experience less desirable (more people in set ups designed for less) but would be fairer on those who knew they had to get AAB to go somewhere this year, to have a similar offer made next year - rather than the AAA or even A* AA we are fearing.

Extremely concerned nearly year 13 parent here! It is so unfair and it needs urgent attention. Applications for Oxbridge etc need to be in by 15th October so clarity is imperative. I am hoping that the number of places offered is the same as usual, but some (many?) offers will be for deferred entry in 2022. I recognise I might be in dreamland though the way things have gone so far.....

Said no there won’t be as many places available for the current year 12s, are expecting the same amount of internationals next year.

It's possible that you may have been talking at cross purposes here? EU students are counted as home, not international, students for the purposes of fees and quotas. And I can't see how there will be anything other than a near elimination of those students in the next recruitment round. In my experience, universities have not been paying sufficient attention to this. Of course, some universities may not have that many EU students, and the London universities you mention, because of the expense of living there, may not be very attractive to the kind of EU students that I teach. But I know it will be a very real issue for my courses.

It was international students I asked them about.

They take 50-60% international students.

Just realised what you mean!

@albicocca thanks for this thread. I was mulling over whether I was the only one stressed. My soon to be y13 DD has worked her socks off too and also goes to a 6th form college which was heavily affected with downgrading. She is stressed enough as all our DCs must be with having lost a terms teaching but now a shortage of places? So unfair.
@IrmaFayLear I agree with your idea but sadly I dont think that will happen either.
Does anyone feel that all subject areas will be pressured for applications? My DD wants to do a popular humanity subject but is now reconsidering! I do feel for medicine and STEM applicants though.
I do think the dust needs to settle and then see where we are. I suspect we as parents of Y13 may need to up the ante.....

Also depressing that Durham are offering several thousand pounds to tempt people to defer AND giving them first dibs on accommodation! It seems preposterous that this is the situation.

Perhaps our Yr13's should be offered money or discounts and top accommodation at reduced rates to apply for deferred places for 2022? Hopefully chances for work and travel may be improved in the next year, and our DC's could get some benefit from all the messing around they have endured. DD was grumpy when we suggested this, but she may come around if there are options available.

Looking back to March when many A Level and GCSE students were celebrating the fact that they didn't have to revise or do exams, never has the maxim, "beware of what you wish for" been more appropriate.

I have a just-finished-year-13 DC but if they were a year younger, I'd definitely be encouraging them to plan for a year out and apply with grades in hand in autumn 2021, for Sept 2022 entry.
There is no rush, and this would allow the Covid situation to settle down a bit, let the bulk of the deferred applicants in ahead of them, allow them have a proper look around universities (hopefully; assuming open days are back on by summer / autumn of 2021?) and get some relevant work experience / something to boost their UCAS personal statement.

Yes, am rather wishing DS wasn't headed for the October 15th deadline too as I doubt we'll have more clarity by then (is ever). Really hoping , for instance , that Durham will say how many of the 2021 history places are still available but fear they won't share.

I've posted similar on another thread, and whilst I do appreciate that there has been stress for the cohort that has just finished year 13, I think the year below has suffered far more. People talk about the current year 13s having "missed out" and yes, they've missed out on rites of passage etc, plus the grades debacle was ridiculous, but most of them won't have missed any education to speak of. Certainly at my children's school A level syllabi will have been completed before lockdown in the vast majority of subjects and all that was left was revision and the exams. Whereas year 12 have had a full term out of school - so around a fifth of their courses - and if what we are being told is correct they will be expected to take exams next summer as if nothing has happened. They've not been able to attend real open days and are going back to school with UCAS deadlines looming. My son has exams pretty much as soon as he returns to school so the summer has been spent revising and we're paying a small fortune for tutors for him.
But he is so demoralised by it all and now knowing that a substantial amount of University places are already for spoken for he isn't even sure he wants to apply. I'm encouraging him to think about a gap year as hopefully things might be clearer and more back to normal by then, but it could take years for things to even out I suppose.
I don't wish any ill on the current year 13s and I do understand why things have had to be this way, but naturally I am most concerned about my own child. And the fact remains that there are a lot more young people being offered University places this year than would have been had the exams taken place. I am struggling to see how that can possibly fail to have some impact upon the year below and I am very worried about it.

Another parent of a current year 12 here.

I know there has been published data for the number of offers vs the number of places for both Oxford and Cambridge this year .

Oxford over offered by 450 students who will presumably be offered a deferred place for 2021, that is 13% of their annual student intake. Cambridge has yet to release any data on their increased number of students this year but they offered 4500 when they only have 3450 spaces.

This will also be happening at other RG universities, I had a quick look. Ds has worked his backside off to get where he is. He has missed a Cambridge college residential, his summer school was changed to online but when he logged on to start it they had changed it to a more generic subject (think STEM instead of maths). He has missed out on open days so has to guess if he will like a university or not.

We are debating whether to advise him to get his Cambridge application in for October but hold off on the others until he has at least visited the towns.

He has exams looming, he is worried as we now have the new timetable for year 13 which involves 1 subject for the entire day, so 5 hours of each subject. Except he sits 4 A levels and they have said 3 days so we are assuming one will be online. We have to wait and see. It is just a fucking mess.

Sadly, @Bluepaintsamplex, I think that underestimates the oxford problem as a statement they out out before the CAG reversal said
"We made about 3,900 offers in January for an expected 3,287 places at Oxford,"

So over 600 over offers

www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-08-15-university-statement-2020-admissions

Oh and Durham history open days I think said they made over 900 offers last year to fill their circa 230 places (which I found staggering quite apart from this issue)

This may be a stupid question, but isn't it the case that many students would have had several offers in hand, or are we talking only about the end of the process where candidates have their firm and insurance choices decided? So say Durham makes 100 offers, but only 60 accept, preferring somewhere else, and 25 don't get the grades..? Buggered if I know. I do know that my DC has gone from being confident he could take the A levels now if required, to thinking that now his year is fucked from the off.

@BreconBeBuggered that’s a valid point. I wonder if this type of data will be made available sooner or later?
I also agree our DC are demoralised, I worry for their wellbeing, everything was taken away in their eyes and we have dealt with a family bereavement too to add to my DC stress. I am so angry, they have worked so hard, often with no teacher input over those long lockdown weeks except for a powerpoint with all the deadlines needing to be met as if they were in school!Then having exams and predictions set!
This must be kept in the forefront and not be allowed to go away quietly.