Going into Year 13 - Uni entry 2021 - have they been forgotten?

[albicocca]

Is anyone else concerned about the children just about to start Year 13 and their opportunities for university entry in 2021? I have seen virtually no discussion about how this A level shambles might effect them. It seems to me there will inevitably be fewer university places for next year. Many of those who planned to go to uni this year will be deferring their places to 2021 (indeed some universities are offering money for them to do so now!) resulting in far fewer places. The current group will also have (on average) higher grades than next years cohort. So those taking A levels in 2021 will be competing for fewer places with lower grades. Have they been forgotten? What is the government doing to protect their opportunities too?

Not that I wish this misery on anyone else, but I have to admit that it has made me feel a bit better to know that other parents feel similar and that their DCs have the same kind of feelings as mine. I am not exactly less worried and I am being very vigilant, but after reading some of these posts his low mood seems a bit more normal and a rational response to the situation. We've not seen any of his friends or their parents since the start of lockdown as we live in the middle of nowhere and DS is not the most sociable of boys at the best of times. So I have no idea how any of them are feeling. School haven't been any real help. I guess they are no wiser than any of the rest of us and currently occupied with other matters but I feel like we have been abandoned. Seeing others here writing things that I can really relate to makes me feel a bit less alone, so thank you all.

Another 2021 entry here. Nothing particularly to add, except to say that we are also angry and worried about the future.

Normally I would think that the powers to be have months to work on this, but after the shambles this year, I am no longer as confident and optimistic.

I saw this coming months ago as soon as they said exams were cancelled and teachers were predicting their grades. Was told I was overreacting and to stop worrying unnecessarily, it would work out. It’s now ended up being worse than I originally thought. What I don’t get with the grades is why do they keep the higher grade from either CAG or algorithm. If the algorithm didn’t work, why do they get to keep the grade if it’s higher. I know one girl a year above by dd who now has a B in A level maths from the algorithm when she had been failing for the 2 years and accepted she was going to fail it.

@MrsAvocet I am with you on this, having just seen this thread today!
My DD is a bit of a loner having left school for sixth form after bullying so has been isolated somewhat too. I do think they need to go back to a semblance of routine and the start of term is a good thing albeit with a different type of timetable/ day. Am sure your DS will feel better about things, hopefully by then we may have a bit more clarity.
I too feel solidarity with you all. Let’s use this space to vent and support each other.

Hi, I dip in and out of here infrequently but knew this would be where I would feel others sharing my anxiety tonight. Like others dd1 has worked so hard for months but we don't even know what her return to school and start of year 13 will look like. She has her heart set on a STEM course at Durham and we drove up there for an explore of the town a few weeks ago.
The required grades were very high and it would have been aspirational but she is so focused and disciplined it didn't seen impossible. But it now feels like a pipe dream rather than a hopeful option. It just feels so so unfair. I know nothing is confirmed yet but it's horrible to feel like she isn't even in with a chance because of all of this.

I’m so glad that concern seems to be mounting (at least among mums, if not the govt) about this. You do just watch the news and feel totally alienated really.

Irma has been expressing my feelings on the Oxbridge Aspirants thread, but I must say I’m shocked by this latest news that Durham are paying thousands to students to defer! What the hell? What are they thinking? If the stats on offers versus acceptances for Durham are anything to go by, half those students wouldn’t have got the grades. Now they’re being paid to potentially take places from those who would have achieved the grades in the following year. Really?

I don’t know, maybe something will be done to rectify the situation, but as pps say, the Oxbridge deadline is looming. These kids are under so much pressure and the whole way this has been handled is diabolical. This Ed Sec has shown he is reactive rather than proactive and even then, his reactions beggar belief. How is he still in his job and how did he even get it in the first place? I can’t believe it really.

It looks like the cap on medical school places is being lifted temporarily which is good news and will allow more current year 13 to start in 2020.
I do think universities next year for 2021 entry will be very aware of the inflated grades for current year 13 and they will appreciate that the current year 12 have to compete. I wonder if GCSEs will be looked at a lot more, and entrance exams such as UCAT and BMAT for medicine - do exams they will have all sat, therefore a level playing field. I would also suggest current year 12 should be allowed on grade lower, or something like that.

I do think that current year 12 may offered places for a 2022 start in some cases, but maybe that will be ok?

I just feel like year 13, year 12 and possibly year 11 should share the burden in a fair way.

I must say I’m shocked by this latest news that Durham are paying thousands to students to defer! What the hell? What are they thinking?

Do you realise that by accepting an offer from Durham or any other university, students enter into a contract with that university? Durham is simply fulfilling its legal obligation to provide a place to any student meeting the terms of their offer.

My son is going into year 13 this September and I'm as worried as you are all. He's not coped with online learning and lost a lot of motivation.

He also wanted to live/study in Germany, which Brexit has screwed up. :-(

Can I ask why universities are paying/encouraging the current Y13s to defer? What's the thinking behind that?

Can I ask for people's opinions on students in our DC's year group taking a gap year? We had been wondering if that was perhaps best for our DS even before all this happened. He is one of the youngest in the year and a little immature really so I am not sure he is quite ready for University yet. Plus whilst he has a general idea of what he wants to do, he isn't set on any specific course and now obviously he hasn't been able to look properly at anywhere. I don't know whether it is better to apply as normal this year and then ask to defer, or to wait and apply next year with actual results. Nobody I know has ever taken a gap year so I'm not sure of the pros and cons in general, and now everything seems even more complicated.

@albicocca - thanks from me also for starting this thread.

I do think the dust needs to settle and then see where we are, there is a lot of sense in sewingbeefan's comment.

DS3 heading into Y13 - two week's today (gulp). Whilst his eldest brother is an Oxbridge grad that is not a route he'll be taking; but I certainly feel for those with that mid October deadline looming.

I feel the DCs; parents, schools need - and relatively soon - some actual numbers, or at least a really clear indication, in terms of how many of those now ending Y13 have deferred a place, where and what course. Someone referenced Durham earlier, and so for History it would be useful to know typically the number starting History at Durham - I know Durham publish a lot of admission stats, - I've not looked but to keep the maths simple lets say typically there are 200 History freshers. For 2021 entry how many places are now allocated for deferred students. If its up to a couple of dozen well that makes competition a bit more intense but not the end of the world, if its heading towards three figures that's a whole other issue. At the moment none of us have any idea - and we are all quite possibly assuming the worst.

If there are a lot of current Y13 deferrals will that lead to more of our DCs heading into Y13 thinking about deferring or applying post A level with the knock on implications for those who've just done GCSEs , heading into Y12 and potentially facing a similar issue.

The other thing that struck me is that there has been significant GSCE grade inflation this year - more so I think than A levels. So any of our DCs who may decide to apply post A level may be looking at a situation, admittedly for a minority of courses and Unis, where GSCEs are more of a factor in deciding on offers.

Finally, and sorry to go on, these issues are likely to be of greater significance for say applicants to top quartile / top third Unis as opposed to those perhaps seen as less desirable; or indeed for applications to more niche but very highly regarded courses at generally lower rated Unis sorry that sounds snobby, but the notion that every Uni is as good as any other just does not hold up in the real world.

And really finally, and I genuinely hope this is not the case, are some of those Y13s maybe heading in September (or deferred to next year), perhaps unexpectedly if they were being totally honest, to an aspirational choice that may for some lead to struggle and possibly dropping out. That could also be an issue for inflated GSCE results, particularly in a subject like Maths where the step up to A level really is unforgiving.

@MrsAvocet

Can I ask for people's opinions on students in our DC's year group taking a gap year? We had been wondering if that was perhaps best for our DS even before all this happened. He is one of the youngest in the year and a little immature really so I am not sure he is quite ready for University yet. Plus whilst he has a general idea of what he wants to do, he isn't set on any specific course and now obviously he hasn't been able to look properly at anywhere. I don't know whether it is better to apply as normal this year and then ask to defer, or to wait and apply next year with actual results. Nobody I know has ever taken a gap year so I'm not sure of the pros and cons in general, and now everything seems even more complicated.

My DD took A-levels last year and deferred. Due to start at Coventry next month. Applying and deferring was very simple and the school recommended doing that as it was easier with regards to references etc. I don't think waiting would be a problem though - I'm sure lots of people apply to Uni later and manage to get references from their old schools. I would recommend a year out. Lots of friends children dropped out of courses in the first term last year as it wasn't right for them. All their focus in year 12/13 is on exams and reaching the next step, and sometimes it is easy to forget to question if they are on the right path.

@MrsAvocet

Can I ask for people's opinions on students in our DC's year group taking a gap year? We had been wondering if that was perhaps best for our DS even before all this happened. He is one of the youngest in the year and a little immature really so I am not sure he is quite ready for University yet. Plus whilst he has a general idea of what he wants to do, he isn't set on any specific course and now obviously he hasn't been able to look properly at anywhere. I don't know whether it is better to apply as normal this year and then ask to defer, or to wait and apply next year with actual results. Nobody I know has ever taken a gap year so I'm not sure of the pros and cons in general, and now everything seems even more complicated.

@MrsAvocet DS2 applied post A levels mainly because he had no really clear focus on what and where, or the answer to the "why" question on both. His A levels were a bit below expectations, not disasterous by any means, but just below all his eventual target Unis. When he did apply though, with 4 of the 5 being Unis with higher standard grades he got 5 unconditional offers back in less than a week (eg his grades in hand were deemed good enough).

He worked through the gap year; grew up a lot, thought about some travelling but decided he'd rather earn more. Opted for the top spec accommodation at his Uni and happily contributed to the price premium; and despite the C19 interruption I think he'd see Yr1 now completed as a real success.

I would note though that his old school were 100% supportive with his applications; provided the UCAS reference as soon as asked. I think having a more distanced / less helpful former school might make the path less smooth.

It also took the pressure off cramming in Open Days and applicant days - it was not until the final two applicant days that he realised that his favourite choice all along was really not it was all cracked up to be, and that where he is now really was "him"

The deal struck between DfE and the universities today means that, barring exceptional physical capacity limitations, universities have agreed to honour all offers made to date (including those made through clearing) and all offers to students who have now met their grade requirements with their new grades.

When it is not possible to accommodate all these students on their chosen course for the 20/21 academic year, universities are to offer a deferred place to start in the 21/22 academic year or a place on an alternative course.

In return, the DfE has removed the cap on medicine, dentistry, vet science and teaching numbers and universities will receive an additional teaching grant for high cost courses.

The universities have asked that these DfE concessions are extended to cover both 20/21 entry and 21/22 entry, allowing for an expanded 21/22 entry cohort to avoid, as far as possible, disadvantaging current year 12 students. So far, DfE have refused to make guarantees regarding the 21/22 entry cohort. This is one of the many, many things universities have requested urgent guidance on. Apparently in DfE's world, 'urgent' means 'at some point in the next year is just fine'.

Universities are offering financial incentives to current year 13s to defer because they cannot physically accommodate them for the 20/21 academic year. The legal, statutory and financial implications of rejecting people who have now met their offer, or actually forcing some accepted people to defer, are also urgent matters DfE will let the universities know about sometime.

Universities were expecting to receive the official revised results from UCAS today, so a bit more clarity about numbers of acceptances, deferrals, etc., should emerge over the next week or two.

My DD just starting year 13, has struggled to do much work during lockdown. She's now decided she doesn't want to go to university because of more competition, less places, up against this years year 13's with inflated grades, missing 4 months of year 12, only going back in September on alternate weeks with the year split in half. And her year is in a population surge year as well apparently. And if she defers to 2022 she'll be up against this years GCSE students with their inflated grades too. She just wants to chuck it and carry on in her retail job she's got part time currently. Can't blame her really. And I can't see anyone doing CAG for her year. Just normal exams which even without all the disruption can't compete with teacher estimates. The whole thing is utterly shit for them.

@Phphion

The deal struck between DfE and the universities today means that, barring exceptional physical capacity limitations, universities have agreed to honour all offers made to date (including those made through clearing) and all offers to students who have now met their grade requirements with their new grades.

When it is not possible to accommodate all these students on their chosen course for the 20/21 academic year, universities are to offer a deferred place to start in the 21/22 academic year or a place on an alternative course.

In return, the DfE has removed the cap on medicine, dentistry, vet science and teaching numbers and universities will receive an additional teaching grant for high cost courses.

The universities have asked that these DfE concessions are extended to cover both 20/21 entry and 21/22 entry, allowing for an expanded 21/22 entry cohort to avoid, as far as possible, disadvantaging current year 12 students. So far, DfE have refused to make guarantees regarding the 21/22 entry cohort. This is one of the many, many things universities have requested urgent guidance on. Apparently in DfE's world, 'urgent' means 'at some point in the next year is just fine'.

Universities are offering financial incentives to current year 13s to defer because they cannot physically accommodate them for the 20/21 academic year. The legal, statutory and financial implications of rejecting people who have now met their offer, or actually forcing some accepted people to defer, are also urgent matters DfE will let the universities know about sometime.

Universities were expecting to receive the official revised results from UCAS today, so a bit more clarity about numbers of acceptances, deferrals, etc., should emerge over the next week or two.

Thank you! This is really helpful.

What a mess.

@Phphion Yes, thank you.

Dd and I managed a couple of open day visits last year and the University of Sussex sent us a follow up email before the exam crisis.

They said that in view of all the disruption to the 2021 intake that they would be accepting lower A Level grades, so the course Dd wants dropped from AAB to BBC!

Surely this will be repeated in other institutions too unless the DofE decide on a reduced syllabus?

With a dd1 about to go into year 13 I share your concerns. Lack of open days could be an issue for less motivated students. I know my nephew massively improved his work ethic once he had settled on a University and a course and had an eye on the prize.

My dd1 had retained her motivation and worked hard in these difficult circumstances. But we've had many wobbles, and I'm having to be bright and breezey and positive in front of her with regards 2021 uni entry, whilst inside feeling frustrated and worried.

What bothers me is that in all the talk about schools going back, there's no emphasis on prioritising the new year's year 11 and year 13 students. I'd like a commitment that those students will continue to get at least 50% face to face lessons even if schools have to close again.

If schools have to close again, even if it’s just regionally or intermittently, might the teachers argue they don’t have enough evidence to award CAGs?

Hogh - yes I do realise that Durham are under a contractual obligation to students, but I doubt there was any clauses in there about “offering financial bursaries” to defer, or “those who defer will be guaranteed first choice accommodation.”

Meanwhile, those going into Year 13 are just wondering if they have a fair shot at a place, never mind what the accommodation is or bursaries! You can get all the A* in the world, but if half the places have gone before you even submit your UCAS, it’s hard to stay positive.

Reading a little bit further down (but not the whole piece, I must admit) than the headline Middle-class children may be forced to take gap year on the front page of the Times, presumably if this is taken at face value, Durham could take the financial sweetener out of their 'offer' and just say, You're not getting in this year, tough luck, to a number of their surplus offer holders, based on them not being disadvantaged.

Although I have read far enough down to note that some universities feel that they have done enough contextual offer confirming and / or judging some applicants' circumstances may not be as easy as it sounds / the directive may well e open to legal challenge anyway, so they may not actually comply...

If I wasn’t mad enough about the A Level grades, now the GCSE grades come out!

Last year at dd’s comprehensive two people (not dd!) got all 9s. This year twelve did. Funny how this year is so much cleverer than last year .

DD’s school have 99% 9-7 grades this year (89% 9-8). Some other so-called “super-selective” schools in the area don’t seem to be publishing their headline results as usual and I’m wondering if this is because literally everyone got 9s and 8s.

DD’s headteacher wrote a letter saying it would be insensitive to crow this year, which I felt was appropriate.

I am finally getting a bit agitated about this so am going to try to view this post as a therapeutic venting :-)

Rather stupidly, I hadn't until yesterday really registered that the new year 13s are in a really grim sandwich between the two sets of CAGs + uplift (and why did they still keep the moderation uplift in for gcse?)

I had a series of excited texts from friends with year 12 children in my son's schools and similar ones, with lots having straight 9s. I see in the papers that Grade 9s are 40% up this year, so this really isn't that surprising. Even if teachers were being wholly scrupulous I can totally see how this would happen - you have 10 pupils who could very reasonably expect to get a 9. In reality, a couple would make a silly error/ miss a question/ get unlucky on a more lightly revised topic/ have a bad day so only say 8 of them would actually get it. But the teacher has now way to guess who that would be, so gives them all a 9. Totally get it.

However, our children now have to either try to pick up what places are left at the top universities after deferrals, (and I agree that this particularly a top [10sh] institution problem) plus compete with upgrade reapplications with CAGs in hand, or delay a year and compete with pupils who have massively better GCSE grades (and who hopefully haven't missed over a term of full quality teaching of the a level syllabus).

Oh and in the case of Scottish students the whole of their own year competitors already have CAG highers in hand.

It really is profoundly depressing.