Going into Year 13 - Uni entry 2021 - have they been forgotten?

[albicocca]

Is anyone else concerned about the children just about to start Year 13 and their opportunities for university entry in 2021? I have seen virtually no discussion about how this A level shambles might effect them. It seems to me there will inevitably be fewer university places for next year. Many of those who planned to go to uni this year will be deferring their places to 2021 (indeed some universities are offering money for them to do so now!) resulting in far fewer places. The current group will also have (on average) higher grades than next years cohort. So those taking A levels in 2021 will be competing for fewer places with lower grades. Have they been forgotten? What is the government doing to protect their opportunities too?

@Revengeofthepangolins vent away!
I agree with you.
It is also down to us parents to gee up our DC going into Y13 but I for one am exhausted with it all. Added to that a bereavement, job and money worries - thank you covid - have taken it out on my nerves, I am angry that we are the ones trying to put a brave face on in front of our DC.
I really pray that DfE get their act together and publish figures re deferred places soon, then we may get some clarity, DDs 6th form wants personal statements ready to go at the start of term!

I think clarity at the earliest opportunity should be demanded. No obfuscation and “it’ll all be fine” platitudes. If there are only 50% places available at top universities then spit it out, don’t mislead the next round of applicants.

I appreciate that right now the situation is unclear, but here institutions are always trumpeting about fairness, so be fair then!

I think something needs to be done about the year 13s applying with inflated grades in hand. I saw on the TSR several people saying they were going to reapply to Oxbridge now as they’d met the grade requirements. Obviously they’re most definitely not shoe-ins, but it not only muddies the waters but creates a deluge of muddy water.

The NEU are also very concerned about this but considering the hatchet job the press have done on the unions, I fully expect them to be dismissed as moaning lefties, which is a shame because they are only trying to make things better for the children in the long run.

It is also down to us parents to gee up our DC going into Y13 but I for one am exhausted with it all

Gosh - yes. Me too. So much of my head space was taken up with dd1 between March and July of her Year 12, trying to keep her spirits up each time they were crushed, and generally she's a level headed, pragmatic girl. I fear there will be many more of these instances during Y13 - college closure, teachers off ill, cancelled open days etc...

several people saying they were going to reapply to Oxbridge now as they’d met the grade requirements.

However (assuming you mean the ones who either never applied or were rejected pre or post interview), those who 'took' A levels this year actually took real GCSEs in 2018 and some of them real AS levels in 2019, all of which have to be made visible to the universities via UCAS. Plus, they will still have the sifting of those subject tests that are still running, submitted marked work and, if they get that far, interviews. It isn't all A level grades for O and C, is it, even if you do have to get them in the end, having gone through the rest of it?

As a "middle classed" parent of a "middle classed" child in an (not super selective) independent school though, it's gets even worse, if it is true that disadvantaged children are also to be given priority. I get it, I really do, but it doesn't stop me feeling so sorry for DD who has worked so hard, even with all her privileges, from bottom of the class in year 7, to top now, and she may well be discriminated against for her parents being wealthy.

She actually only just realised that students being deferred to next year meant they already had a guaranteed place, she had thought that meant they had to re-apply, so she may still have had a chance, now she's even more disheartened.

But Irma, Oxford and Cambridge etc will know, looking at the applications, that the 2020 grades are, in effect, on a par with the pre-A level teacher predictions. So I would have thought the post A level applicants will have no advantage over the pre A level applicants, in reality. Apart from the fact that a wodge of available places will have gone. Those aptitude tests will be pretty key, for Oxford, but I reckon the grades are neutral.

In fact I'd say, if the unis want to revert to manageable numbers, they should make far fewer offers for 2021 to those with achieved grades and make lots of offers to applicants who seem aspirational (with the assumption that they won't make their predicted grades) and make a smaller cluster of offers to the really strong looking pre A level applicants.

I don’t think they will have an advantage, but the numbers will be swelled. And Oxbridge will possibly be forced (or want) to declare that the post A Level candidates won’t in their turn be discriminated against because their grades may have been inflated.

I think Cambridge will have to change their modus operandi and focus more on GCSE results (for this year, anyway, not for next!!!) and entrance exams and certainly not over offer. If CAGS happen again (and we never know...) they will have to do something drastic and say that 50% of people have to live at home and work online.

I also have a Y12 and the huge uplift in grades has been very demoralising for her. Some schools have really taken advantage.

DS1's former school originally claimed to have had 30% of their predictions downgraded which sounds reasonable BUT about half of their entries were already awarded As so can't be upgraded. This means that it is actually 60% of the original grades that have been increased by using CAGs, giving a total of nearly 59% at A and over 90% at A*/A.

I live in SW London pushy parent land and to date I haven't heard of a single DC being awarded a grade below an A. The so called "gold standard" British A levels have been completely devalued and the only way for the qualification to maintain any credibility is business as usual next year and sacrifice our Y12s. Having said that I do think that 2020 will be seen as an *year for qualifications for years, they won't be seen as real grades and that is hard on the pupils who genuinely would have made their grades.

I don't think you need to panic too much about next year for a number of reasons

Firstly the current y13 is the smallest year group for many years and the rising y13s, though starting to increase, is still significantly smaller than university capacity. Universities have been struggling for years with smaller groups and even with the increase the level of competition is still likely to be less than in 3/4 years time when the baby boom hits 6th form

Secondly and most importantly there is likely to be a fall of at least 50% in EU students coming to the uk with the new fee regime. Most unis are looking to recruit EU students to replace lost income not lost student numbers (ie expecting 40% fewer students but fees increasing by a similar amount so overall income is the same) this should free up places for home students.

I doubt that international students numbers will totally rebound next year either tbh. I think it will take a couple of years to recover.

I really don't think it will be all that bad. These places are obviously very competitive every year and I don't think this will significantly shift the odd of getting in.

I've suggested to my own DD that she keep her certificate of results day grades as well as her CAGs/ November certificates to show that her As were well deserved ('3 A, as moderated down' :)). I agree that the grades as a whole are devalued.

That sounds re-assuring but if a vaccine is found within the next 12 months which seems very likely then the UK could end up with a double whammy of overseas students for next year, those who deferred and those in the correct year group.

It may not make a huge difference to the number of uni places overall but there are small intakes at some of the most competitive unis on the more popular courses. And as someone drafted in to help with grad interviews I am very aware that we recruit from the same small pool of unis every year so I don't find the idea that there will be places available at other unis on similar courses particularly comforting.

Any increases in overseas deferrals are really very likely to be cancelled out by lower EU numbers though.

Crashing economies/recessions also affect international student enrolment and we are likely to see a fair bit of that.

The more competitive unis/courses will have more EU students (20% of imperial UG cohort for example) so will be more affected.

I really do think it will all even out. That being said if a particular course/uni is the goal and your child is unsuccessful but then gets the grades they can always take a gap year and apply again.

Thanks @booellesmum and @boys3 for your replies. I am really torn about whar is best for DS. I have spoken to his HoY who says they will support him in whatever he chooses but gave us no clue as to what she actually thinks would be best for him. I actually wish they would be a bit more directive. I've never had a child apply for University before as my eldest took a different route and its all very different to the mid 80s when I was applying. So I was a bit anxious before any of this and now even more so. And I just dont trust this government to do anything right, or fairly.
DS isn't Oxbridge material but should be capable of going to a "good" University under normal circumstances but who knows now? I am just hoping that the Universities remember that this year group is (probably) going to be the only one of 3 who is presenting with grades at both GCSE and A level that actually come from exams. I suppose that's the main thing that is stopping me from advising him just to forget about UCAS, concentrate on getting the best grades he can and then apply next year. I'm just a bit worried that if he is applying out of his actual cohort that might be forgotten. He has good but not exceptional GCSE results which I think would look fine in the context of his actual year group, but compared to the year below, maybe not. There seem to be loads of kids local to us who have been awarded all 9s or mainly 9s and a couple of 8s. I am not blaming them, or the schools and completely understand the rationale, but the fact remains that not all of these results would have been achieved by exam. And indeed that had our kids been awarded results by CAG then quite a few would have received higher grades too.
It doesn't help that DS has some health issues and may need surgery at some point during this year, though I am hoping not. Oh and I will probably lose my job before Christmas but we are trying to keep that quiet from the kids so as not to cause additional worry. But basically its all a pile of shit. And none of it is my lovely, hard working son's fault. I am so sad and angry.

Sorry....there were paragraphs when I typed.

I am still not confident that the number of EU students will fall. There is plenty of time for the UK/EU govts to agree some kind of reciprocal arrangement before 31/12 and I suspect that the details may already have been agreed. I say this as someone who works on a European project (we don't use the B word) for a completely different industry where everything is supposed to be completely in the air but in fact everyone knows what's happening because we have to trade to survive.

Meanwhile DD's not very selective school has announced 70% A*/A at A level this year, a new record! Who would have thought it! I'm not looking at DS2's school.

It’s fairly sobering looking at applicant numbers in the round historically, which I did last night. Everyone claimed this year would be easier due to the demographic dip . However in 2016 about 16.5k students applied to C for 3.4k places and it has climbed steadily to 20.5k roughly this year, an 18% increase! I think it was even more for O. Excellent that many able kids apply, unenviable task to choose from the pool, made even worse by this farce.

www.ucas.com/data-and-analysis/undergraduate-statistics-and-reports/ucas-undergraduate-releases/applicant-releases-2020/2020-cycle-applicant-figures-30-june-deadline

International applicants continue to increase, China, US and India being the largest group of applicants, almost double those from the EU. I wonder how many of these become firm offer holders, and in turn, actually arrive to start their courses.

According to a post on the 2020 Oxbridge thread, Cambridge need to absorb an additional 1200 students from this year now.

As one of those on the 2020 threads, nobody I'm aware of plans to defer unless forced to. DD's friends will do almost anything to go away next month, even if it means compromising on their choice. I think you are worrying needlessly.

There are some cheeky gits on the TSR saying they intend to start at a university but put in an application to Oxbridge this autumn. Luckily they were told their fortune!

I am still not confident that the number of EU students will fall. There is plenty of time for the UK/EU govts to agree some kind of reciprocal arrangement before 31/12

If that were to happen, I think it would be very problematic and I (staunch Remain voter) would have every sympathy with those who decry the EU as a racist project. It would be one thing to seek to uphold the Erasmus arrangement (which I hope they do) but quite another for UK taxpayers to fund the fees of EU students (many of whom return to their home countries and do not repay the loans) while charging eyewatering fees to students from our former colonies. And trying to explain such an arrangement in the context of a squeeze for places in 2021 would be interesting for the government, to say the least.

Re PP about the 2020 cohort not wanting to defer, I don't think the "I'd rather go next year which might be more fun" argument is what is worrying people. It is children being REQUIRES to defer if they want to take up their original or CAG - rescued offers.

Hence I don't think it is surprising that Durham are offering bursaries for volunteers - I am sure university would much rather solve their gallon into a pint pot problem with willing deferers than plunge into the political nightmare of forcing people to. How on earth would they choose who to pick? If they favour those who got places on aug 13 will they be accused of hurting the disadvantaged? But how can they take 2020 places away from those who have been told they have them? Nightmare.
The sinister bit of the Durham offer of course is the "guaranteed accommodation", underlining that something that was previously a given may well now be a perk.

DD rang one of her potential uni choices today and was told no information available re numbers and to ring back early November not useful advice if applications For med vet etc to be in by October 15! ( not applicable to her)