Going into Year 13 - Uni entry 2021 - have they been forgotten?

[albicocca]

Is anyone else concerned about the children just about to start Year 13 and their opportunities for university entry in 2021? I have seen virtually no discussion about how this A level shambles might effect them. It seems to me there will inevitably be fewer university places for next year. Many of those who planned to go to uni this year will be deferring their places to 2021 (indeed some universities are offering money for them to do so now!) resulting in far fewer places. The current group will also have (on average) higher grades than next years cohort. So those taking A levels in 2021 will be competing for fewer places with lower grades. Have they been forgotten? What is the government doing to protect their opportunities too?

Which courses do we think will be the most problematic and not able to expand numbers for this year?

What I'm saying is that many in the 2020 intake would prefer to drop down into their insurance slot or take a place in clearing than be forced to defer. Going somewhere/anywhere in September is preferable to waiting another 12 months to get on with their lives. Some of the less supportive universities are rapidly losing goodwill.

In all fairness Sewingbeefan some big names have told offer holders that they may not receive a decision on 2020 until 7 September. I doubt if they are really that bothered about 2021 yet.

@Hoghgyni I agree and there is a need to be patient. I think poor DD was just trying to be proactive! My worry is that they wont be bothered for a few months yet , well into the application process.
We know nothing concrete at this stage .

I meant to add September the 7th must feel like ages away!!!

Goodbye - yes we have printed out a 13 August results notification too for the same purpose.

@Hoghgyni

What I'm saying is that many in the 2020 intake would prefer to drop down into their insurance slot or take a place in clearing than be forced to defer. Going somewhere/anywhere in September is preferable to waiting another 12 months to get on with their lives. Some of the less supportive universities are rapidly losing goodwill.

I imagine that must be true - an unexpected gap year in the current environment lacks appeal and there seems to have been a huge difference in how different institutions are handling this, in form if not substance

@Fortyfifty

Which courses do we think will be the most problematic and not able to expand numbers for this year?

I would guess medicine and its friends (even with cap lifted) and lab- heavy subjects. But accommodation I suspect will be a major constraint over all

SeasonFinale same boat! Students at DD's school went in and were all issued with a nice school crested certificate, so quite smart - and no printing required :)

But more seriously, it's a bit too easy for people to talk about 'inflated grades'. It's probably fair to say that those whose CAGs were the same as the Ofqual moderated grades fully deserved them. And there will be a fair few of those students about.

Like - 60%.

I’ve decided to try and be a bit positive . The whole point of giving the CAGs out in the end was to avoid the accusations that those in more disadvantaged schools were not unfairly affected by the algorithm. So what is the point of the attempts to help this years’ disadvantaged carry over to exacerbate the chances of next year’s disadvantaged who will actually be even more disadvantaged due to gaps in teaching. . It makes no sense...

I’m not holding my breath for GW to grasp the implications of what’s happening, but surely someone will?

Maybe what they’ll have to do is offer the normal amount if places next year but, when the offers are issued, invite students to defer? It could well go on for years...,

Though I do have a sneaky suspicion that conditional offers will be much lower next year as they already will have the “buffer” of the ones deferring from this year. This is the problem for our DC.

Revenge. That's what I feared. DD will be applying for a lab-based course.

PMK

I think you will find that your concerns, though understandable, prove to be baseless.

Universities have consistently said, throughout the process, that decisions taken this year can't be allowed to disadvantage next year's cohort.

I'm sure that, if deferrals to 2021 are higher than usual, and cannot be compensated for by other factors, universities will be seeking the increase of any caps and appropriate funding.

Try not to worry yet or inadvertently pass your worries to your children. Universities only received new A level grades yesterday and are still in the process of placing for next month. In time, their attentions will turn to 2021.

Thank you @rawlikesushi for your calming words!

As crap as it is for Y12s I still prefer having a DC who will actually sit the exams because the 2020 results will never be accepted as proper A levels. I have been reading why the Labour party object to using teacher predictions for results and I was actually quite shocked that teachers predictions have been proven to be so biased. For a profession that sees itself as so right on and politically correct they obviously need to take a good hard look in the mirror. My concern now also extends to those DCs in the groups constantly underrated by their teachers who would have totally outperformed their predictions.

Meanwhile I am loving the Y13 parents posting on MN claiming that their DCs deserve their inflated grades because they missed out on proms and 18th birthday parties!!!! Only on MN.

Marking my spot as another concerned parent

The big issue for current Y10s and Y12s, Is the negligible tinkering of the exam formats in 2021. It’s risible that Ofqual have given current Y13s an Y11s such an easy ride with exam results. It’s important exams happen in 2021, but there will have to be more culling to the exams, or options Elemis being examined. I have current Y10 and Y12 sons. We aren’t going to be successful, but we are ready for the big summer flick in 2021 ‘Exams FuckU 2‘.

Ignore the typo ‘Elemis’. I meant to write ‘optional elements’

@cakeisalwaystheanswer I am not only a parent of a year 13 but also a teacher of 40 of them too. I hope no one ever insults you or your child like you have insulted me and mine. I am exhausted after spending the last week trying to secure the futures of students whose grades were given fairly by me but the government decided they must be marked down because a stupid computer said so. I don't know one student who has over inflated grades, but then I work in the state sector and would have been fired if we had done so.
As for bias, you need to check your facts. A lot of schools, mine included, did the first ranking blind so I could only see data. The final tweak did involve names because these are people who have lives. Some have had tough times and I could take account of that in final ranking. My CAGs were based on 2 years of evidence. How did you do yours since you know so much about it ?
I am angry at the belittling of teachers and students efforts. I hope your year 12 does not get the same treatment next year - the dumbed down A levels are worthless because they don't have all the content. Whatever happened to be kind.

@portico teachers are fighting for the exams to be modified. We know there is going to be disruption this year.

I think it's fairly unarguable that a good old wodge of CAGs were aspirational mumsneedwine, because of the very, very significant hike in results. No-one in education is really arguing that the CAGs were the perfect result.

cakeisalways the answer it's also unarguable that almost all of those whose moderated grades were the same as their CAGs (as in my DD's case) fully deserved those grades, and that they weren't inflated. And that's an awful lot of students.

Not sure how it will play out. Work in HE and have a child going into Y13.

I think Russell Group/selective subjects will have a good percentage of referrals. Though they’ve taken the cap off for numbers (not for selective course though), and we can fewer international students in the sector this year, plus 18 year olds really want to leave home and go to uni. So we might find by the end of next week that we’ve absorbed a lot of the students who want to go this year and deferral rates will be smaller than feared.

Next year, I suspect we will still be down on international students and possibly European students. It’s still the smaller demographic year (births really started to climb in 2004 and 2005). So hopefully it will be ok. I’m more worried about the loss of 6 months teaching in the state sector and also kids applying to unis they’ve only seen virtually. My kid is young in the year and I’ve said defer application if you are sure about things but they really want to go.

In fact my rand hind from the last few weeks is never to underestimate how much an 18 year old wants to go to uni. The current prospect is overprescribed course, with social distancing and virtual teaching anticipates for most of the next academic session. But numbers still look like they will be OK (they were fine even on Ofqual as we just did the usual adjustment and clearing and things were settling).

Rand hind *take home

This might be interesting as to the 'over inflated' grades. Remember students were given the higher of the CAG or algorithm. Yes I gave CAGs that I thought students could achieve on a good day - I can't account for a bad day on the off the chance they had one. But that meant a B rather than a C.

schoolsweek.co.uk/from-1-to-8-the-exams-algorithms-bizarre-grade-hikes/