Going into Year 13 - Uni entry 2021 - have they been forgotten?

[albicocca]

Is anyone else concerned about the children just about to start Year 13 and their opportunities for university entry in 2021? I have seen virtually no discussion about how this A level shambles might effect them. It seems to me there will inevitably be fewer university places for next year. Many of those who planned to go to uni this year will be deferring their places to 2021 (indeed some universities are offering money for them to do so now!) resulting in far fewer places. The current group will also have (on average) higher grades than next years cohort. So those taking A levels in 2021 will be competing for fewer places with lower grades. Have they been forgotten? What is the government doing to protect their opportunities too?

But mumsneedwine I would expect the data will show - when published - that only a tiny percentage of grades were moved up through moderation, compared to those moved down. I think Scotland has already said that that was so north of the border.

@goodbyestranger I hate to say this but it depends on the type is school. We had a student who we predicted a C get a U, because last year we had a U so someone this year had to get one too. Really unfair as he was a C student for 2 years. Is this over inflation by the teacher, or a ridiculous computer decision.
Conversely some schools quite rightly predicted a B, but because no one had got a B before they got an A*. Again unfair.
Because the students now have the best grade given results have been inflated more than they should be. Again I can only predict a grade from the evidence I have and I can't account for no revision, exam nerves, panic, answering the wrong question. But teachers did their best I hope.

Of course the percentages will vary across schools mumsneedwine, that was the pivotal point accounting for the various UK government U turns!

And in fact it's not to do with best grade given mumsneedwine. That merely exacerbates the inflation. The hike in grades from last year is already huge just between CAGs and moderated grades, as issued on results day.

As I keep saying. The reason for the grade inflation was because teachers can only give predictions based on a good day. So no one had a bad day, which is obviously unrealistic. But the inflation would be one grade. Unless a school went mad and moved C to A * (like the algorithm did for some private schools).
What would you have had teachers do ? Say, well Johnny might muck up so I'll give him a B, but lovely Sally won't do so she can have an A. When their data has been exactly the same for 2 years ?

No-one is quarrelling with the fact that teachers overwhelmingly erred on the good day side mumsneedwine. The issue was with the algorithm, and that influenced teachers too, assuming the CAGs would be moderated down. It's been handled breathtakingly badly from start to finish.

Another one with a yr 12 student. I am trying to remain calm however agree that the year 12 situation is much worse than the current year 13s. I can only hope that this issue is nearing the top of someone's list so that it can be discussed and sorted well in advance of next year. The issues I see are:

• massive difference in the amount of schooling year 12s have received due to shutdown - some had on-line lessons, some very patchy provision (more likely to affect disadvantaged children)
• difficult to continue with on-going assessment during lockdown time
• potential for more disruption if local lockdowns are enforced
• all the uni stuff - open days, availability of places
• if there are no exams next year how will grades be calculated, if there are will it be fair anyway
• if it is perceived (and possibly proven) that some schools inflated grades and got away with it, how will schools react next year if the same prediction situation occurs (not suggesting teachers are unprofessional here but it will be difficult surely?)
• will uni's start to cherry pick students earlier to get the 'best' based on schools past performance/their knowledge?

It would be good to say that all the year 12s are in the same boat, but they aren't are they. I trust DDs school 100% and am waiting to see what communications we get from this regarding this and just telling DD to keep her head down and continue to work her socks off.

@goodbyestranger on that we can agree 😊.

For year 12 parents I'd just say sit tight and believe that teachers will fight their corner all year. Once we've got this fiasco sorted - and it isn't yet as our school have the BTEC issue to sort out this week and poor IB kids have been forgotten - we will be onto the exams next year with a vengeance. As long as we don't get sick due to the complete lack of any PPE or SD in schools. Keep your fingers crossed 🤞

I am so cross at this cock-up. There was plenty of time to come up with a plan that was neither algorithm nor teacher assessed grades. I would have gone with CAGS but asked for submitted evidence of anomalies - ie if 30 pupils this year were getting all 9s and only 2 last year, what accounts for this sudden rise in performance?

But what’s done is done. I can’t see a solution. I only hope that GCSE grades are the decider for this year’s university entry as they were the last “fair” grades.

@goodbyestranger

But mumsneedwine I would expect the data will show - when published - that only a tiny percentage of grades were moved up through moderation, compared to those moved down. I think Scotland has already said that that was so north of the border.

My school does IGs, so we know the algorithm grades and the final grades. In my subject (hums, small for us but popular overall) we had six students moderated up from the CAGs, and two down, with a cohort of 26. However, the two moved down by one grade, the the six moved up by at least two grades, in some cases by three. Four have now passed from a predicted fail. Obviously the data will vary massively between schools and types of schools, but for us the algorithm was far more generous.

@Ulelia we had 85% unchanged. But the 15% were savaged. C to U mainly. We got 5 U in one subject but have only ever had 1 in the previous 5 years, so no idea why. One student went from BBB to DEU. Again made no sense. Our results overall were 10% lower than they have ever been. We think because we have big cohorts. Was the most distressing results day I've ever known for some. Most got what they expected and deserved.

I had a sense of the foreboding that was Covid, back in January. I got online subscriptions to all subjects fir my Y10 and Y12, and amassed all the topical qns I could lay my hands on.

You can never replace teachers, but my Y10 has Come close and managed to completed syllabus for Eng Lit, Maths, Chemistry, Biology, Almost with Physics, Geography And RS. Long way to go with Economics and MFL.

Useless teaching provision stopped us in our tracks, as we were compelled to understand substandard school work; a tick box exercise, really.

My Y12 also has online videos and topical exam qns. Why couldn’t the school muster up the same.

Typos - undertake not understand

My daughter's state sixth form college has been amazing. So positive, can do and supportive. In the circumstances they have done their best. It is shocking to hear of a similar sixth form college int he next county leaving its students to fend for themselves.

Just place-marking, as DS is heading into Y13 and is thoroughly pi**ed about the whole sorry mess.

Have state schools really lost 6 months? I keep seeing this figure bandied around but March to July is 4 months. Still not good, I know but surely not six months?

Ulelia at our school the trend was overwhelmingly down for those where the CAGs changed, not up.

Yes you're right seedybird. They will have been out of school for just under 6 months by the time they have returned,but 6 or 7 weeks of that would have been the summer holidays anyway. So they've not missed 6 months of teaching. That said, I think the point that they've had the best part of half a year away from the classroom is significant when you consider the potential difficulties of settling back in this term. But I agree that its an exaggeration that they have missed 6 months worth of learning. I suspect its being said for different reasons in different quarters. There are probably some wanting political mileage out of it, but others perhaps just feel that saying young people have missed a term of school doesn't sound very long and underplays the situation. A term is at least a fifth of the time normally taken to complete the A level syllabi in most schools so it is a big chunk of course, but to people who don't have children in school at present, that might not hit home, so I suspect some are saying 6 months to try to make it clear how serious the situation is.

What is supposed to be a thread for Y12 parents is full of Y13 ones justifying their DCs inflated grades. There can be no argument that these grades are too high because they are so out of sink with other years results and it has caused a crisis for uni places. There are lots of Y13 threads so if you want to shout and justify the upgrades why not shout there and leave this thread for Y12 parents?

I have a friend who had already paid a deposit at a crammer for retakes because she knew her DS had done so little work his grades would be terrible, 3As! She is trying to get a refund. As he was expecting to retake he didn't even apply properly this year and he will be competing against current Y12s for uni places. His GCSE grades are poor so hopefully that will stand out. Applicants like him are far more of a problem than the current Y12s who actually have to sit exams and at least are all in the same boat work wise with missed schooling etc.

We seem to have mob rule at the moment so if our year group makes enough noise then we get to pass the problems down to the next year. At least they will have benefited from the smaller grade inflation to their GCSE results.

@cakeisalwaystheanswer I am a teacher of year 12 and we are fighting for exam changes. Have been since May. Although my year 12s going into 13 are scheduled to finish in Feb as we have no practicals to do. So loads of revision time. On line learning ready to go too in case we shut again.
You carry on insulting the students from this year. But be warned, the same will happen to your child next year. It will be said they didn't do proper exams because content was cut. Not the students fault but it will happen. And it's not nice or kind,

Many deserved their grades, of course.

But it is galling to read on the student room on a thread for “Oxbridge rejects” that everyone is reapplying with yay! 3A*s. Someone asked (well, it was a dad, I think, as everyone on TSR appears to be a parent...) if Oxford would discriminate against yr13 with achieved grades and incredibly dispiritingly a college replied and said not at all as they deserved their grades.

For dd to be unsuccessful against her cohort, well, that’s fine, and even against the previous few post A Level applicants, again fine. But it is NOT fine to have to jostle with people who have falsely got their foot in the door.

And as for the universities without entrance exams... what a shambles.

It is a bit grim to think about there possibly being loads more top grade holders reapplying next year, especially for an already diminished number of places, but it is going to be a long old year., so I think we probably need to dial things back a little.

And let's not scare off all of last year's Y13 parents - they have loads of experience of the university applying process to share. I don't think anyone feels personally antagonistic to that cohort - they didn't choose this situation any more than our lot did :-).

Mumsneedwine, I do understand your position, I really do, and I also have empathy with this year's cohort of school leavers/progressors. But the fact remains that there are entirely too many 9's and A's, which are usually only awarded, as you know, on the moderated curve of entire population cohort. Any teacher or parent may think that their children are top of the year, and they may well be, but against other schools they may well not be, and that is what has been missed this year. It is for this reason, many schools have never predict 9's or A's before this year, as you can't reasonably make that assessment, unless you know how everyone else is going to do. Anyway, moving on.....

Let's get going for this term, and get those UCAS in. Personally we are going to put down those universities which DD wants regardless, and see how the offers unfold. If it means deferring or re-applying, so be it, we will handle that when we come to it.

Just as an aside, does anyone know how many offers are NOT made to applicants in any standard year? I don't know of anyone who has not been offered a place on any of their choices on their applications (other than vets and medics), so I am not sure of how common it is?

(or Oxbridge of course!)