Lets get this into perspective: Quick Survey -Do you know anyone that has had/has Swine Flu?

[NorbertDentressangle]

...and I don't mean that you've "heard that someone at X school/street/place" has had it, I mean someone that you actually know really has had it/has got it.

I don't know anyone that has and wondered if thats the case for the majority of people on here or not?

Ds's best friend's sister has it (in same class as both of them). Baby sister of one of DD's friends at pre school also has it.

I know 3 probables and one confirmed - all children. Plus a suspected adult and two adults who have had 'heavy colds' and are still clearly unwell.

So. That's quite a few of us then, actually?

no one. i'm in leeds and work with about 400 other staff in a big store.

Two people I know have had it (one is unwell atm).

XH works with a colleague who has it

yes

Yes. Myself, DH and DS. Children and staff at DS' nursery also

Yes, the family next door and a work colleague.

I can't help thinking that it's not swine flu that all those people have.

The only posts where you could convince me it actually is swine flu are the ones where loads of people in one school or area have it. As actual swine flu is going to spread v v quickly, so we're told?

Obviously it has to start with one or two people but I can't believe that there aren't more people who know of widespread outbreaks, if this is really something to worry about.

Ok, so maybe it's just about to start, I don't know.

I know someone who thinks their whole family have had it, but it sounded like the cold that my DD and I have at the moment (bit of a sore throat and she had a slight temp last night).

I mean if you had asked the question pre-swine flu "how may people do you know who have had a bit of a virus with a temperature over the last few weeks", how many people would have said that amongst all their family, friends and acquaintances there were "yes, one or two".

My brother, his wife, his two children (confirmed with swabs - in West Mids)

Three friends who live in Tower Hamlets (GP confirmed without swabs)

And apparently us but I don't believe it was (that's me and the DCs - DH appears to be immune!)

HPA weekly epidemiolgy report

Nope

In winter, lots of people would say they knew one or two people who'd had a bit of a virus with a temperature. In July, far fewer would normally say that.

It might be impossible to say for sure that any one person def has swine flu rather than any old virus, but the fact that there are so many new cases of flu-like illnesses in general tells us that there's something unusual going on.

If we didn't already know there was a new pandemic flu strain out there, we'd be deducing it from what GPs and hospitals are reporting about a surge in flu-like illnesses that's never usually seen in the summer.

Thank you WilfSell, that's interesting.

However surely the increase in people consulting GPs about "flu-like illness" etc must be a good deal influenced by the media/hype around swine flu.

I'm sure you're right that a large proportion of the HPA data are worried well reporting colds. Statistically, there must be a reasonable margin of error. I don't know how the HPA are allowing for that.

But if you look down the sheet there is also 'sentinel' testing which is interesting (I think this means that they are still actually testing a sample of presumed cases with swabs in order to get a picture of what is really going on)...

and even the microbiology is showing a substantial increase in the last couple of weeks. In fact, I imagine that the sentinel figure is an underestimate because of the time it must take to get back accurate results.

Yes, 7 friends have it, all have been confirmed and given tami flu.

My mum and two people at my son's school.
Also expat.

where in Leeds ruddynorah? I'm N Leeds and we have several confirmed cases at the school/in the local area. I think this is probably the start of it and it'll snowball from here on in.

Squeakywheel - but is it a surge is what I'm asking?

People, esp children, do get viruses in the summer as well as winter (I've often had a bad "summer cold").

And more specifically, if we didn't know about swine flu, would there be a surge in people consulting GPs. I don't think there has yet been a surge in hopsitals having to deal with flu-like illnesses? (I don't think, I may well be talking b, so do correct me if wrong).

We declined Tamiflu. I mean, it was 10 days after DD1 fell ill that she was even tested. She was already on the mend! Ditto the rest of us by the time we were confirmed.

There was no point and I thought it was a stupid policy from the get-go to hand it out to folks who weren't even ill when it was mild to begin with.

That's just bound to stuff things up later.

Pretty sure I've just had it - live in high risk area (West Mids) and became ill after visit to London last week.

I know (personally) 2 people who have been tested and been +ve and about 3 more who've been told they probably have it but who won't be tested.

I live in London.

I think DS2 had it because 15 children in his (East London) reception class and both TAs had it earlier this week, he had a playdate on the previous Friday with one of these children and then developed temp of 38.5 and headache and cough. However, he wanted to go into school as had 100% attendance to date and didn't want time off and Calpol really reduced the severity of symptoms. I thought all the kids must have been exposed anyhow so let him go, didn't consult GP or anything, he seems fine now.

DS1 and I also had headaches and I had a temperature of 38.5 for one day and felt clammy, also have had a bad cough. Would have normally thought it was a cold so don't know if it was swine flu or not.

ottersRus - see news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8154419.stm about half way down.

"In England, the rate of calls to NHS Direct is four times higher than would be expected for the winter, while the number of people in hospital has doubled to 652. Some 53 of these are in a critical condition."

In the worst hit areas, hospitals have reported having wards full of children with swine flu, while GP practices have said they are seeing between 50 and 60 flu cases a day."

"Every region of England has seen a rise in demand for services during the past seven days with only Yorkshire and the Humber not now reporting "exceptional" levels."

They're not assessing swine flu cases just by counting people phoning up being worried about cold symptoms. There really are more people becoming ill (though then most do get better quickly by themselves).