Ed Davey as Leader of the Opposition is SO CLOSE

[noblegiraffe]

The final MRP poll from Survation puts the Lib Dems and Tories within a gnat's whisker of each other.

Sam Freedman says:
'“If any doubt arises as to which is or was at any material time the party in opposition to Her Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons, or as to who is or was at any material time the leader in that House of such a party, the question shall be decided for the purposes of this Act by the Speaker of the House of Commons, and his decision, certified in writing under his hand, shall be final and conclusive.”

So if one party is clearly ahead then their leader is LOTO. But if it’s more complex - say, the Tories won 75 seats and the Lib Dems 73, and then two Alliance MPs from Northern Ireland said they’d sit with the Lib Dems - well the Speaker will have to get involved and make a call.'

The thought of the Tories losing so badly that they don't even get to be the official party of opposition is within our grasp.

I've heard that the Lib Dems now think they have a chance of winning places like Witney where they didn't think they had a hope at the start.

https://tactical.vote tells you who to vote for to get the Tories out and make them irrelevant.

This thread has made my day. Thank you for it. :-)

Let’s hope not, he’s an utter clown

One lesson that Scotland has signalled to UK government is the need to have a strong opposition. It's really not healthy to have such a dominant party with no accountability. That's why Scotland is a shitshow making poor policy that doesn't stand up to the slightest scrutiny.

I think we're agreed Labour will win the election. Equally important is who comes second. There has to be challenge or we won't have good governance. Labour haven't been a good opposition.

I worked in policy for a charity at the time of the Coalition government. I think the Lib Dems did a lot to temper the more extreme ideas of the Tories. After many years of criticising from the sidelines, they were very surprised to suddenly be in power (weak as that power was). They made some grave errors and I don't think the electorate have forgotten that yet.

I believe our biggest issue is that a lot of the good people have gone. In Scotland, Labour have had to ship in a lot of candidates as there aren't local people willing/able/sufficiently compliant to step forward. (The Westminster SNP contingent are a joke other than Joanna Cherry (very unpopular within her own party)).

I'm finding it all so depressing. (But I do think Kemi Badenoch would be a fantastic Leader of the Opposition)

It's bizarre to think that people might not forgive the Lib Dems the 'grave errors' made as part of a weak partner in a coalition, in favour of the fucking Tories who have deliberately screwed everyone over for the last 14 years.

Ooh, I wouldn't want the Lib Dems have any power because of tuition fees so I'd rather it was the Tories whose actual policy it was. Ooh but they reneged on their pledge - look at what the Tories have done as a comparison.

Batshit.

I forgave them for tuition fees because I thought they were the most sensible party during the Brexit era but they've turned into absolute loons in the last five years. I can't believe people haven't noticed. I guess when you're neither in government nor in opposition you can be nuttier than squirrel shit and it will mostly fly under the radar.

It is a crazy thought but if it happened then it’s a sign the UK is really changing. It’s only ever been small c conservative in my life. A Labour Liberal dominated UK political scene? Quite amazing.

but they've turned into absolute loons in the last five years. I can't believe people haven't noticed

Have you not noticed what the Tories have been up to??

They are both equally loony but in different policy areas.

Just imagine on Friday if we had a Labour government, a Lib Dem opposition and Farage had failed to get elected for the eighth time. I know there isn't a poll that supports this specific dream, but wouldn't it be delightful.

Talking of strong opposition, the Tory party is going to collapse in a smouldering heap and then Farage is going to make his move. Is that what people think strong opposition looks like?

😍😍😍

Particularly as a contrast to what is happening elsewhere.

Choose between Farage being elected or LibDem opposition 😄

Oh that is a cruel choice! Farage not winning his seat and Reform fucking off into obscurity would be such a good outcome.

Wrt the Conservatives post election, I think Rishi will be resign on Friday morning. It'll be that bad he'll have to.

Then I think they'll get a right of party leader. Conservatives will go very right wing. And consequently will lose the 2029 general election. They'll get rid of right wing leader and will find a Centralist leader for the 2034 election, when they'll have a chance of winning.

A bit like Labour with Jeremy Corbyn and then Keir Starmer.

I like it when we have two parties in the centre and slightly left and right. Not extremists. I am not sure why they both think that's ever a good idea.

My constituency was the safest in England once and has always been blue. Every poll predicts it becoming Labour tomorrow. I think anything's possible. I have never seen an election anything like this in the 52 years since I got the vote.

Kemi is on very thin ice thanks to the government she's been in fucking up the postal voting.

I suspect she won't appreciate the irony, which means there's more for the rest of us.

That tactical voting website doesn't have an option for my constituency! It's been blue for as long as I've lived here (17 years) and never a smidge of anything else. But the yellows are campaigning HARD, I've lost count of the number of leaflets! I don't understand the websites that suggest tactical voting red, that's always been third place and by a long way.

The Survation Poll is the only one putting the Lib Dems ahead of Cons, Savanata has it pretty close between them but Cons slightly ahead.

The most recent polling, published by YouGov, today shows:

Lab 425
Con 98
Lib 72
SNP 18
PC 3
Ref 3
Grn 2

YouGov also say the following Cabinet Ministers look set to lose their seats:

To Lib Dems
Jeremy Hunt
Alex Chalke
Michelle Donelan
Gillian Keegan
Michael Tomlinson
Lucy Frazer

To Labour
Grant Shapps
Mark Harper
David T C Davies
Steve Baker
Johnny Mercer
Penny Mordaunt
Greg Hands
Esther McVey

Labour also likely to take out Boris' old seat, Iain Duncan Smith and Jacob Rees-Mogg. Liz Truss is a toss up between Con and Lab.

I wouldn’t piss on them if they were on fire, but I don’t mind them being in opposition, hopefully will make Labour less likely to go chasing the Reform/Daily Mail vote.

Really can't stand the Lib Dem's. Never forget they are the reason tuition fees are what they are. Lifelong campaigns for free tuition, then stabbed us in the back and Ed Davy is one of the twats that voted it through with the tories. Don't forget they are the reason your children's debt is so high. Massive U-turn on their flagship free tuition policy. Could have voted it down but didn't. Google it - they abstained or voted for fees. Won't ever forgive them.

He won’t though. I hope he gets a seat, that would be the end of the Reform party as he’d have no more time to go on Question Time or LBC, would never turn up to Parliament, won’t do anything for his constituents, and will probably get done for fiddling his expenses before the first year is up (just basing this on his MEP career here).

Well, whatever the polls say now, there is only one poll that counts. But I admit I am looking forward to the Portillo moments. I am concerned about what happens after the election, the whole lot of them are surely the worst bunch of politicians I've had the misfortune to see. And I'm old so I've seen plenty.

What Farage meant was that he would continue to jump up and down shouting No, No, NO at every opportunity, as a substitute for thought.

I quite agree, she will be excellent at ensuring that the Tories are sat in 2028/9 considering who to pick as the next LOTO.

The people will express their will tomorrow.