Ed Davey as Leader of the Opposition is SO CLOSE

[noblegiraffe]

The final MRP poll from Survation puts the Lib Dems and Tories within a gnat's whisker of each other.

Sam Freedman says:
'“If any doubt arises as to which is or was at any material time the party in opposition to Her Majesty’s Government having the greatest numerical strength in the House of Commons, or as to who is or was at any material time the leader in that House of such a party, the question shall be decided for the purposes of this Act by the Speaker of the House of Commons, and his decision, certified in writing under his hand, shall be final and conclusive.”

So if one party is clearly ahead then their leader is LOTO. But if it’s more complex - say, the Tories won 75 seats and the Lib Dems 73, and then two Alliance MPs from Northern Ireland said they’d sit with the Lib Dems - well the Speaker will have to get involved and make a call.'

The thought of the Tories losing so badly that they don't even get to be the official party of opposition is within our grasp.

I've heard that the Lib Dems now think they have a chance of winning places like Witney where they didn't think they had a hope at the start.

https://tactical.vote tells you who to vote for to get the Tories out and make them irrelevant.

Ed's trying to out buffoon Boris

I’m expecting a last minute rally too but…

Bet365, who know about these things have conservatives winning 50-99 seats at 11/10, and 100-149 seats at 11/8. It’s close but it looks like under 100 seats has it. 49 seats or under is 10/1 eg not happening. High 90s very likely I think.

I do fully expect that if the Conservatives win many more than 100 seats, they'll be claiming it as a historic victory and a sign that they have Labour on the ropes. I don't expect any kind of self-examination at all.

I know nothing of their policies beyond they think humans can change sex. And as they refuse to accept reality they can screw themselves.

All I have seen is a childish man ticking off his bucket list of nonsense.

Lowest odds for Lib Dem’s is 56-65 seats at 7/2. Slightly more likely than 66 seats or over at 3/1. 30 seats or under is 66/1 which is remarkable considering they only won 15 in 2019.

LibDems still don’t know what a woman is and Clegg’s shady deals with Facebook/Meta are no better than what Tories do. Theirs is a name for when politicians start to represent big business and the two merge together into a blob.

Wouldn’t touch LibDems with a bargepole.

Ed Davey stood on my doorstep and couldn't answer any of my questions. A true politician. That dweeb should not have any power and perhaps teach philosophy or similar where questions are not questions and therefore require no answers that are answers.

That made me laugh

People seem to be forgetting that this is about Leader of the Opposition, not running the country. A straight choice between Rishi Sunak and Ed Davey.

Surely Rishi will resign on Friday? Kemi and Suella have set up their leadership campaign websites

I think Kemi has the potential to be an excellent leader of the opposition

It's not going to be Sunak is it? It'll be some ERG headbanger who will further lower the tone of the discourse towards Batshittery US Republican style.

I think Kemi has the potential to lose her seat.

I really hope this happens, and that he takes his seat on the opposite side of the despatch box by abseiling down from the ceiling, mooning Rishi on the way.

Maybe… maybe not. A lot of conservatives want him to stay on for a bit so that there is time to take stock and reflect on the defeat before rushing into a leadership election.

https://conservativehome.com/2024/06/27/sunak-might-dream-of-california-but-there-is-no-post-election-alternative-to-him-staying-on-as-leader/

I did see Steve Baker throwing his name in the ring.

Yep, latest polling agrees it’s within 1%.

I think Kemi has the potential to lose her seat.

Definitely. It’s very close but still looks like she is on for the win. It will be one to watch (declaring approx 2am)

He’ll definitely not have a seat if the polls are correct. His majority is relatively modest.

I'd a million times rather it was Rishi Sunak to be honest.

The Lib Dems won't be holding Labour's feet to the fire over gender wankery, they'll be yelling "transphobia!" if they do anything less than immediately bring in full self ID and burn the Cass report on a ceremonial pyre in Parliament Square.

Labour will have a large majority and will be able to bring in whatever they like, regardless of who the Leader of the Opposition is.

Thought Hard Man Baker was off on a high speed catamaran.

Just listen to all the pathetic sniping currently going on by the Conservatives at Starmer - 'he only wants to work part time', 'Angela Rayner's puppet' etc etc. Imagine that going on for the next 5 bloody years at PMQs. So fucking tedious.

Yeah. A situation where both the prime minister and the leader of the opposition believe that women with penises are more important than women without penises. What could possibly go wrong.

Rishi Sunak will not be the leader of the opposition. That isn’t an option on the table. He may stay on for a few months while they let the dust settle before a leadership contest, but he isn’t going to be staying on as leader of the opposition beyond that, and I think there’s still a good chance that he’ll step down immediately. The conservatives aren’t going to keep him on as leader following what is still going to be an awful result even if it’s not quite as bad as the polls predict.