How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

Sadly yes, but I’d put money on them taking a lot of votes. Not enough to be a real threat, but yes, I think due to things like immigration, reform might do surprisingly well.

Corbyn did better than predicted first time around because people weren’t worried he’d get in, they just wanted to damage May’s majority. He hadn’t shown his full colours by then either.

May basically threw that election by campaigning to bring back fox hunting and grammar schools, she was an appalling campaigner.

Yes they are. Richard Tice and Nigel Farage.

They did a deal with the Tories in the last GE to step aside so Johnson could win and Get Brexit Done.🙄 There is no such deal with Sunak and loads of Brexiteers are pissed off with the Brexit they got from the Tories. I think they'll do well this time in terms of vote share.

Yes.

There are a lot of bigots who particularly don't like the people who cross the Channel in boats.
They don't even care when some of them drown.

They'd definitely vote Reform.

There's no deal with Sunak anyway, as he isn't white.

Reform are a bunch of racists.

I'm a Tory. Will I admit it in real life? Nope.

When I do I get called evil, scum, selfish (thats one of the better ones) and physically threatened on occasion.

My family are independence supporting Scots - so we don't discuss it.

My issue is my DH who being Scottish and lifelong union member is genetically predisposed to vote labour except when I point out to him there is not a single policy they have that benefits us - he shuts up. That was certainly the case at the last election.

When the manifestos come out, I will read both as I always do. I will buy a hat and eat it if the labour one has anything in it that mean he and I are better off under about.

Household income £120K
DH retired
I work
No kids
Mortgage free
Private health

THANK YOU!

so glad others can see how the echo chambers is effecting this 'issue'. in the grand scheme of things, it is so so small fry.

Right now it's not. It's Labour by a mile. Not merely due to the recent locals, but sustained polling over years. Things would have to change a lot, more than has ever happened in the history of polling. By all means argue that it will, but let's be clear on what would need to happen.

I really can't see a big majority win for Labour. Could be coalition, could be a narrow majority. I would be surprised if the Tories win, but not especially.

You might be right in terms of voting intentions but the issue itself isn't "small fry".

If Mumsnet is unrepresentative, that's because Mumsnet users are the most likely people to have their finger on the pulse about an issue with such huge ramifications for women's rights and child safeguarding. Not because the issue is unimportant, but because others are blissfully ignorant.

Sorry, I don’t for a second buy the argument that people vote Tory to protect women’s rights. Since when have the Tories cared about anyone let alone women? 😂 If you vote Tory for your own financial gain then at least have the balls to admit it like the poster above has.

The main issues people are voting on are the Economy, the Health Service and Immigration. The Tories have failed spectacularly on all of these. They have also failed British women in every way since 2010.

A Tory vote is an Anti-woman vote.

May basically threw that election by campaigning to bring back fox hunting and grammar schools, she was an appalling campaigner.

The dementia tax didn’t do her much good either.

I’m not confident. People are very gullible and the Tories are excellent at setting up culture wars. For example, anyone with any kind of knowledge of actual policies and their effects will realise that say austerity damaged women and children disproportionately to men. They’ve constantly veered between vilifying single mothers and people from overseas, and they’re laying off single mothers for the minute so people can conveniently think they ‘know what a woman is’. Yep Boris Johnson definitely knew what a woman was, the way he’s treated his partners has been disgraceful and he could probably sniff out a vagina from a mile away. It doesn’t mean any of them are pro women. Being transphobic is not pro women.

We still don’t have equal pay, we have childcare so expensive that a lot of women leave the workplace making them reliant on often useless blokes. The CSA is shit. Men can get away with so much with skirting responsibility and this government are pro women?

Its fucking bullshit.

I worked with a trans woman once, pre op. We shared access to a toilet and we had fascinating chats about her journey. She never weed on the seat. At no point did she try and do anything with her penis to me. Just a very pleasant interesting person that I spent quite a lot of time talking to. That’s the reality, anyone who truly believes there’s this army of transwomen rapists is deluded. There may have been a few, but there’s a few of everything out there isn’t there? Not a reason to vote in a woman unfriendly party just because it’s trying to use trans people as the next scapegoat to protect us all from.

So it’s a long ranty answer mainly born of frustration with the ‘at least they know what a woman is’ sheep, but no I’m not confident.

👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼

It makes zero difference to me financially because I don't currently live in the UK.

I would previously have voted for the candidate most likely to get the Tory out but I can't do that anymore unfortunately.

So my options are to spoil my ballot, not vote at all, or vote Tory because the alternative is worse.

Are you voting in the GE @MissScarletInTheBallroom?

I am entitled to vote.

I'm not sure whether I actually will though.

It makes zero difference to me financially because I don't currently live in the UK.

Oh well that’s good to know. You vote on one single (misguided) policy, confident in the knowledge that the horrific state the country is in right now will never affect you, because you don’t live here(!) cheers

Exactly, there is a difference between being transphobic and being genuinely concerned about how trans laws are negatively impacting women! Whilst also being able to appreciate that trans people suffer their own oppression.

this is what an echo chamber causes.

most people don't think the trans issue is a top concern when it comes to all the issues effecting women which are much more pressing. There is a vocal subset of the internet (including MN) where it seems its peoples #1 Top concern. for the vast majority of women, they don't give it a thought because it is small fry in the grand scheme of things. When you look at the population, its a very small minority. Whereas the broader issues such as women's healthcare being a lottery, our maternity care shocking and traumatizing for many, lack of police/CPS involvement meaning low conviction rates when we do try to get justice the abuse we receive.

Echo chambers exist everywhere, just like the men who cry about how "family court favours women" they live in an echo chamber and hype each other to believe its the #1 issue facing ALL MEN. When its again, not the biggest issue.

Saying it is YOUR OWN top concern is fine, but framing it as something that has 'huge' ramifications on ALL women where most in reality know there are issues that effect women harder. A large percentage of women in the UK have no feelings towards the matter because it doesn't effect them.

You misunderstand me.

I'm not someone who would vote Tory because I don't want to pay VAT on my children's private school fees and pretend it was about women's rights. I have no financial skin in the game at the moment.

I have always voted in every general election since I was old enough to vote, including since I left the UK. Democracy is really important to me and the idea of being disenfranchised is unacceptable.

And up until now I have always voted for the candidate most likely to unseat the Tory in my constituency (which has sadly never happened).

But right now I am no longer able to do that because the alternative candidate is the Lib Dem, and I find the Lib Dems absolutely intolerable. I have usually voted for them previously, but not now, and probably never again. If Labour were in with a chance of winning I might have to hold my nose and vote for them, but they aren't, and on balance (knowing that Labour will almost certainly win a large majority) I'd rather have a Tory MP in my consistency than a Lib Dem.

Enough to actually vote for the Tory candidate?

I don't know. I would rather spoil my ballot. But I also really really don't want the Lib Dem to get in.

Either way, my vote is not going to contribute to a Labour victory.

So as I said, my options appear to be vote Tory, spoil my ballot or don't vote.

I have just recently gained the right to vote in the country where I live, so I might not vote, or "give" my vote to my mum (who is my proxy) to do what she likes with.

It affects all of us, globally.

bravo!

and again, reply to the rest....

it is not a major issue facing women when you compare it to those other pressing concerns which the Tories DO NOT CARE ABOUT.

Being anti-trans doesn't equal pro woman. The vast majority of women do not have strong enough feelings on the matter for it to influence their vote. Whereas i would assume a much larger amount care about Women's healthcare, prosecution rates for violence against Women and unequal pay?

Go on, speak about those for a minute. Do you TRULY believe those issues are on the same level as the trans issue for all women? That is to say do you feel the average woman will be as negatively affected by trans women as they are by those other points?