How confident do you feel that the Tories will lose?

[pinklite]

Do you feel confident? Going off what I see on social media, there is no way that they don't lose by a massive majority.

However I worry that this is just a small snapshot of the public and is not an accurate representation.

It really wouldn't surprise me if we don't have a Labour majority.

What does everybody else think the result will be?

@WoshPank I didn't say it did I was making the point that if assertions of failure are levelled at the Conservatives, their failure has not and cannot have been as great as Labour's in the last fourteen years by virtue of the fact that Labour has failed to win a national election fir the last fourteen years. Perhaps if they had won, we'd be living in a utopian world now. I somehow doubt it.

If he wins them the election they'll hail him as the second coming of the Blessed Saint Maggie.

I think there are a lot of shy Tories out there that don’t show up in polls or social media. We only see the tip of the iceberg as a representative of population online. And the more extreme views get more attention. Aggressive slogans from left wingers are normalised “Fuck the Tories/Punch a Nazi/Kill the Terfs” all perfectly acceptable and drifting towards acceptable violence. I am a life long Labour voter and I am disheartened by what has become of the party. I don’t blame Tory voters keeping quiet. As for Labours record on women’s rights, I don’t doubt some Tory MPs have quite regressive stances, but they aren’t pushing for reforms that would put women in danger. They have also had a lot more leaders and PMs than Labour, do Labour actually have a problem with female leaders? I am politically homeless but will vote primarily to keep Reform UK out.

Yes OP weird way to phrase your question and why not ask how confident you feel labour would win?
or do you not want labour to win?

They really won't. He'll be blamed for losing loads of seats and they'll buck him out anyway.

That's not a very strong point, then. Incumbent governments are judged on their records in a way that oppositions aren't. That's just the way it is. Oppositions don't get to do that much, by their nature.

It's quite evident that the mess of the last 14 years is persuasive to the electorate in a way that Labour picking the wrong Miliband or similar is not. Hence, it was a good point for the poster you quoted to make.

I was confident brexit wouldn't happen amd how wrong I was, I just am not getting my hopes up that the tories will be ousted. We are an odd nation. I truly hope Labour can take control but I have a horrible.gut feeling the tories will stay 😞

The issue for Labour is how slimy Starmer is, wooden, robotic and lacking in authenticity and integrity. No one trusts him.

We have Raynor, a Rottweiler politician

A bunch of policies that are hollow and meaningless and a muppet show of ministers. It will be mortifying if they win. For all of us.

I can’t imagine them on the world stage or dealing with a war or even pulling it together enough to really even understand the situation we are in.

I’m looking at the odds the bookies are offering. They indicate a Labour victory at the moment and they’re seldom wrong. The evidence of the local and mayoral elections also points that way. I live in what used to be a Tory stronghold and they’ve lost control of the council they dominated for decades.

It's actually pretty fascinating that someone as relatively unpopular as Starmer stands to be PM with such a thumping majority. People don't like him much at all. The success is being built on public loathing of the Tories.

Forgive my ignorance - is this representation taken from bellwether locations? Only reason I ask is during brexit I lived in a bellwether location and that indicated a positive outcome sadly that never happened. Wondering how likely it will be that it isn't correct again 😞

I’m fairly confident they wont get an overall majority. I absolutely hate Boris Johnson but he was a very popular PM for a vast number of bigoted racists in the UK. The type of people who read the Daily Mail.

Who really knows? There have been a lot of surprises like the one where Jeremy Corbyn did far better than anyone would have predicted.

To win by even a few seats Labour will need the biggest vote swing in electoral history, bigger than Blair in 1997. They are at such a low base it won't be easy.

General election: Labour would need record swing to win www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-67361138

I'm hopeful rather than confident

For those who reckon hung Parliament, what do you think the likeliest coalition is?

I'd say Labour Lib Dem in that situation. Can't see where a Tory coalition partner would come from. The Lib Dems won't do that again in a hurry, and the DUP are pretty fucked themselves.

I am 90% sure they will go but I didn’t think the country had enough stupid people to get brexit and look how that went so there is the possibility that they might stay. I honestly don’t know what more evidence anyone could need that the tories have wrecked the UK but I speak to people who don’t know a thing about current affairs let alone politics and yet they vote. Based on what?

I don't believe the LibDems would do a formal coalition. They would do confidence and supply -voting with Labour on major issues they agree with but reserving the right to vote against them on other policies. It does mean they wouldn't get any Cabinet ministers but I'm not sure that worked out well for them last time.

I think it’s far from a given that labour will get in. Look at the comments on the fail alone on the article showing how starmer is back tracking in all his pledges, total disdain, in their thousands.

i think we will see parties like reform take a lot of votes, and it could be a hung parliament, with a lot of people still voting Tory as starmer and Angela are a shit show.

Because a lot of people are not very bright and vote against their own interests.

There are some people who will always vote Tory because they do benefit from them being in power. But the people who always vote the same don’t decide the outcome of elections. The vast majority don’t benefit at all from a Tory government - they just fail to see it. (Thinks back to my childhood of Conservative voting parents who voted Conservative and then swore about what the ‘bastards’ were doing)

Broadly speaking, if you use state schools and the NHS, you have no business voting Tory.

I really don’t think that’s the case, right now it’s anyone’s win and that will become very apparent over the next few weeks, the locals and the general are very different animals.

I feel confident but live in a very liberal echo chamber in London, which also makes me nervous that I don't know the mood of the country.

i think we will see parties like reform take a lot of votes

Aren’t Reform just UKIP by another name? I don’t see them taking a lot of votes. I do see them splitting the right wing vote now that a white, bigoted toff no longer leads the Conservatives.

I think the issue this time is that, while people want the Tories gone, they don't want Labour in either. I can see a lot of votes going to Reform.

Wasn’t Brexit totally different though in that there were not the same rules about needing a certain majority? So it was ‘easier’ to get a stupid, crazy result?